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Coronavirus - the new strain III

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jackbarron

Chelsea, London
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/18/coronavirus-uk-expert-advice-wrong

"Scientists have been sounding the alarm on coronavirus for months. Why did Britain fail to act"

Above is what Richard Horton, the editor of The Lancet, has witten in The Guardian. He is a qualified surgeon and The Lancet is "among the world's oldest, most prestigious, and best known general medical journals."

"The warnings from China and Italy were loud and clear," he says. "But politicians and their advisers wasted valuable time – and lives will be lost as a result."

After what happened with Sars, the Chinese clamped down immediately when Covid-19 cases started coming through in Wuhan. They warned that the mortality rate was high and the virus had pandemic potential. People in China were dying from viral pneumonia brought on by Covid-19.

"But medical and scientific advisers to the UK government ignored their warnings. For unknown reasons they waited. And watched ...

"After weeks of inaction, the government announced a sudden U-turn on Monday, declaring that new modelling by scientists at Imperial College had convinced them to change their initial plans.

"Many journalists, led by the BBC, reported that “the science had changed” and so the government had responded accordingly. But this interpretation of events is wrong. The science has been the same since January. What changed is that government advisers at last understood what had really taken place in China."

Richard Horton says when the system returns to normal difficult questions will have to be asked. The UK can't afford to fail again, because we may not have a second chance.

I'd argue the Covid-19 pandemic is a political issue around the world as much a health one. Trump calling it the Chinese virus today is an example.

So is the way Johnson and his government have been handling it, given how slow they have been to clamp down or test in face of evidence from around the world.

The Tory government are giving £316 billion in loans and grants to save businesses, but they still haven't come up with a solution for the many who have already lost their jobs.

£73 a week on Universal Credit and £94 on sickness benefit won't go very far. It also takes six weeks to get Universal Credit.

That's the reaity of what the Tory Party, Labour and the Lib-Dems, have left us with.

Jack
 
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Apparently the latest death rate is 3.4% compared to less than 0.5% for Asian flu of 1968, which would be your reference point, it more infectious than flu and no one has any natural immunity, so no you will not have seen anything like it in sixty years.

People do have some inbuilt immune response to viral attacks, you just have to hope that it kicks in rapidly enough. It seems that it does in the majority of people thankfully
 
There may be an obvious answer to this and if so, I'm sorry. Can someone explain to me why the number of cases peaks? I mean, why is the graph a sombrero? Why doesn't it go on until heard immunity is reached?

Is it because of its expected behaviour in Summer weather? Or is it just because of social distancing? Or because of heard immunity? Or what?

And why will there be subsequent cycles?
 
Just as well your sample isn’t a medic...
Ha, ha, but at least they can send their kids to school;) Teachers actually only get paid for the days they work, their salary doesn’t cover holidays. In actuality they may be able to roster teachers some time off if the number of kids in school drops. Let’s be honest, no one is going to jump for joy at having holidays taken off them.
 
Another question. Why will closing schools slow the spread of the virus? I just don't understand, I think I must be missing something obvious. Is it to do with protecting teachers?
 
There may be an obvious answer to this and if so, II'm sorry. Can someone explain to me why the number of cases peaks? I mean, why is the graph a sombrero? Why doesn't it go on until heard immunity is reached?

Is it because of its expected behaviour in Summer weather? Or is it just because of social distancing? Or because of heard immunity? Or what?

And why will there be subsequent cycles?

The graph will peak when enough people have been infected and then recover presumed to have some immunity from future infection or people isolate effectively. The virus cannot then spread so effectively. At the moment one person infects 2 or 3 others so it romps away, get that below 1 person and it will die back. If the population of recoverees can be reinfected it will cycle. It will also cycle if all the people in isolation come out but there's still no vaccine.
 
Testing is just so important. In a way more so to find out who has had it and one hopes has immunity so they can get on with stuff. I've got nowt to do now so if I was lucky enough to get through I would certainly volunteer.
 
Another question. Why will closing schools slow the spread of the virus? I just don't understand, I think I must be missing something obvious. Is it to do with protecting teachers?

Infections of around 15% are being attributed to kids spreading the virus.
 
Another question. Why will closing schools slow the spread of the virus? I just don't understand, I think I must be missing something obvious. Is it to do with protecting teachers?
Kids going to their grandparents for the weekend?
 
I think the 'science' did change - the Imperial College report (Report 9 - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf) that's being quoted a lot here was issued on 16 March and the Government's approach changed after.

The science didn't change, according to Richard Horton, the editor of The Lancet. He is a trained doctor/surgeon. (see my post above).

"What changed is that government advisers at last understood what had really taken place in China."

Jack
 
There may be an obvious answer to this and if so, I'm sorry. Can someone explain to me why the number of cases peaks? I mean, why is the graph a sombrero? Why doesn't it go on until heard immunity is reached?

Is it because of its expected behaviour in Summer weather? Or is it just because of social distancing? Or because of heard immunity? Or what?

And why will there be subsequent cycles?

Lecture 24: patterns of infection See Flint et al, Chapter 16.
https://slideplayer.com/slide/3863512/
 
It hasn’t gone down well with in our house. Small sample size but is has not gone down well at all, have been vented at for a bit tonight from the better half.
Sit her down, tell her you love her, and that the world is about to change forever. You're both very fortunate that she has a teaching job: you should have an income over the next year(s).

This might help, I don't know. I found it chilling.

 
People do have some inbuilt immune response to viral attacks, you just have to hope that it kicks in rapidly enough. It seems that it does in the majority of people thankfully
This virus IS NEW in rhe human population and we currently don't have any immunity to it.

In order to get immunity you have to get infected. A bit of a problem there with ~3% mortality.
 
But haven't they already done it? Haven't they already infected their teachers and their parents and indeed each other?

Aye but there's a lot of kids mate so a lot more to go if they keep schools open, the infection rate will just keep rising but the infection rate from kids will remain the same at 15% so obviously you want that high infection rate to stop or start to drop back so you close the schools and keep people in doors.

That's what the Imperial team said on Monday, they're advising the government on infection control however their head guy, Ferguson, has himself been infected.
 
Sit her down, tell her you love her, and that the world is about to change forever. You're both very fortunate that she has a teaching job: you should have an income over the next year(s).

This might help, I don't know. I found it chilling.

The two are not mutually exclusive, yes we are lucky & yes she is not happy about potentially losing holidays. My own job is potentially under threat so I am aware how difficult things can become, but, yes, in a lot of ways I am still lucky.
 
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