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Coronavirus - the new strain XII

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According to the BBC about 20% more, yes. However as Palmcock counts nasal swabs and throat swabs as 2 tests the numbers may not be sound.
 
Woodface said:
It looks as though it is rising quickest in the south now so they will probably try & do something else half arsed & ineffective.

Lockdown over December for maximum misery?
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Perhaps they could tie it in with Christmas, give us all and enforced 3-4 week Christmas holiday :D
 
matt j said:
Perhaps they could tie it in with Christmas, give us all and enforced 3-4 week Christmas holiday :D
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Personally not a fan of the ‘firebreak’ but October was the time to do it by extending school holiday.

I just despair, France locked down fair harder than us in the beginning but appear back at square one now.

Giving the Kids most of December off or away from school seems quite likely now.
 
Testing capacity seem pretty good now, probably as high as anywhere but it’s what happens afterwards that is key. Testing alone is pointless without follow up action.
 
Woodface said:
Testing capacity seem pretty good now, probably as high as anywhere but it’s what happens afterwards that is key. Testing alone is pointless without follow up action.
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And there’s another thing. Testing and tracing may be just ineffective when the disease is prevalent, no tracing system could ever keep up, not even a world class one. That’s one reason for some sort of locking down in the UK now.

But what to do when disease levels come back down? I mean, how to stop people passing it on at their leisure or at their work, and the whole thing starting again. I don’t have an answer.
 
mandryka said:
And there’s another thing. Testing and tracing may be just ineffective when the disease is prevalent, no tracing system could ever keep up, not even a world class one. That’s one reason for some sort of locking down in the UK now.

But what to do when disease levels come back down? I mean, how to stop people passing it on at their leisure or at their work, and the whole thing starting again. I don’t have an answer.
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The only reason to lock down is not to prevent deaths but to prevent the NHS being over run, locking down doesn't solve anything because you eventually have to open up at some point and then you're just back to the start.

The only thing I can think is that we just have periodic shut downs so the NHS can clear out ready for the next lot after reopening. Obviously this would require massive financial commitment from the government, the Tories would have to swallow the pill and just get their hand in their pocket, unlikely though as it goes against everything they stand for.
 
matt j said:
The only reason to lock down is not to prevent deaths but to prevent the NHS being over run, locking down doesn't solve anything because you eventually have to open up at some point and then you're just back to the start.

The only thing I can think is that we just have periodic shut downs so the NHS can clear out ready for the next lot after reopening. Obviously this would require massive financial commitment from the government, the Tories would have to swallow the pill and just get their hand in their pocket, unlikely though as it goes against everything they stand for.
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I fear that you’re right though moonshot and a medical developments may change things, if not, I’m stuck. I don’t have any ideas.

Over the next few months, year, it’ll become clearer whether this really is the apocalypse.
 
mandryka said:
And there’s another thing. Testing and tracing may be just ineffective when the disease is prevalent, no tracing system could ever keep up, not even a world class one. That’s one reason for some sort of locking down in the UK now.

But what to do when disease levels come back down? I mean, how to stop people passing it on at their leisure or at their work, and the whole thing starting again. I don’t have an answer.
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The problem is deeper than that, it is the lack of compliance when people are told to isolate which is the main worry. People who need to work will just avoid a number they don’t recognise. I don’t have answers either.

I am not blaming individuals btw, it is just an observation, people will take health risks to earn money.
 
Woodface said:
The problem is deeper than that, it is the lack of compliance when people are told to isolate which is the main worry. People who need to work will just avoid a number they don’t recognise. I don’t have answers either.

I am not blaming individuals btw, it is just an observation, people will take health risks to earn money.
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I know, I meant that. But it’s even deeper than that. It’s the impossibility of working without being in a team, and the impossibility of being in a team and keeping apart. This became clear to me in a post ages ago here, from someone who was some sort of engineer, he was working on fixing some huge piece of industrial plant, part of a team, everyone well intentioned and informed about how to stay safe. But, he said, at some point there was a problem and so they all just spontaneously got together into a huddle to solve it together . . . And I thought - impossible to stop that, it’s too natural.
 
matt j said:
The only reason to lock down is not to prevent deaths but to prevent the NHS being over run, locking down doesn't solve anything because you eventually have to open up at some point and then you're just back to the start.

The only thing I can think is that we just have periodic shut downs so the NHS can clear out ready for the next lot after reopening. Obviously this would require massive financial commitment from the government, the Tories would have to swallow the pill and just get their hand in their pocket, unlikely though as it goes against everything they stand for.
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Except that didn’t appear to happen last time, we ‘protected the NHS’ but at what cost? Other treatments were suspended, the massive influx to A&E never happened, nowhere close to capacity. I think we will have more problems now though as people just get sicker in winter, this is always the case.
 
mandryka said:
I know, I meant that. But it’s even deeper than that. It’s the impossibility of working without being in a team, and the impossibility of being in a team and keeping apart. This became clear to me in a post ages ago here, from someone who was some sort of engineer, he was working on fixing some huge piece of industrial plant, part of a team, everyone well intentioned and informed about how to stay safe. But, he said, at some point there was a problem and so they all just spontaneously got together into a huddle to solve it together . . . And I though - impossible to stop that, it’s too natural.
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Yes, a lot of important work still needs to be done as not everyone can work from home. We need food production, energy, water, transport etc
 
gavreid said:
23 065 cases today, 1279 hospitalisations (England 26th), and 280 deaths.
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That is not good. How many days or weeks to NHS overload now? Really can’t be long. They’ll be forced to pick people to live/die again soon due to lack of staff and equipment, heartbreaking stuff (for the staff as well as the patients/families).
 
Tony L said:
That is not good. How many days or weeks to NHS overload now? Really can’t be long. They’ll be forced to pick people to live/die again soon due to lack of staff and equipment, heartbreaking stuff (for the staff as well as the patients/families).
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Absolutely. They're already pretty overwhelmed in some areas, the nhs just can't keep on absorbing 1000 admissions daily. The press will aggregate numbers of course which will gloss over the problems in the peak areas.
 
Tony L said:
That is not good. How many days or weeks to NHS overload now? Really can’t be long. They’ll be forced to pick people to live/die again soon due to lack of staff and equipment, heartbreaking stuff (for the staff as well as the patients/families).
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So how many deaths will it take before ALL people follow the rules - this remains a very significant factor - if everybody was following the rules we wouldn't be where we are now. Speaking to my sister, who lives in Wrexham, the other night - she has a neighbour far worse than ours in terms of socialising behaviour.......

We managed to hold a kayaking training course last weekend (Advanced White Water Safety and Rescue for those interested). One trainer and six participants - it is possible to continue doing 'normal' things with some sensible precautions.......

Regards

Richard
 
christray said:
She stated at a press conference yesterday that the system had become overwhelmed and was unable to cope,hence the minor shutdown that was being introduced.
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OK but we were being told that Germany was keeping a lid on things because it had effective T&T in place - seems this was something less than the whole truth. People on here have claimed that an effective T&T system is required to prevent the spread of COVID19 - so what happened in Germany exactly??? It's important to know how and why it 'failed'.

I can fully understand people not wanting to respond to a call from T&T as it will impact their lives/ earnings etc. We need to have a mechanism in place with 'boots on the ground' to ensure we achieve the required 80% contact level we're advised is the minimum required for the system to be effective.

Regards

Richard
 
Tony L said:
That is not good. How many days or weeks to NHS overload now? Really can’t be long. They’ll be forced to pick people to live/die again soon due to lack of staff and equipment, heartbreaking stuff (for the staff as well as the patients/families).
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There are 10K Covid patients in hospital at the moment. It got to 20K in Spring and wasn't overwhelmed. I don't know for sure but it looks like there's still some legroom, it's hard to know what the capacity is.
 
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