Ukraine IV
- Thread starter -alan-
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TheDecameron
Unicorns fart glitter.
I think they have access to a great deal of intelligence and material resources we only hear a fraction of. Putina is getting angry and he’s going to have to back up his threats with action.
I hate to say it but he will go to war with NATO.
MUTTY1
Waste of bandwidth
They seem to be allowed to think for themselves. Russia seems to be follow orders; whether daft or not is immaterial. They seem to have over-organised themselves as a society as well as a war machine.
I think intelligence is spread evenly over the planet. The critical thing is how you harness it. The top down, autocratic model is being stress tested currently. Putin’s Ukraine and Xi’s zero Covid being prime examples.
-alan-
pfm Member
Do you think he's capable ? With his forces getting such a hammering in Ukraine, I can't see how on earth he'd want to try to start another fight with somebody else at this time - or perhaps ever. Maybe wishful thinking on my part, but if he still has spare resource and untapped capabilities, why direct it elsewhere instead of trying to finish the job he started in Ukraine ?
Seeker_UK
Feelin' nearly faded as my jeans
Yes. You do what the officers tell you to do. If you're ordered to cross a river, you keep going even if you're being carved up; the consequences of not following orders is far worse.
TheDecameron
Unicorns fart glitter.
He’s threatened to use non-conventional weapons. His speech on 24 Feb included-
“To anyone who would consider interfering from outside: If you do, you will face consequences greater than any you have faced in history. All the relevant decisions have been taken. I hope you hear me."
-alan-
pfm Member
I know. He's done it almost repeatedly since the early days. I get the impression most Western leaders have taken the view that you can't roll over and capitulate every time Putin makes the threat, otherwise you're going to be held at gunpoint with zero negotiating power for the rest of your days, and might as well just open your borders and hand him over the keys.
I read they are also using Maxim M1910s, a 100-year old machine gun. They seem to be very good at using their limited resources to good effect vs the Russians who don't seem to be very good at utilising their vast resources.
Some insight into their use of drones:
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/worl...ombat-russian-forces-burnett-dnt-ebof-vpx.cnn
Seeker_UK
Feelin' nearly faded as my jeans
The Maxim is like the old Vickers, as long as you keep the cooling jacket filled with water, you can feed belts of ammo into it constantly. It fires 7.62m and that's one thing Ukraine as an ex Warsaw Pact nation is not short of.
600 rounds per minute constantly out to 1km without stopping is effective suppressive fire. The fact the gun is a 100-year old design is immaterial, the target it's being used against (infantry and light armour) is the same as it was 100 years ago.
Seeker_UK
Feelin' nearly faded as my jeans
That's why it's used in defensive positions. If you're on the offensive, LMGs are what you use.
The article in question, in The Economist, also mentioned the water cooling feature as a plus. The gun was introduced in 1910. Effective to 3KM according to local soldiers. Worth a read.
sean99
pfm Member
To this point US intelligence has been pretty spot on, and I trust that the same intelligence is telling the Americans that Putin is bluffing and it’s ok to keep helping Ukraine.
I hope this is correct, but I also think that backing down now would send a very dangerous message to Putin.
Seeker_UK
Feelin' nearly faded as my jeans
We only have Putin's say-so that he's issued any orders. US assessments are that there is no evidence of preparation for use of nuclear weapons.
This is an interesting piece:
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blo...e-our-experts-answer-three-burning-questions/
Gen Wesley Clarke outlines what sort of NATO conventional response can deter Russia from taking that step.
mykel
Perpetual Hack.
Some Germans seem to have had this figured out years ago.
https://de.style.yahoo.com/style/35-jahren-gab-helmut-schmidt-085800674.html
https://de.style.yahoo.com/style/35-jahren-gab-helmut-schmidt-085800674.html
PsB
Citizen of Nowhere™
I miss Schmidt: a tough cooky, but also a good Social-Democrat with a vision to guide his pragmatic side. His analysis here has aged rather well.
-alan-
pfm Member
Just thinking further on this.
Was listening to an article about the possible US/Western response to an escalation to Nuclear level by Russia. One of the things the strategists pointed out that they deliberately have not, and will not outline the nature or level of any such response - in order to prevent an opponent accurately quantifying and calculating exactly what level of risk(s) he may face.
Couple this to Putin/The Kremlin's recent track record in terms of decisions around planning and prosecuting the Special Operation in Ukraine - and it becomes hard to believe any in power there with a degree of sanity would have any confidence in their current planning and decision making capabilities at all - much less confidence enough in them to embark on a nuclear onslaught.
Bart
pfm Member
Well yes, but he also accuses ‘The West’ of interfering constantly and at the slightest non-provocation, and anyway they are interfering greatly and he has done nothing yet. I’m not saying he wouldn’t take NATO on but it does look more like a bluff to me.
MUTTY1
Waste of bandwidth
I do think this is part of the bluffing and gamesmanship Putin is so adept at.
What disturbs me more is how the church is now part of the state. The Orthodox Church has it origins in Kiev and the Russian church have been cheerleaders in this war because they want it back. They are also very much part of this idea of Russia being a unique civilisation. And of course the church has planted itself as a central and essential part of this. This adds a bit of mystical thinking which to me is just as bad as having the nuclear ball and a bottle of vodka on the same table.
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