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Ukraine V

Chefren said:
Yes but what would they do? If they just make a lot of noise, Putin would seem weak.
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Any actual attack would make their position even worse than it is already. But being able to prove to a skeptical segment of the European population that this was really always about NATO/the 'West' trying to attack Russia to snatch chunks of its sacred territory would be propaganda gold for the Kremlin. It would support its permanent efforts to divide European opinion and reduce support for Ukraine.
 
PsB said:
Russia touching that new Baltic pipeline would be an act of war against at least 3 NATO countries (Norway, Denmark, Poland). Not very likely.

(Edited for clarity)
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Depends on 'deniability' judgements on their part. And Putin's judgements have occasionally been, erm, a tad optimistic, lately.
 
Mullardman said:
Meanwhile Putrid is pressing on with his formal annexation of parts of Ukraine. This can be seen as arrogance, or as an attempt to intimidate possible Western support for Ukraine. But could it not also be seen as an attempt to end the war with what he has gained? I O W, an exit strategy?
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Going by rhetoric there is no way Ukraine would accept such a strategy, so no off-ramp here unless Ukraine’s backers throw in the towel. Hopeless situation!
 
^ The only route for Turkmenistan gas safe from Russia is through Iran. And Iran has a lot of gas as well. Isn't it time for the USA to establish normal-ish relations with Iran ?
 
Jim Audiomisc said:
Depends on 'deniability' judgements on their part. And Putin's judgements have occasionally been, erm, a tad optimistic, lately.
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Also his capacity to lie and switch lies as soon as one is revealed, is legendary :
We won’t invade Ukraine.
Zelensky is a Nazi
We didn’t use novichok and Polonium-210 in Britain, they did it to make us look bad
Ukraine is covered in US biological weapons labs, ready to attack us
That’s not a photoshop of a Ukrainian fighter shooting down a Malaysian airliner, it’s real
Everyone hates us
 
TheDecameron said:
Also his capacity to lie and switch lies as soon as one is revealed, is legendary :
We won’t invade Ukraine.
Zelensky is a Nazi
We didn’t use novichok and Polonium-210 in Britain, they did it to make us look bad
Ukraine is covered in US biological weapons labs, ready to attack us
That’s not a photoshop of a Ukrainian fighter shooting down a Malaysian airliner, it’s real
Everyone hates us
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Well, one out of seven isn’t so bad.
 
For anyone with New York Times access, they have authentic phone calls from Russian soldiers, complaining bitterly about the war and Putin, saying that they thought they were going on exercises - and, more chillingly, owning up to war crimes ("What do we do with him?" "Shoot him, otherwise we'll have to feed him, and we've hardly enough for ourselves").
 
tones said:
For anyone with New York Times access, they have authentic phone calls from Russian soldiers, complaining bitterly about the war and Putin, saying that they thought they were going on exercises - and, more chillingly, owning up to war crimes ("What do we do with him?" "Shoot him, otherwise we'll have to feed him, and we've hardly enough for ourselves").
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You don’t need a subscription for this article. Click here:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...ope/russian-soldiers-phone-calls-ukraine.html
 
palindrome said:
Interesting, @DimitryZ. Would it be reasonable to assume Ukraine could have been rushing through a secret nuclear weapons program of their own since, or perhaps before, the Russian invasion?

John
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Unlikely.

Centrifuge farms or plutonium breeder reactors are really hard to hide.

The right way they should do it is to announce their exit from NPT and setting up required infrastructure.

That would invite heavy retaliation from Russia.

On the other hand, it would be relatively easy for them to put together a nasty dirty bomb. And if Russians nuke Ukrainian territory, who can blame them?
 
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tones said:
For anyone with New York Times access, they have authentic phone calls from Russian soldiers, complaining bitterly about the war and Putin, saying that they thought they were going on exercises - and, more chillingly, owning up to war crimes ("What do we do with him?" "Shoot him, otherwise we'll have to feed him, and we've hardly enough for ourselves").
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Here’s opinion polling in RU up to August.

https://www.levada.ru/en/2022/09/14/conflict-with-ukraine-august-2022/
(press the RU/ EN button top right to get the English language version).


There’s considerable mismatch between public opinion/perception among ordinary Russians and the images we are seeing of the battlefield. This of course predates the Ukrainian rout of the Russian army in large areas and subsequent casualties plus you have to factor in the way information is managed by the government as well as the prohibition of ‘negative opinions’ about the army or the ‘special military operation’.

Nonetheless support for action in Ukraine is very high in Russia:
 
tones said:
For anyone with New York Times access, they have authentic phone calls from Russian soldiers, complaining bitterly about the war and Putin, saying that they thought they were going on exercises - and, more chillingly, owning up to war crimes ("What do we do with him?" "Shoot him, otherwise we'll have to feed him, and we've hardly enough for ourselves").
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I wonder how Putin thinks he will be able to deal with what those Russian troops (that survive) will tell their friends and families when they get home and are sufficiently recovered to speak honestly. What civilians get fed on TV won't counter that. And the entire army will know the reality.

The parable of the monkey and the cookie jar.
 
DimitryZ said:
a nasty dirty bomb.
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To the best of my knowledge (and I am happy to be contradicted), no such thing exists. A bomb that throws out bits of radioactive material is really no problem - one simply keeps one's distance from the bits. The really dirty bomb is an actual atomic weapon, which spreads radioactive particles and radiation far and wide.
 
Russia announced that Vladimir Putin will sign a decree incorporating occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson into the Russian Federation later today. It has complete control of only two of them: L and K but will treat military action against all of them as an attack on Russia, even those areas presently controlled by Ukrainian forces.

This is clearly going to escalate. Personally I can’t see how it will not become a NATO- Russian conflict.
 
tones said:
To the best of my knowledge (and I am happy to be contradicted), no such thing exists. A bomb that throws out bits of radioactive material is really no problem - one simply keeps one's distance from the bits. The really dirty bomb is an actual atomic weapon, which spreads radioactive particles and radiation far and wide.
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There was an analysis of the effect of releasing Plutonium into the air from a tall building, no explosion or drama.

If you followed US safety limits 10kg could make a vast area uninhabitable.

I think it was in Scientific American many years ago.
 
dweezil said:
There was an analysis of the effect of releasing Plutonium into the air from a tall building, no explosion or drama.

If you followed US safety limits 10kg could make a vast area uninhabitable.

I think it was in Scientific American many years ago.
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A dirty bomb is a terror weapon, not a weapon of war.
 
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