advertisement


Coronavirus - the new strain XII

Status
Not open for further replies.
Richard Lines said:
So how many deaths will it take before ALL people follow the rules - this remains a very significant factor - if everybody was following the rules we wouldn't be where we are now.
Click to expand...

I’m absolutely certain all people won’t follow the rules, which is why it is so essential to close public spaces beyond the absolutely essential (supermarkets etc) and even then encourage online shopping. Basically remove the ability for any anti-masker idiots etc to infect anyone beyond their own close social groups. We need to keep everyone else safe from them.

PS From what I can figure out from Sky News in the background some of the current escalation is that it c19 is back firmly rooted in the carehomes again.
 
mandryka said:
It got to 20K in Spring and wasn't overwhelmed.
Click to expand...

There is an element of state propaganda to that, it certainly got to the point people were denied ventilators etc due to lack of availability (both of hardware and staff). As such people end up being prioritised on other factors rather than simply receiving the correct care for their condition. I am not comfortable with that, and neither are the NHS staff forced into that horrific position.
 
Tony L said:
There is an element of state propaganda to that, it certainly got to the point people were denied ventilators etc due to lack of availability (both of hardware and staff). As such people end up being prioritised on other factors rather than simply receiving the correct care for their condition. I am not comfortable with that, and neither are the NHS staff forced into that horrific position.
Click to expand...

Are you sure, Tony? I just put "nhs ventilator denied covid" in google and this came up at the top

https://www.england.nhs.uk/2020/10/nhs-and-other-professional-bodies-response-to-sunday-times/
 
Some of the truly heartbreaking stories on the Humans Of Covid 19 Facebook group strongly imply it too.

PS Just watched an Italian ICU senior nurse/manager in tears on Sky News trying to articulate the hell in Italy at present. “A war zone” in her words. Italy was IIRC far better resourced than we are...
 
Tony L said:
There is an element of state propaganda to that, it certainly got to the point people were denied ventilators etc due to lack of availability (both of hardware and staff). As such people end up being prioritised on other factors rather than simply receiving the correct care for their condition. I am not comfortable with that, and neither are the NHS staff forced into that horrific position.
Click to expand...
Not sure that’s was the case, do you have evidence?

Sheffield had 130 ventilator beds, never used more than 30, treatments have developed & demand for intubation may be less.

I am trying to be positive (again).
 
Tony L said:
Some of the truly heartbreaking stories on the Humans Of Covid 19 Facebook group strongly imply it too.

PS Just watched an Italian ICU senior nurse/manager in tears on Sky News trying to articulate the hell in Italy at present. “A war zone” in her words. Italy was IIRC far better resourced than we are...
Click to expand...

By the way we have 950 receiving mechanical ventilation at the moment and it got to over 3000 in Spring.
 
Tony L said:
That is not good. How many days or weeks to NHS overload now? Really can’t be long. They’ll be forced to pick people to live/die again soon due to lack of staff and equipment, heartbreaking stuff (for the staff as well as the patients/families).
Click to expand...

Are any of the nightingales operating yet do we know?
 
The Glasgow one (Louisa Jordan) is still mothballed. Scotland hasn’t got near to its existing capacity (yet).
 
mandryka said:
And there’s another thing. Testing and tracing may be just ineffective when the disease is prevalent, no tracing system could ever keep up, not even a world class one. That’s one reason for some sort of locking down in the UK now.

But what to do when disease levels come back down? I mean, how to stop people passing it on at their leisure or at their work, and the whole thing starting again. I don’t have an answer.
Click to expand...

matt j said:
The only reason to lock down is not to prevent deaths but to prevent the NHS being over run, locking down doesn't solve anything because you eventually have to open up at some point and then you're just back to the start.

The only thing I can think is that we just have periodic shut downs so the NHS can clear out ready for the next lot after reopening. Obviously this would require massive financial commitment from the government, the Tories would have to swallow the pill and just get their hand in their pocket, unlikely though as it goes against everything they stand for.
Click to expand...

mandryka said:
I fear that you’re right though moonshot and a medical developments may change things, if not, I’m stuck. I don’t have any ideas.

Over the next few months, year, it’ll become clearer whether this really is the apocalypse.
Click to expand...

Woodface said:
The problem is deeper than that, it is the lack of compliance when people are told to isolate which is the main worry. People who need to work will just avoid a number they don’t recognise. I don’t have answers either.

I am not blaming individuals btw, it is just an observation, people will take health risks to earn money.
Click to expand...

mandryka said:
I know, I meant that. But it’s even deeper than that. It’s the impossibility of working without being in a team, and the impossibility of being in a team and keeping apart. This became clear to me in a post ages ago here, from someone who was some sort of engineer, he was working on fixing some huge piece of industrial plant, part of a team, everyone well intentioned and informed about how to stay safe. But, he said, at some point there was a problem and so they all just spontaneously got together into a huddle to solve it together . . . And I thought - impossible to stop that, it’s too natural.
Click to expand...

If we look at the countries that have had success in suppressing the virus the answers are all too obvious:
  • Lockdown with proper enforcement
  • Drive the cases down low
  • Then implement a truly fast reacting and widespread test, trace and isolate system with support for those who need to isolate and punishment for those that don't.
In the UK and to a lesser extent much of Europe we have been too lax with our lockdowns, have a slow and inaccurate test and trace regime and don't ensure people do actually isolate.

In the UK combine that with a completely disparate approach from the four nations, a massive amount of mixed messaging and dithering from the government coupled with rules that are way too complex and contradictory and you end up here!

It's really not rocket science, but you would think it was the way everyone seems to go on about it!
 
Most people I talk to don't give a shit about the rules any more. Seems to be no confidence in any country that governments know what they are doing.
 
matt j said:
Are any of the nightingales operating yet do we know?
Click to expand...

I heard someone on one one of the news programs (Sky or C4, can’t remember) that they are being readied. As I understand it the problem the last time wasn’t necessarily the hardware, but finding the trained and qualified staff to run it. You can’t just buy bed capacity and ventilators, you need the expertise too. The NHS has been understaffed for decades, hence at the last peak the attempts made to re-recruit older doctors & nurses who had retired, and were obviously in a higher risk category themselves. More so given the government’s total failure/dodgy money laundering approach to providing safe PPE.
 
Did you hear Rocco Forte on Radio 4 this morning saying that we didn’t have half a million deaths so the lockdown was pointless.

It’s the same argument I hear surrounding AIDS and the ‘millennium bug’.

The dire consequences predicted didn’t come to pass because the mitigation worked, you divit.

We still wasted the time though.


Stephen
 
Last edited:
tiggers said:
If we look at the countries that have had success in suppressing the virus the answers are all too obvious
Click to expand...

Excepting that every time someone holds up a particular country as a shining example, two weeks later they're as big of a shambles as the rest of us.

Everyone was pointing at Germany, now it turns out they're just in the same shit as the rest of us. I'm sure there will be another magic country in the news tomorrow that has managed to beat it...
 
tiggers said:
  • Then implement a truly fast reacting and widespread test, trace and isolate system with support for those who need to isolate and punishment for those that don't.
!
Click to expand...


You could do this, though it may take something resembling a police state. But I think you're missing something. Work and leisure will inevitably bring people into close contact with each other -- when they use public transport, go to school or uni, work in teams, go to the pubs and clubs, go on holiday. And so inevitably the number of cases will start to grow -- my fear is that it will inevitably grow beyond the stage where test and trace is useful. And so the whole thing will start again.
 
Last edited:
stephen bennett said:
Did you hear Rocco Forte on Radio 4 this morning saying that we didn’t have half a million deaths so the lockdown was pointless.

It’s the same argument I hear surrounding AIDS and the ‘millennium bug’.

The dire consequences predicted didn’t come to pass because they mitigation worked, you divit.

We still wasted the time gained though.


Stephen
Click to expand...
I don't buy the millennium bug argument at all.
 
tiggers said:
If we look at the countries that have had success in suppressing the virus the answers are all too obvious:
  • Lockdown with proper enforcement
  • Drive the cases down low
  • Then implement a truly fast reacting and widespread test, trace and isolate system with support for those who need to isolate and punishment for those that don't.
In the UK and to a lesser extent much of Europe we have been too lax with our lockdowns, have a slow and inaccurate test and trace regime and don't ensure people do actually isolate.

In the UK combine that with a completely disparate approach from the four nations, a massive amount of mixed messaging and dithering from the government coupled with rules that are way too complex and contradictory and you end up here!

It's really not rocket science, but you would think it was the way everyone seems to go on about it!
Click to expand...
No one in Europe has been ‘successful’ & that is the worry. Possible exceptions being the Nordics (excl Sweden?) We would be no more prepared if a tsunami hit Scarborough.

Your final Bullet point is the key one. We got the cases down very low (too late but..) & then stuffed up the T&T.

There are some cultural differences which mitigate in both directions but I can’t argue with your overall point.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.


advertisement


Back
Top