Coronavirus - the new strain XVIII

[Seeker_UK]

You can see from the graph, hosptalisations are doubling over about 20 days (the yellow line). Deaths will, therefore, not rise faster than this (fingers crossed) and with another 10 day or so lag, that's maybe double today's average in four weeks time. It will be very difficult to pull that out of the natural variation.

AIUI the only reason we have had these restrictions placed on us is to save lives and to prevent an unsustainable load on hospitals (to save lives).

At the moment, the number of deaths remains low and the only concern is in the increase in hospitalisations. We have a number but we don't know (I think) what the nature of those hospitalisations are and what they mean in terms of strain on the NHS; ISTM, the numbers who go in and end up in an MV bed or ICU remains low (although I have only seen data up to 03 Jun 21) so hospitalisation could go higher without 'problem' *if* the only intervention required was to be in a normal ward on oxygen and / or nebuliser.

 

[gavreid]

AIUI the only reason we have had these restrictions placed on us is to save lives and to prevent an unsustainable load on hospitals (to save lives).

Yes it's a mistaken strategy. We're creating the perfect environment for new variants. They also risk exposing weaknesses in the vaccine or waning among the most vulnerable, which are both made more serious by high background numbers.

 

[Seeker_UK]

Yes it's a mistaken strategy. We're creating the perfect environment for new variants. They also risk exposing weaknesses in the vaccine or waning among the most vulnerable, which are both made more serious by high background numbers.

So, you think that full restrictions need to remain in place until the whole UK population is vaccinated?

 

[gavreid]

So, you think that full restrictions need to remain in place until the whole UK population is vaccinated?

I said the other day - I think we need to pull back to step 2, put our efforts into protecting schools and getting on top of this surge in infections until the end of term. Then see about reintroducing some of step 3 if the numbers allow. I doubt I'd get to stage 4 at all unless things really go well, we just can't keep winning all the gambles.

 

[gavreid]

I don't think it's funny to laugh at the sick and disabled but obviously some here do. Talk about anti-woke. Nothing would make me happier than to be able to go out to work but instead I'm tied to my computer at home for something to do. Not been on holiday since 2014, unable to travel out of my locality. Missing my kids grow up. Hahahahahahahahaha. Must be great being that ignorant and never having to think about anything.

 

[Frizzy]

Anyone notice GB news got two long sycophantic questions in.

 

[gavreid]

The modellers are still predicting a large 3rd wave despite the delay...

"A four-week delay, modellers found, could reduce peak daily hospital admissions by a third to a half in the coming wave. Open up as planned and they could exceed 2,500 a day, but the pause would keep it nearer to a thousand. In January, daily hospital admissions peaked at more than 4,000."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-lockdown-lifting-is-a-four-week-delay-enough

 

[tiggers]

I don't think it's funny to laugh at the sick and disabled but obviously some here do. Talk about anti-woke. Nothing would make me happier than to be able to go out to work but instead I'm tied to my computer at home for something to do. Not been on holiday since 2014, unable to travel out of my locality. Missing my kids grow up. Hahahahahahahahaha. Must be great being that ignorant and never having to think about anything.

Take no notice Gav, as I have said before this thread has become my go to place for virus info and I (and many other posters) are very grateful to you.

 

[Seanm]

No reduction in effectiveness of vaccines against hospitalisation, PHE data shows. Good news. Wonder how it will affect the modelling.

https://twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1404499148041330700?s=20

 

[Andrew C!]

@gavreid evening gav. My stance was always that on the review date, they should heed the numbers and advice. True, they could have acted before today and said 'no chance', but that's not what this government does.

The other interesting thought is that for every decision they could send out speedily, or delay, there will be some area of business positively or adversely affected.

Finally, having been doing two LFTs a week and my 1st of two PCR tests following Saturdays excursion to the cricket, I'm starkly remind of the amount of plastic waste created. Just when we were starting to think, possibly, about taking climate change and pollution seriously, Covid comes along.

 

[gavreid]

Finally, having been doing two LFTs a week and my 1st of two PCR tests following Saturdays excursion to the cricket, I'm starkly remind of the amount of plastic waste created. Just when we were starting to think, possibly, about taking climate change and pollution seriously, Covid comes along.

That's very true - masks too.

 

[s1h1]

Finally, having been doing two LFTs a week and my 1st of two PCR tests following Saturdays excursion to the cricket, I'm starkly remind of the amount of plastic waste created. Just when we were starting to think, possibly, about taking climate change and pollution seriously, Covid comes along.

You should see the amount of waste from a Covid test site.

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

I don't think it's funny to laugh at the sick and disabled but obviously some here do. Talk about anti-woke. Nothing would make me happier than to be able to go out to work but instead I'm tied to my computer at home for something to do. Not been on holiday since 2014, unable to travel out of my locality. Missing my kids grow up. Hahahahahahahahaha. Must be great being that ignorant and never having to think about anything.

Has a post been deleted?

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

I think it's only really double doses that are going to count much at this point. There is also the concern raised in the current risk assessment that AZ may be compromised to some degree even after 2 doses. We can't affort to run a policy based solely on vaccination we absolutely must be keeping infections to a minimum too.

The government’s escape plan seems to be entirely dependent on vaccination, though.

 

[mandryka]

Just browsing through the reports in The Guardian these three things struck me as new

1. Hancock said to MPs

Our aim is two-thirds of all adults will have had both doses by 19 July

Now this figure of two thirds isn’t chosen at random, because one of the things you read is that with alpha, 60% immunity = herd immunity. But delta is more contagious, I don’t know if that makes a difference.

2. Vallence said in the presser

Getting young people vaccinated is important because that will reduce infections.

I didn’t know that, I’ve never heard that there was evidence that they reduce infections of delta.



3. Hancock said to MPs

it’s the government’s “goal” that the road map is irreversible. “It’s also important to try to take steps when we can have a good degree of confidence in that route.”

I have no idea why they use the language of irreversibility, it’s obviously stupid and the backtracking has, thankfully, begun.

 

[TheDecameron]

The 04:00hr leak to the media that Freedom Day was cancelled and the non-appearance of Johnson in the Commons seems to have upset the Speaker. Johnson doesn’t like being the bearer of bad news to the public or his CRG backbenchers but he was busy getting an insignificant trade deal withAustralia.

 

[gavreid]

The government’s escape plan seems to be entirely dependent on vaccination, though.

You've had your vaccines, now your on your own. Again Johnson tied himsef to step 4 in four weeks time, come what may...

There were 5 models presented to Sage, all showed a significant surge in hospitalisations. These are the predictions of the Warwick model with a range of dates for step 4 (daily hospital admissions) and uncertainties. The dashed lines were the peaks in the first two waves. I don't think any of these meet the test of not overwhelming the nhs - planned activity will be cancelled and waiting lists will grow further - and that's only the impact of step 3!

 

[Andrew C!]

You've had your vaccines, now your on your own. Again Johnson tied himsef to step 4 in four weeks time, come what may...

Indeed. I'm not sure what other long term choices any government would have in the current situation.

We aren't big enough to buy our way out of this one, and will again be passing debts onto our great grand children(I don't have kids, btw).

The public inquiry into this will be very tasty indeed.

 

[Seanm]

Indeed. I'm not sure what other long term choices any government would have in the current situation.

We aren't big enough to buy our way out of this one, and will again be passing debts onto our great grand children(I don't have kids, btw).

The public inquiry into this will be very tasty indeed.

Short term, medium term and long term, the government could provide people with the material support to actually isolate: TTI has never worked properly because they won’t do this, but the second best time to start doing something sensible is now, as the saying goes. Also increase statutory sick pay, improve messaging, make sure people know and (employers) do something about ventilation. These are all minimally disruptive, non-repressive things government can do that will improve immediate outcomes as well as longer term public health resilience, and people’s lives more generally.

Don’t buy into this debt stuff. Faster growth is a better way of dealing with debt than austerity and state debt anyway has massive benefits. Our great grandchildren, picking their way through ruined infrastructure on their way to the turnip farm, locking down for 3 months a year, dying of easily cured diseases etc. are not going to thank us for not increasing state debt, on the mistaken assumption that they would have to pay it back.

 

[gavreid]

Gove is out doing the rounds stating that 19th July is ironed on while one of the Sage scientists is warning of considerable uncertainty ahead:

"Professor Graham Medley, from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) advising the government, warns that it is still possible that the nation could return to seeing hundreds of deaths a day.

"Although the numbers of deaths are low at the moment, everyone expects that they will rise. The question is really as to what level they will rise," he tells BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

"At the moment there is a lot of uncertainty in what's going to happen over the next couple of months." "

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57480071?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=60c85a0c0c64e002e8105815&Coming months uncertain - scientist on Sage&2021-06-15T07:43:18.779Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:e63f811f-6ec9-4fe5-86cb-3af7133056fc&pinned_post_asset_id=60c85a0c0c64e002e8105815&pinned_post_type=share