Brexit: give me a positive effect (2022 remastered edition)

[TheDecameron]

Hitchins is only sayin what millions is thinkin. An ethnically purified, walled off quintessence of Camelot reimagined by Nadine Dorries,with a Pantheon housing all the greats: Churchill, Henry VIII, Barbara Windsor, Nigel Farage, Princess Margaret and many more. Richard Dyson will develop an industrial marine blower to waft the great unwashed on their Li-lo’s up beyond the Tweed.

 

[ks.234]

No. Brexit was about avoiding the EU regulations that could affect the management of trillions of £, as offshored in the Caimans and Jersey, by the rich sponsors of the tories.

I genuinely believe that anything else was simply a smokescreen to push through the "deal", regardless of it's implications or associated lies.

All our off shore tax havens seemed to work quite well with EU regulations. While both the UK and the EU will talk the talk about clamping down on tax avoidance, I’m not sure that actually doing anything about it is more or less likely under Social Democracy than it is under Toryism. Both bow down to the same Gods

 

[ks.234]

Are you saying that house prices haven't increased sharply over the last 10 years, and that the market is not overheating?

No, what I said was that house prices have increased regardless of interest rates or QE. In fact there have been steeper rises in times of high interest rates and in time with no QE.

The market is overheating, but to look at interest rates and QE as casual factors does not bear scrutiny. A more likely cause is half a century of Tory economic ideology based on flogging everything off to the lowest bidder then standing back and wondering where our infrastructure and long term economic planning has gone

 

[Joe Hutch]

Was there really someone here making such a foolish comment? Which "race" was that, the Celts, the Saxons, the Normans or some later iteration of our population over the previous 2 thousand years or so?

To be fair, he was a bit confused about the meaning of the word 'race' as opposed to the word 'ethnicity'. But the questions remain; what is an English ethnicity, and, even assuming such a thing exists, why was Brexit necessary to 'preserve' it?

 

[eternumviti]

No, what I said was that house prices have increased regardless of interest rates or QE. In fact there have been steeper rises in times of high interest rates and in time with no QE.

The market is overheating, but to look at interest rates and QE as casual factors does not bear scrutiny. A more likely cause is half a century of Tory economic ideology based on flogging everything off to the lowest bidder then standing back and wondering where our infrastructure and long term economic planning has gone

So you are saying, then, that historically low interest rates over a full decade is not a causal factor in an overheating house market, nor pouring funny money into the coffers of the asset holder?

You also appear to be positing that the economies of most of the western world have been run by the British Tory party over the same decade, given that house price inflation is not somehow limited to the UK, but is endemic.

Don't get me wrong, I have every sympathy for your sentiments regarding successive conservative governments, but I'm not sure that your analysis of cause and effect is entirely logical.

 

[TheDecameron]

To be fair, he was a bit confused about the meaning of the word 'race' as opposed to the word 'ethnicity'. But the questions remain; what is an English ethnicity, and, even assuming such a thing exists, why was Brexit necessary to 'preserve' it?

What bit of taking back control of our laws and our border don’t you get?

 

[ks.234]

So you are saying, then, that historically low interest rates over a full decade is not a causal factor in an overheating house market, nor pouring funny money into the coffers of the asset holder?

You also appear to be positing that the economies of most of the western world have been run by the British Tory party over the same decade, given that house price inflation is not somehow limited to the UK, but is endemic.

Don't get me wrong, I have every sympathy for your sentiments regarding successive conservative governments, but I'm not sure that your analysis of cause and effect is entirely logical.

As ever, beware sentences that being with “So”!

If you take a longer view than just the last 10 years, apart from 2008, house prices have risen at times of higher interest rates as well as lower and at time of QE and no QE

If house prices have risen with higher interest rates and with lower interest rates, the causal link between low interest rates and high house prices is not made, and we need to look at other causes.

The steepest rise in house prices happened between 2000 and 2005 when interest rates were 4% and 5%

There was another steep(ish) rise between 1985 and 1990 when interest rates of 15% seemed to have little or no impact.

 

[PsB]

Alternatively, it could just mean that house prices increase with inflation, surely not a controversial idea. Inflation then brings higher interest rates. But that doesn't mean the higher interest rates were the cause of the increasing house prices.
You would also have to deflate those house prices using the correct inflation rates to see what the increase in house prices means in real terms.

 

[ks.234]

So you are saying, then, that historically low interest rates over a full decade is not a causal factor in an overheating house market, nor pouring funny money into the coffers of the asset holder?

You also appear to be positing that the economies of most of the western world have been run by the British Tory party over the same decade, given that house price inflation is not somehow limited to the UK, but is endemic.

Don't get me wrong, I have every sympathy for your sentiments regarding successive conservative governments, but I'm not sure that your analysis of cause and effect is entirely logical.

QE, or ‘funny money’ is a little more difficult to see what impact it has had. It was a stupid idea that was the worst possible way to achieve it’s stated objectives and failed miserably as a consequence. But as most of QE seems to still be sat around in bank reserves, which might make some people feel richer, I doubt it has had a great impact on housing prices.

If you want to look at real causes of house price inflation, you need to look at the push start given by Thatcher selling off houses cheap at the bottom end and when that had run it’s course the “pull” effect of London Laundromat and the influx of dodgy oligarch money from the collapse of the USSR post 2000.

 

[Mr_Sukebe]

All our off shore tax havens seemed to work quite well with EU regulations. While both the UK and the EU will talk the talk about clamping down on tax avoidance, I’m not sure that actually doing anything about it is more or less likely under Social Democracy than it is under Toryism. Both bow down to the same Gods

As an example, check this article:
https://taxjustice.net/2021/07/02/what-does-brexit-mean-for-tax-havens-and-the-city-of-london/

In short, Brexit most certainly allows the slide towards ignorance of both existing AND new tax regulations as implemented by the EU.
It's almost as though the government is putting the benefits to the few above the benefits to the broad majority...

 

[eternumviti]

QE, or ‘funny money’ is a little more difficult to see what impact it has had. It was a stupid idea that was the worst possible way to achieve it’s stated objectives and failed miserably as a consequence. But as most of QE seems to still be sat around in bank reserves, which might make some people feel richer, I doubt it has had a great impact on housing prices.

If you want to look at real causes of house price inflation, you need to look at the push start given by Thatcher selling off houses cheap at the bottom end and when that had run it’s course the “pull” effect of London Laundromat and the influx of dodgy oligarch money from the collapse of the USSR post 2000.

So (whoops!), to labour a point, was Mrs Thatcher the PM of France, Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, the US etc. Or, far more relevantly to the point that I am labouring, was BJ, Theresa May, or David Cameron?

 

[PsB]

QE, or ‘funny money’ is a little more difficult to see what impact it has had. It was a stupid idea that was the worst possible way to achieve it’s stated objectives and failed miserably as a consequence. But as most of QE seems to still be sat around in bank reserves, which might make some people feel richer, I doubt it has had a great impact on housing prices.

If you want to look at real causes of house price inflation, you need to look at the push start given by Thatcher selling off houses cheap at the bottom end and when that had run it’s course the “pull” effect of London Laundromat and the influx of dodgy oligarch money from the collapse of the USSR post 2000.

QE fuels house prices by depressing interest rates to 0. With interest rates <1% over 15-25 years (fixed rates), borrowers can suddenly borrow more and longer, and can afford much higher prices. The effect can be seen all over Europe.

 

[ks.234]

As an example, check this article:
https://taxjustice.net/2021/07/02/what-does-brexit-mean-for-tax-havens-and-the-city-of-london/

In short, Brexit most certainly allows the slide towards ignorance of both existing AND new tax regulations as implemented by the EU.
It's almost as though the government is putting the benefits to the few above the benefits to the broad majority...

Please don’t imagine that I am an apologist for this Tory Government. They are without doubt up to their eyebrows in corruption on both sides of a legal line. But they were when we’re in the EU as well as out. Osbourne quite deliberately turned London into a Laundromat for criminal money as soon as he could, but he did that while we were in the EU. All governments talk about tackling tax avoidance, and might even put laws into place, but enforcing those laws is no more likely to happen in the EU than in the U.K. If the EU ever got serious about tax avoidance then Monaco would lose a lot of it’s residents who still seem quite happy with their living arrangements there!

 

[ks.234]

QE fuels house prices by depressing interest rates to 0. With interest rates <1% over 15-25 years (fixed rates), borrowers can suddenly borrow more and longer, and can afford much higher prices. The effect can be seen all over Europe.

UK House prices still rose, and rose more sharply, when there was no QE and higher interest rates

 

[ks.234]

So (whoops!), to labour a point, was Mrs Thatcher the PM of France, Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, the US etc. Or, far more relevantly to the point that I am labouring, was BJ, Theresa May, or David Cameron?

Apologies, I am only talking about the UK. House prices in Europe seem to have risen at a similar rate to the U.K. since 2008, but I know nothing of European house price inflation v interest rates prior to that.

 

[Kirk]

Joanna Cherry chimes in (warning - not about housing):

"Has the Foreign Secretary read paragraph 55 of the judgment in the first Miller case, which was about triggering article 50, in which the Supreme Court is clear that international treaties signed by the UK Government are binding on the UK in terms of international law and that, as such, our obligations under them cannot be unilaterally rewritten. Is she aware of that?"

Truss responded: "We fully respect the rule of law, and we are very clear that this Bill is in line with international law."

MPs laughed out loud and had to be brought to order by the deputy speaker.

The Attorney General scuttled out of the chamber..."

 

[TheDecameron]

Joanna Cherry chimes in (warning - not about housing):

"Has the Foreign Secretary read paragraph 55 of the judgment in the first Miller case, which was about triggering article 50, in which the Supreme Court is clear that international treaties signed by the UK Government are binding on the UK in terms of international law and that, as such, our obligations under them cannot be unilaterally rewritten. Is she aware of that?"

Truss responded: "We fully respect the rule of law, and we are very clear that this Bill is in line with international law."

MPs laughed out loud and had to be brought to order by the deputy speaker.

The Attorney General scuttled out of the chamber..."

It shows what a group of morons occupy the govt front bench. Cherry already had them brought to heel at the High Court for their unlawful prorogation of Parliament. Surely they’re not going to offer the excuse this time that they don’t understand the very laws they themselves write?

 

[PsB]

UK House prices still rose, and rose more sharply, when there was no QE and higher interest rates

Did you adjust the prices for inflation?

 

[ks.234]

Alternatively, it could just mean that house prices increase with inflation, surely not a controversial idea. Inflation then brings higher interest rates. But that doesn't mean the higher interest rates were the cause of the increasing house prices.
You would also have to deflate those house prices using the correct inflation rates to see what the increase in house prices means in real terms.

But UK house prices have not increased with inflation. UK inflation has been around 2% since 1993, and did not go above 2% again until July 2021. In that time house prices have increased significantly.

Further, although the received (Tory) wisdom might be that inflation brings higher interest rates (which might explain why Tories see raising interest rates as the only tool to tackle any inflation) if you take a long view of the relationship between inflation and interest rates….

…the correlation is not strong.

True, the correlation looks stronger if you only look at the 50 years before the 2008 crash, but it starts to look rather weaker again after it

Interest rates are regressive. They benefit lenders who tend to be richer at the expense of borrowers who tend to be poorer. To raise interests rates to control inflation is a Tory tool that will only make inflation worse because it will make the gap between prices and peoples ability to pay greater.

If we are serious about tackling inflation we need more than the one blunt and in many cases the wrong tool to control it.

 

[Brian]

^
The record is stuck again. House prices have not always increased. Some of us owned a house during times values have fallen. Hard to understand for some, I realise.