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Coronavirus - the new strain III

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Aye but there's a lot of kids mate so a lot more to go if they keep schools open, the infection rate will just keep rising but the infection rate from kids will remain the same at 15% so obviously you want that high infection rate to stop or start to drop back so you close the schools and keep people in doors.

That's what the Imperial team said on Monday, they're advising the government on infection control however their head guy, Ferguson, has himself been infected.

I don't understand. It's too late. Good night.

Tomorrow I'm going to buy some new hi fi to cheer myself up
 
Ha, ha, but at least they can send their kids to school;) Teachers actually only get paid for the days they work, their salary doesn’t cover holidays. In actuality they may be able to roster teachers some time off if the number of kids in school drops. Let’s be honest, no one is going to jump for joy at having holidays taken off them.

can you provide your source for your claim that schools will not close completely over Easter and Summer as usual?
Also do you mean supply teachers with your claim about holiday pay?
I worked for 35 years and never failed to get paid for every August. I never worked an August though. Hell, we were even expected to supply a sick note if ill during an August.
 
Testing is just so important. In a way more so to find out who has had it and one hopes has immunity so they can get on with stuff. I've got nowt to do now so if I was lucky enough to get through I would certainly volunteer.

Testing is very important to get a TRUE overview of what is happening with the virus in each country. However, in Germany the chemicals needed to carryout the test are getting scarcer, this was quietly reported on the local north german version of the BBC. I am sure they will find some more (at highly inflated prices?), however at the minute too many people are getting tested for peace of mind when they don't really have anything wrong with them.

Perhaps this is also the case in the UK and the governments knows it. Thus you limit the testing to a minimum at present to preserve your stocks of testing material to be able to keep testing later when the number of people with the virus really kicks in.
 
This virus IS NEW in rhe human population and we currently don't have any immunity to it.

In order to get immunity you have to get infected. A bit of a problem there with ~3% mortality.

Surely the mortality rate is based on the number of deaths divided by the number of people being tested? That's just the tip of the iceberg, as there are many out there with mild or no symptoms that aren't being tested, so the actual death rate is going to be a lot lower than official figures.
 
can you provide your source for your claim that schools will not close completely over Easter and Summer as usual?
Also do you mean supply teachers with your claim about holiday pay?
I worked for 35 years and never failed to get paid for every August. I never worked an August though. Hell, we were even expected to supply a sick note if ill during an August.
It is how the pay is calculated, teachers salary is based upon 195 days work but is divided by 12 equal months. This is a technicality but factual. My other half receives directives from the DFE, this may not be public as yet. I’d like to think the summer holidays will be unaffected.

Ultimately there are a myriad of factors pertaining to CV, I don’t agree with closing Schools personally & making a distinction for key workers/special needs/low incomes etc is problematic. Supply teachers will be in great demand over the coming months. Schools could be shut when they should be open & open when..
 
Surely the mortality rate is based on the number of deaths divided by the number of people being tested? That's just the tip of the iceberg, as there are many out there with mild or no symptoms that aren't being tested, so the actual death rate is going to be a lot lower than official figures.

I would have thought the mortality rates quoted are more likely to be a percentage of positive tests, the unknown that would give more accurate context being the positives or ex-positives among the untested. The death numbers look horrendous when presented this way and on a personal level, every single one is when you can put a name and face on a front page. The annual death numbers from flu in a bad winter would look pretty grim if they were ever reported this way and this virus is worse.
 
It is how the pay is calculated, teachers salary is based upon 195 days work but is divided by 12 equal months. This is a technicality but factual. My other half receives directives from the DFE, this may not be public as yet. I’d like to think the summer holidays will be unaffected.

Ultimately there are a myriad of factors pertaining to CV, I don’t agree with closing Schools personally & making a distinction for key workers/special needs/low incomes etc is problematic. Supply teachers will be in great demand over the coming months. Schools could be shut when they should be open & open when..
1265 hours over 195 days if you want to get proper technical!
 
I’m trying to be positive. You would like to think that some lessons will have been learned.

Any basis for this upbeat prediction? History which is an exact science, would appear to suggest that the 20% working for the state, unionised labour and banks, who can hold the country to ransom will do ok with business as usual, but for the rest it will be gruel for several years.
 
It is how the pay is calculated, teachers salary is based upon 195 days work but is divided by 12 equal months. This is a technicality but factual. My other half receives directives from the DFE, this may not be public as yet. I’d like to think the summer holidays will be unaffected.

Ultimately there are a myriad of factors pertaining to CV, I don’t agree with closing Schools personally & making a distinction for key workers/special needs/low incomes etc is problematic. Supply teachers will be in great demand over the coming months. Schools could be shut when they should be open & open when..

What a mealy mouthed piece of nonsense about pay!
So you are saying that the statutory right to 28 days paid leave that those hours confer under employment law don’t apply to teachers?
if your wife gets directives how come you were so uninformed yesterday, claiming the closure weren’t compulsory?
Did she know what was becoming before the announcement? I bet not.
 
Any basis for this upbeat prediction? History which is an exact science, would appear to suggest that the 20% working for the state, unionised labour and banks, who can hold the country to ransom will do ok with business as usual, but for the rest it will be gruel for several years.

are you a yank coming out with drivel like that?
 
This virus IS NEW in rhe human population and we currently don't have any immunity to it.

In order to get immunity you have to get infected. A bit of a problem there with ~3% mortality.

How do most people recover then? It's our own immune systems, partly inherited, partly developed through our own exposures. Sure it's a new virus but it's a variant of other similar viruses. The immune systems picks up that it's a viral attack and sets up its defences. Here's some detail

https://www.immunology.org/public-i...athogens-and-disease/immune-responses-viruses
 
On a positive note, this terrible situation may bring some positive changes to public policy over the next 5-10 years.


Unfortunately human nature being what it is, I doubt it. People have short term memories and after being in lockdown people will want to return to "normal" as soon as possible with eager to be elected politicians keen to promise that. If you look at the financial assistance, its more business based with people almost as an afterthought, if you look at the companies screaming for government cash a lot of them have spent vast amounts on share buybacks which has benefitted share holders, so let the shareholders suffer but it will not happen, until shareholders suffer for not taking the risks of a globalised regulation free market into account nothing will change but as the lobby groups are so powerful and so many politicians have a finance background, the tendancy will be for this to continue.
 
do you really think so? government is borrowing hand over fist - we will see a new policy of max-austerity
It will be tough to run economies on austerity lines in a post-virus world: would probably need fascism. Not impossible I suppose.

Interesting thread here on the limits of the Imperial paper and why the choices now are basically paying workers to ride out the crisis or brutal martial law: you can't expect people to co-operate voluntarily when you're asking one section of society (young, poor, workers) to make massive sacrifices for another (older, which tends to mean wealthier). Struggling to see why this would be much different on the other side of the crisis. I would also expect the power of the media - which is basically what allowed the Tories to manage milder versions of this problem (austerity 1, Brexit) - to be much diminished once it becomes clear how many people they've helped kill.
https://twitter.com/causalinf/status/1240460151519424512?s=21
 
If we're massively underestimating the number of people infected, because we aren't counting the asymptomatic infected doesn't that imply we're also underestimating R0 (how contagious it is)? This'll mean we need a higher %age with antibodies to achieve herd immunity.

Are asymptomatic people (e.g. kids) less likely to pass the virus on, since it seems to be spread mainly by coughs?
 
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