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Coronavirus - the new strain II

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Tony L said:
My suspicion is that will ultimately be correct, though we are still on an exponential growth curve and the number of severe cases look set to overwhelm the NHS just as they have the (better resourced) health service in Italy. The problem is Covid 19 seems extremely infectious, hugely more so than flu, and the death rate looks closer to 1%, which is 10x that of flu. The death rate certainly seems lower the better the testing regime of the country, e.g. South Korea.
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50% of deaths in Italy had at least 3 contributory factors. The data is not clear on this but it is not good
 
Ponty said:
Completely agree. They have to (and are already starting to), keep the wheels turning with helicopter money. That will have consequences once we are out of this but I don’t see any other option now.
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I would expect my brother-in-law who is an ex-trader in goldman sachs etc to laugh at such a suggestion. The states are going to start doing this soon. Not smart enough to work out the maths but it has to be the least worst option. Is there any economic expert (not a brexiteer :)) in the house?
 
doctorf said:
I think Garyi's post above is of relevance.
There is something not quite right about all this.
I suspect the number of cases is massively under-estimated, meaning that the mortality rate is much lower than generally published.
In saying that, I haven't really much concrete evidence apart from a hunch, having been a medic for 40 years.
It just doesn't add up.
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Thanks for the reply and yes I get your reasoning. My only counter is the increase in the number of cases/deaths in Italy seems alarmingly high given they have been on lockdown for 14 days, but I appreciate their demographic and already overwhelmed health service may well be partly responsible.

I can't help but feel some more stringent measures might be needed to persuade the population that they need to stay at home as much as possible and so that we don't go the same way, but it is just a feeling rather than being based on any science.
 
SteveT said:
Latest announcement re schools is rather crackpot. What is a key worker? Kids from vulnerable backgrounds, special needs are also excluded. Does the parent of said child have to bring proof of occupation, bouncers on the school gates? Either keep them open or shut them.

Only a complete and utter moron would think what you have posted let alone posted it on a public forum. If you had taken the trouble to LISTEN to what BJ said and if you knew anything about what goes on in schools which you clearly don't you would know that vulnerable children entitled to Free school dinners, children with mental health difficulties and other medical and social problems the children who have statements, children with Special Needs and the children of Key Workers need special consideration.
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Hilarious misrepresentation of what I said. My other half is a head teacher, in reality you will have schools in some areas pretty much full & others empty, it is also advisory not compulsory. I have not listened to a word of what BJ said, I am going on the real problems that this will cause school leaders. Personally I think Schools should be kept open where possible & parents should be allowed to use their own judgement on whether they keep their children at home. I am aware of free school meals, was even on them myself in the 80s for a short while. The list of key workers has not been issued yet btw.
 
Philim said:
Looking further ahead if we thought 2009 austerity was bad......
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Yeah, like a quack with a bleeding cup, it just weakened the patient further. Witness the present state of the NHS. ISTM the implication of your post is that you are blissfully ignorant of the connection between these events
 
doctorf said:
I think Garyi's post above is of relevance.
There is something not quite right about all this.
I suspect the number of cases is massively under-estimated, meaning that the mortality rate is much lower than generally published.
In saying that, I haven't really much concrete evidence apart from a hunch, having been a medic for 40 years.
It just doesn't add up.
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Takes a month to kill you and lots of people have only just got it. China kept a lid on it by containing the spread and massively and rapidly increasing healthcare capacity. We’ve done neither, so...

Calm before the storm, as Varadkar put it last night. We need to get our heads around that.
 
cooky1257 said:
Some info emerging that loss of taste and smell is a common symptom alongside the more obvious. I’ve got one son home from Australia With sniffles and can’t taste or smell anything...
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My wife came down with something 7 weeks ago now, persistent dry cough, and complete loss of taste and smell. No fever though. Took 6 weeks to get rid of. Coronavirus? Hard to tell. Rest of us in the house, touch wood, have not come down with it, and my elderly parents haven't either.

Interesting though if that does come out as a symptom.
 
Woodface said:
Hilarious misrepresentation of what I said. My other half is a head teacher, in reality you will have schools in some areas pretty much full & others empty, it is also advisory not compulsory. I have not listened to a word of what BJ said, I am going on the real problems that this will cause school leaders. Personally I think Schools should be kept open where possible & parents should be allowed to use their own judgement on whether they keep their children at home. I am aware of free school meals, was even on them myself in the 80s for a short while. The list of key workers has not been issued yet btw.
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It is compulsory.
It has already been announced that health workers, police and delivery drivers are key workers. Others will be announced soon.
You certainly didn't listen to a word he said!
 
doctorf said:
I think Garyi's post above is of relevance.
There is something not quite right about all this.
I suspect the number of cases is massively under-estimated, meaning that the mortality rate is much lower than generally published.
In saying that, I haven't really much concrete evidence apart from a hunch, having been a medic for 40 years.
It just doesn't add up.
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You may well be right about prevalence but there is one inarguable fact- the mortality rate in absolute terms is really big and the resource required in attempting to control it is crippling.
 
TheDecameron said:
You may well be right about prevalence but there is one inarguable fact- the mortality rate in absolute terms is really big and the resource required to control it is crippling.
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You are correct, Dec.
I just find it all very illogical. perhaps I’m just an optimist, having never seen anything like it in my 60+ years.
 
Joe P said:
This COVID-19 infographic is worth a repost, but note that it was updated two days ago. The data are ever changing.

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/

Joe
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Thanks for posting that one, Joe.

The Infection Trajectories (Growth by Outbreaks) chart is interesting*. My GF's daughter's BF works at Esri in CA, USA. GF and I have been looking at both the WHO and PAHO dynamic distribution maps. These are generally a day behind, which makes rates of increase all the more shocking tomorrow (IYSWIM).

Then again, we didn't have this tech so freely available back when my late sister was on the front lines of SARS Protocol. We were more information isolated back then, and possibly in less of a panic for it.

Craig

* What I am mostly seeing on this one is that our southern border should have been closed to other than commercial traffic weeks ago.
 
doctorf said:
You are correct, Dec.
I just find it all very illogical. perhaps I’m just an optimist, having never seen anything like it in my 60+ years.
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Apparently the latest death rate is 3.4% compared to less than 0.5% for Asian flu of 1968, which would be your reference point, it more infectious than flu and no one has any natural immunity, so no you will not have seen anything like it in sixty years.
 
Must be a lot more cases than registered as they were not testing and telling people to self isolate unless they had severe breathing difficulty . When I last checked there was 1 case locally but I know of 4 people who have a mild form which have not been registered , but they have not been tested
 
Some 40 000 people to be charged in Italy with breaking the lockdown, some face up to 12 years. Apparently some were holding parties and BBQs over the last weekend...
 
TheDecameron said:
Yeah, like a quack with a bleeding cup, it just weakened the patient further. Witness the present state of the NHS. ISTM the implication of your post is that you are blissfully ignorant of the connection between these events
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Dec, do you spend your whole life poking people with a stick looking for a fight?
 
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