advertisement


Winter election III

Status
Not open for further replies.
So, my constituency voted 66.4% leave in 2016, then 59.5% Labour v 30% Conservatives in 2017, does that then mean we’ll be in a marginal now? (All parties standing here, plus the Yorkshire party).
 
andrewd said:
On the Independent. Many other sites claiming the opposite, but I am an optimist. I really hope the youth vote comes into play.
Click to expand...

As always, the Wikipedia page gives a good summary of the polls: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opini...ingdom_general_election#National_poll_results

There's a frenzy of polls right now. The Indy is referring to a ComRes poll published a few days ago, but it is no longer the most recent, and seems like an outlier. The five more recent polls have the Tory lead over Labour between 8 to 15% (the latter also an outlier, I would say). Although people can still change their mind before Thursday, anything other than a Tory majority now would be a massive upset.

I know it isn't what most people here want to hear, and it certainly shouldn't stop you voting, but there it is.

Kind regards

- Garry
 
Tony L said:
I’d trust them over Labour activists every single time as at least they are based on polling/trends etc rather than wishful thinking or pining for a long past 2017 peak. I would obviously like far more evidence than is currently in play, but I’ll always take ‘some’ over ‘none’ when that is the option.
Click to expand...
If you can't trust a Labour activist who is literally telling you to trust your own judgement then you may be giving your inner Daily Mail reader a little too much slack.

The Guardian is telling people to support Lib Dems in Wimbledon. *Gina Miller's own site* is telling them to support Labour. Given that the whole problem of tactical voting is one of co-ordination, is this what you'd call a positive state of affairs?

It isn't is it? These people are f___ing this up just like they've f___ed everything else up.

Don't vote against a non-Tory incumbent. Do vote for the party that came closest to beating the Tories in 2017, unless there are particular local circumstances that suggest a different choice.

*Don't. Trust. These. Stupid. Sites.*
 
Seanm said:
If you can't trust a Labour activist who is literally telling you to trust your own judgement then you may be giving your inner Daily Mail reader a little too much slack.

The Guardian is telling people to support Lib Dems in Wimbledon. *Gina Miller's own site* is telling them to support Labour. Given that the whole problem of tactical voting is one of co-ordination, is this what you'd call a positive state of affairs?

It isn't is it? These people are f___ing this up just like they've f___ed everything else up.

Don't vote against a non-Tory incumbent. Do vote for the party that came closest to beating the Tories in 2017, unless there are particular local circumstances that suggest a different choice.

*Don't. Trust. These. Stupid. Sites.*
Click to expand...

The Guardian's Wimbledon advice, and that for the Finchers and Golders Green constituency, and for Kensington, is based on actual polling within the constituencies (500 people in each) during early to mid November: http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/polls/winbledon

While I generally agree that this is an area where caution is required, in this instance I would suggest using the more recent polling data over that from the 2017 general election.

Kind regards

- Garry
 
glancaster said:
The Guardian's Wimbledon advice, and that for the Finchers and Golders Green constituency, and for Kensington, is based on actual polling within the constituencies (500 people in each) during early to mid November: http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/polls/winbledon

While I generally agree that this is an area where caution is required, in this instance I would suggest using the more recent polling data over that from the 2017 general election.

Kind regards

- Garry
Click to expand...
That was a month ago! Labour have won back *a lot* of support since then nationally. Given that polling is following the exact same pattern as 2017 it is *unbelievably* stupid to be using month old data in this way. Which is why I think malice is also in the mix.
 
Seanm said:
That was a month ago! Labour have won back *a lot* of support since then nationally. Given that polling is following the exact same pattern as 2017 it is *unbelievably* stupid to be using month old data in this way. Which is why I think malice is also in the mix.
Click to expand...

No one can be sure. However, according to the polling data we have...

1. Wimbledon has diverged significantly from the 2017 general election result.
2. Even if Labour support since early/mid November follows the average national trend, which is a rise of a few percent, it won't be enough there: Labour still won't beat the Tories, even if Lib Dem supporters vote tactically *.
3. The Lib Dems can beat the Tories there, even so, provided that Labour supporters vote tactically *.

Unfortunately, as the tactical voting advice is so confused (and you are not really helping, Sean), I rather predict a Tory victory there.

Kind regards

- Garry

* Some may wonder why the results would be different. Simply, it is because, for some Lib Dem voters, voting tactically means voting for the Tories.
 
Here’s a thought, BJ and brexitiers are actually afraid of a second ref as the result is likely to go the other way due in no small measure to the influx of new young voters. If we buy into this notion then the polls are failing to reflect this shift in the electorate which begs the question are they ignoring this age group?
 
Seanm said:
That was a month ago! Labour have won back *a lot* ofpolling is following the exact same pattern as 2017 it is *unbelievably* stupid to be using month old data in this way.
Click to expand...
We are about to leave the EU based on three-and-a-half year old data which virtually all polls say is outdated. No politician seems to want to point out how *unbelievably* stupid that is.

If they did, I would probably vote for them.
 
notaclue said:
It would be a mandate for 'no deal' (though I reckon Johnson won't do it) and Corbyn wouldn't even deserve the bus fare home.
Click to expand...

It would be a mandate for a far-right takeover. The economy, human rights, civil liberties, legal recourse, state infrastructure and public services will be flung under the big red lie bus. The whole country ripe for Tory party backers to asset strip and sell off and p48 of the manifesto will stop the likes of Gina Miller throwing a legal spanner in the way of an ERG dictatorship.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.


advertisement


Back
Top