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Brexit: give me a positive effect (2023 ‘Epic Fail’ box set edition)

ff1d1l said:
Yet, oddly enough, no sign of Grexit...
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Which has absolutely nothing to do with Britain's (lack of) culpability for the Greek fiasco.

In regard of your point (or lack of it) the Euro was designed precisely to trap its members into the wider EU project. The option to leave the Euro is simply not there, most particularly for a small economy such as Greece. The government had no choice other than to bow to the precise demands of the EU/IMF/ECB troika, which imposed sharp austerity and disposal of public assets reducing Greek GDP by 25%, destroyed pensions and livelihoods and caused widespread unemployment, particularly amongst the youth. It wasn't exactly popular at the time - depictions of the fallen Saint Angela wearing jackboots were widespread. But it's OK, of course, because the Euro was saved, and the German and French banks creamed it in.
 
PsB said:
The Greek crisis was, as the name suggests, primarily a Greek debt issue created by pre-existing Greek balance of payments and budget deficit issues. Greek debt (hoovered up by "clever" European banks betting the higher rates on Greek debt were essentially risk free) suddenly became high risk when capital flows to Greece dried up after the GFC. The effect would have been similar had the debt been issued in dollars. ISTR British banks had also been buying Greek bonds in search of higher yields, and found themselves on the hook for significant sums, too.

I know you worry a lot about the Greeks, so short 2024 update:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/greek-economy-surges-after-decade-pain-2024-04-18/
https://www.ekathimerini.com/economy/1237853/oecd-greek-economy-to-grow-2-in-2024/
Things are still difficult for many Greeks, but unemployment and gov. debt are back to pre-crisis levels, tourism is booming, tax evasion is down, and the country is still in the eurozone. Indeed, the only point on which most Greeks seemed to agree during the crisis was the need to keep the euro.
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Sure, Greece is in clover now. The next tinderbox may well be your own adopted country, which will be a somewhat bigger fish to fry. Do you think Ursula and the permatanned convicted crook Christine are up to it? We must hope so, I guess.
 
eternumviti said:
Which has absolutely nothing to do with Britain's (lack of) culpability for the Greek fiasco.

In regard of your point (or lack of it) the Euro was designed precisely to trap its members into the wider EU project. The option to leave the Euro is simply not there, most particularly for a small economy such as Greece. The government had no choice other than to bow to the precise demands of the EU/IMF/ECB troika, which imposed sharp austerity and disposal of public assets reducing Greek GDP by 25%, destroyed pensions and livelihoods and caused widespread unemployment, particularly amongst the youth. It wasn't exactly popular at the time - depictions of the fallen Saint Angela wearing jackboots were widespread. But it's OK, of course, because the Euro was saved, and the German and French banks creamed it in.
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You're overthinking it. My point is despite Greece's treatment being used in the UK as a brexit justification, Greece doesn't seem to resent its alleged treatment enough to leave the EU.
Sorry if I didn't make that unambiguous and crystal clear, saving you another word salad.
 
ff1d1l said:
You're overthinking it. My point is despite Greece's treatment being used in the UK as a brexit justification, Greece doesn't seem to resent its alleged treatment enough to leave the EU.
Sorry if I didn't make that unambiguous and crystal clear, saving you another word salad.
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It resented it a great deal at the time, but unlike the UK it never had the option of leaving the EU even if it had wanted to, on account if its membership of the Euro. I made that crystal clear and unambiguous. Your apparent inability to grasp that is your own issue, not mine.
 
eternumviti said:
It resented it a great deal at the time, but unlike the UK it never had the option of leaving the EU even if it had wanted to, on account if its membership of the Euro. I made that crystal clear and unambiguous. Your inability to grasp that is your own issue, not mine.
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Of course it could have Grexited if it wanted. There was even talk of that at the time. I don't accept being in the Euro completely removes the possibility.
It could even revert to the Drachma.
If it wanted to Grexit.
Which it doesn't.
I'll accept it would be more difficult, though, which is a point in favour of us adopting the Euro when we rejoin.
 
eternumviti said:
Sure, Greece is in clover now. The next tinderbox may well be your own adopted country, which will be a somewhat bigger fish to fry. Do you think Ursula and the permatanned convicted crook Christine are up to it? We must hope so, I guess.
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Ursula's main concern, at this stage, is her re-election. It is proving a bit trickier than she expected.
As for France and its role in the impending collapse of the EU, best to wait for the results in a couple of weeks' time before getting your hopes up too much.
 
eternumviti said:
It resented it a great deal at the time, but unlike the UK it never had the option of leaving the EU even if it had wanted to, on account if its membership of the Euro. I made that crystal clear and unambiguous. Your apparent inability to grasp that is your own issue, not mine.
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This is, of course, factually incorrect: have you already forgotten about Article 50?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_from_the_European_Union
As for the euro, there is some debate about whether a MS can leave or not. But leaving the EU would surely make the point moot.
 
eternumviti said:
Sure, Greece is in clover now. The next tinderbox may well be your own adopted country, which will be a somewhat bigger fish to fry. Do you think Ursula and the permatanned convicted crook Christine are up to it? We must hope so, I guess.
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And they remained in the EU. Clever. Whilst the Great Britannia sinks...in rivers of schiit.
 
Tik-tok. Sounds like a learning aid for 3 year olds, and has evolved from an app for teenagers to share wobbly phone vids of themselves doing jerky dance routines to rap music to the globe's biggest social media thingy, subject to a possible ban in the US due to national security issues yet apparently being relied upon as a path to electoral success by the UK's halfwit politicians, and you want me to download it to my phone to watch something about Brexit by some nonentity who presumably is opposed to it?

It's a lovely day, the garden beckons, I've got work to do.
 
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eternumviti said:
Tik-tok. Sounds like a learning aid for 3 year olds, and has evolved from an app for teenagers to share wobbly phone vids of themselves doing jerky dance routines to rap music to the globe's biggest social media thingy, subject to a possible ban in the US due to national security issues yet apparently being relied upon as a path to electoral success by the UK's halfwits politicians, and you want me to download it to my phone to watch something about Brexit by some nonentity who presumably is opposed to it?

It's a lovely day, the garden beckons, I've got work to do.
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I didn't realise you had to download the app to watch the video.

https://www.tiktok.com/video/7383666558532472097
 
The German Businessman isn’t coming to the rescue, in fact he’s swinging punches now on Brexit Island. An indication of the lack of bargaining power the UK Govt has in preserving what’s left of its auto industry

www.theguardian.com

Vauxhall owner says car plants could shut unless ‘stupid’ UK rules change

Stellantis says it will decide in ‘less than a year’ whether to keep Ellesmere Port and Luton production lines open
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
PsB said:
This is, of course, factually incorrect: have you already forgotten about Article 50?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_from_the_European_Union
As for the euro, there is some debate about whether a MS can leave or not. But leaving the EU would surely make the point moot.
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They would have had to have their own thick corbyn in opposition prepared to whip to vote for A50.
Jesus, I'll never forgive that thick twat for doing that. How different things might be now.
 
eternumviti said:
Sure, Greece is in clover now. The next tinderbox may well be your own adopted country, which will be a somewhat bigger fish to fry. Do you think Ursula and the permatanned convicted crook Christine are up to it? We must hope so, I guess.
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Now that Greece is in the clear and we have the benefit of hindsight, what would have done to resolve the Greek debt crisis?
 
ff1d1l said:
Of course it could have Grexited if it wanted. There was even talk of that at the time. I don't accept being in the Euro completely removes the possibility.
It could even revert to the Drachma.
If it wanted to Grexit.
Which it doesn't.
I'll accept it would be more difficult, though, which is a point in favour of us adopting the Euro when we rejoin.
Click to expand...

PsB said:
This is, of course, factually incorrect: have you already forgotten about Article 50?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_from_the_European_Union
As for the euro, there is some debate about whether a MS can leave or not. But leaving the EU would surely make the point moot.
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Yes, dry old facts - and consequences. Of course I know that - on paper - an EZ member can leave the union. It would be interesting to see the consequences of it actually happening. In Greece during the crisis perhaps a 50% collapse in the Drachma relative to the €, with some €350bn of outstanding Euro-denominated bailout loans, leading to a run on the banks, collapse of private businesses and the economy wiping out of savings and pensions, mass unemployment and rapid contagion spreading across the EU and beyond - or maybe not. We can only speculate, but that possibility informed the response of the EU/IMF/ECB, as it may well have destroyed the precious Euro project, and after all, what's a dozen or so years of abject misery and austerity for a few Greek peasants when the future of the project is at stake. The consequences of the same thing happening in one the EU's major economies - let's say, for example, France - would make the Greek crisis, and for that matter, brexit, seem like an afternoon stroll by the seaside on a sunny bank holiday.

PsB, you are right in that the possibility of an EZ member leaving the Euro but remaining in the EU is moot - there is no facility for it in the treaties. I've seen it speculated that the country would have to leave the bloc and reapply, but accession rules require Euro membership, so it might present an intractable. Anyway, they'd have other issues on their hands.

ff1d1l said:
...which is a point in favour of us adopting the Euro when we rejoin.
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Jesus Christ, you really are a believer!
 
TheDecameron said:
The German Businessman isn’t coming to the rescue, in fact he’s swinging punches now on Brexit Island. An indication of the lack of bargaining power the UK Govt has in preserving what’s left of its auto industry

www.theguardian.com

Vauxhall owner says car plants could shut unless ‘stupid’ UK rules change

Stellantis says it will decide in ‘less than a year’ whether to keep Ellesmere Port and Luton production lines open
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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From what I can see, none of that has anything to do with brexit.
 
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