The Premiership of Mary Elizabeth Truss.Sept 2022 - Oct 2022

[kensalriser]

Yep, however, many tory voters will vote lib dem, not labour (I’d have to in my seat for example). They’re toast but I don’t think it will be the slam dunk for labour many think it will be.

God, it's not easy discussing psephology with you! A four point swing away from the Tories means what it says, a four point swing to Labour is not necessarily the same thing. The Lib Dems are second place challengers in numerous Tory seats, but because the majorities are larger, a four point swing towards them in those seats only gives them around 10 gains. A four point swing from Tory to Labour gives Labour 40.

 

[notaclue]

They don’t need to call a GE. Why would they? When it happens (in 2 years time) Sir K will need some pretty large swings to win. In my constituency at the last GE, conservative 58%, libdem 25%, labour 11%…

The Tory party is no longer capable of governing. They are falling apart. Sounds as if Truss cannot cope under the pressure.

"Isabel Oakeshott@IsabelOakeshott
“Depressed” @trussliz has changed her mobile number so many times that as of today, some cabinet ministers can no longer contact her, I’m told.
1:33 PM · Oct 16, 2022" https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1581624402911047681

Oakeshott is well-connected so is highly plausible that is true. Plus we have the evidence of the strange local media interviews Truss gave when she sounded very flat.

When Truss goes (looks likely within days), the government will fall. November general election.

 

[Kirk]

I am sure thus has been said before, but there should be a ban on people educated at Eton entering politics.

+ people with PPE and Classics degrees from Oxford and Cambridge.

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

Come on Sue that is a bit pathetic. A couple of bricks through the windows would be more like it.

I know, I’m a bit law abiding by nature. But in all seriousness I’m thinking ‘civil disobedience’ rather than ‘criminal damage’. At least for starters.

 

[Ponty]

The Tory party is no longer capable of governing. They are falling apart. Sounds as if Truss cannot cope under the pressure.

"Isabel Oakeshott@IsabelOakeshott
“Depressed” @trussliz has changed her mobile number so many times that as of today, some cabinet ministers can no longer contact her, I’m told.
1:33 PM · Oct 16, 2022" https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1581624402911047681

Oakeshott is well-connected so is highly plausible that is true. Plus we have the evidence of the strange local media interviews Truss gave when she sounded very flat.

When Truss goes (looks likely within days), the government will fall. November general election.

They would argue the govt has a 80 seat majority to govern for another 2 years. I hope she’s gone next week but there won’t be a GE IMHO. Politics is a funny game and who would have predicted the 80 seat majority in 2019, so anything is possible.

 

[mandryka]

The Tory party is no longer capable of governing. They are falling apart. Sounds as if Truss cannot cope under the pressure.

"Isabel Oakeshott@IsabelOakeshott
“Depressed” @trussliz has changed her mobile number so many times that as of today, some cabinet ministers can no longer contact her, I’m told.
1:33 PM · Oct 16, 2022" https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1581624402911047681

Oakeshott is well-connected so is highly plausible that is true. Plus we have the evidence of the strange local media interviews Truss gave when she sounded very flat.

When Truss goes (looks likely within days), the government will fall. November general election.

One interesting question is why they let her give the press conference. She had no need to do it, it must have been obvious that she would come across very badly. Put it like this: if I were CEO and I saw my marketing guy was planning to give an important presentation in that state, I'd stop him. My conclusion is that they wanted her to be seen to be clearly out of her depth.

Maybe (this is just my vivid imagination) it's procedurally quite hard to just replace her, but one way is for her to go on long term sick and fade away for a year, whatever fulfils the PM function in that interim time can get things back under control. In a years time, with everything looking good, she can be formally replaced and then, an election -- easy peasy.

One key unknown is how the markets will react tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised if they react badly -- it's one thing to have a safe pair of hands in No. 11, but there's a lot more to government than the treasury, and the person in No. 10 is clearly not a safe pair of hands.

 

[Tony L]

My conclusion is that they wanted her to be seen to be clearly out of her depth.

That has been the case for at least as long as she has been an MP. 100% out of her depth 100% of the time. She is the David Brent of politics.

 

[paulfromcamden]

one way is for her to go on long term sick and fade away for a year, whatever fulfils the PM function in that interim time can get things back under control.

The Deputy PM is Therese Coffey - an anti-abortion, homophobic bible basher. Can't say I'd relish her being in charge.

 

[palindrome]

Thérèse Coffey - avec Cuban, Bucks Fizz, and Stain - Prime Ministeriél Materiél.

John

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

They would argue the govt has a 80 seat majority to govern for another 2 years. I hope she’s gone next week but there won’t be a GE IMHO. Politics is a funny game and who would have predicted the 80 seat majority in 2019, so anything is possible.

They had a majority for a manifesto which bears no resemblance to the current direction of travel, though.

 

[ks.234]

They had a majority for a manifesto which bears no resemblance to the current direction of travel, though.

Yes, however you stack it up, the current government has no democratic mandate.

 

[SteveS1]

Thérèse Coffey - avec Cuban, Bucks Fizz, and Stain - Prime Ministeriél Materiél.

John

Perhaps try a more serious politician?

 

[Stemcor]

I’ve got it in my head that a Tory leader cannot be replaced once a general election has been called.

If this is correct then LT has a nuclear option. Back me or most of you will be sacked.

 

[palindrome]

@SteveS1

They're like two peas in a pod. Anyone would think Coffey was inspired to base her public persona on the obese and offensive
Sir Les Patterson.

John

 

[notaclue]

One interesting question is why they let her give the press conference. She had no need to do it, it must have been obvious that she would come across very badly. Put it like this: if I were CEO and I saw my marketing guy was planning to give an important presentation in that state, I'd stop him. My conclusion is that they wanted her to be seen to be clearly out of her depth.

Don't forget that 'they' is now Truss and her tenth-rate advisers.

 

[Jim Audiomisc]

How do I find these webpages? ( sorry if I'm being thick)

OK. FWIW I currently maintain three set of pages

My 'biog' is at

https://jcgl.orpheusweb.co.uk/history/ups_and_downs.html

That mixes a lot of details of my home life with the work I've done. Towards the end also deals with the illness of my wife and myself and the (mis)treatments by GPs, etc.
Tech side covers my time in HiFi design and other stuff on astronomy and 100GHz instrumentation, tc. Plus some pretty pictures of Concorde 001, tops of volcanoes, etc.

(The "Ups and Downs" is a pun. It seems at first to deal with my going up volcanoes, flying about, etc. But prelables the last period when health issues and mistreatment by medics came to dominate out lives. Wrote about that so others who experience it should now they aren't alone, and that you *can* survive such dreadful mistreatment by medics.)

My general Audio pages are at

https://www.audiomisc.co.uk/index.html

The UKHHSoc is at

http://ukhhsoc.torrens.org/AudioDocs.html

In addition, ye olde set of pages on various electronics related undergrad courses are at

https://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~www_pa/Scots_Guide/intro/electron.htm

That last set got frozen a decade ago but it left for anyone interested. The Uni email address no longer reaches me.

Hope some is of interest.

 

[Jim Audiomisc]

One interesting question is why they let her give the press conference. She had no need to do it, it must have been obvious that she would come across very badly. .

I have the impression that she is simply too dim to realise how dim she is! And as 'leader' can simply ignore advice.. or at least, could. She has seemed to assume that just asserting her 'growth mantra' was enough to 'make it so'. Then baffled when that doesn't happen and people ask questions about her faith in tooth fairies.

 

[Stemcor]

I have the impression that she is simply too dim to realise how dim she is!

I actually laughed when I read that. Must be tough for her to look in the mirror.

 

[TheDecameron]

Thérèse Coffey - avec Cuban, Bucks Fizz, and Stain - Prime Ministeriél Materiél.

John

A heart beat away from the premiership…..or the coronary care unit.

 

[Seanm]

This is good, on the recent bailout:

https://craigberry.substack.com/p/it-is-time-to-admit-that-closing

BoE statements as well as reporting identified the problem as defined benefit pensions, but it looks like the pension funds were never seriously at risk and were not the real beneficiaries of the bailout: that would be the banks.

I found it very clear on LDIs, defined benefit pensions and the state of pensions in general. Also what might be done, long term.

Way back when, we needed to support the development of multi-employer provision, like USS (multi-employer schemes are now the norm in defined contribution), building larger funds with longer-term investment horizons, shifting the balance of power between worker-controlled funds and the asset management industry back in favour of the former. Starting this from where we are now is not ideal, but still a better scenario than the one we are currently facing.

The state could support a new generation of defined benefit schemes by underpinning guaranteed outcomes. As noted above, the state already offers such guarantees via the Pension Protection Fund, as well as investing many billions in defined benefit schemes via Pensions Tax Relief. If the state is going to be called upon to support private provision anyway, it might as well operate transparently, and used to engineer a more sustainable private sector business model.

And the public guarantee could of course be conditional, with funds expected to invest in, say, the decarbonisation of UK industries and their supply chains. Indeed, once permanence is established, pension funds may be better placed than the state to undertake the gigantic investments now required (i.e. without inducing higher borrowing costs), assuming the state is prepared to mark out the necessary path via public financing.