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Brexit: give me a positive effect... IX

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SteveS1 said:
Remain should have put far more effort into breaking the Leave constructed link between immigration and poorer public services. They massively underestimated how easy the sell would be that UK problems are the fault of others. It's something too many people are too keen to embrace. The Leave campaign didn't choose to run a xenophobic campaign because it doesn't resonate with their target audience. Cameron and others completely underestimated the numbers that would be happy to be told that if we got rid of freedom of movement, everything would be better. You can see how much Johnson has learned from that, his casual racism has become much more emboldened and he has recognised how enthusiasitic previous immigrants are to have fewer joining them.
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Since Cameron headed up the Remain campaign, we would have to ask him why he didn't counter the obvious arguments.

It's not like he wasn't warned. In the previous GE, UKIP pulled something like 4m votes...and they weren't exactly from the leafy shires or Islington. Their votes came from regions which subsequently voted Brexit.

I can't see any reason beyond ultra complacency. Probably emboldened by his success on Scottish independence.

Regions outside London with >10% ethnic minority population also showed strongly in the Brexit Leave results. Simple racism doesn't explain this. Maybe it's protectionism at play, or fear of change.
 
Seeker_UK said:
Leave won it because they promised change not the status quo and remain sat with its thumb up its collective hoop because they thought they had it in the bag and didn't think it needed so much effort to win.
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Where is the evidence of this "status quo" though?

If anything, the pace of change has only increased in recent decades.

It doesn't mean that everyone was happy with the direction of change though.
 
kabayiri said:
Since Cameron headed up the Remain campaign, we would have to ask him why he didn't counter the obvious arguments.

It's not like he wasn't warned. In the previous GE, UKIP pulled something like 4m votes...and they weren't exactly from the leafy shires or Islington. Their votes came from regions which subsequently voted Brexit.

I can't see any reason beyond ultra complacency. Probably emboldened by his success on Scottish independence.

Regions outside London with >10% ethnic minority population also showed strongly in the Brexit Leave results. Simple racism doesn't explain this. Maybe it's protectionism at play, or fear of change.
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With Cameron I don't think it went any deeper than him thinking sufficient numbers of people were better than that. The sort of feeling you get when looking at the screaming front pages of the Mail and the Express for example. Yes you know what they are about, who owns them and what their motivations are, but nothing prepares you for how successful the years of drip, drip, drip anti-EU and anti-immigration poison has been. I don't think Cameron or the people round him were that different to many others in that respect. Successive UK governments have been happy to blame the EU for unpopular policy, they undestimated the long term impact of allowing that to go on unchecked.

On your last point, "pull up the ladder after me" is very common.
 
SteveS1 said:
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On your last point, "pull up the ladder after me" is very common.
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It's a basic instinct to keep what they have. Finance bods based in London want to secure what they have when it comes to their source of income. See if they are happy to lose it to Frankfurt or somewhere else in the EU. I reckon not.

Londoners used to moan about Northerners coming down to take their jobs back in the 80s/90s. That's also protectionism.
 
Sue Pertwee-Tyr said:
Hindsight, I know, but I do wonder whether, had somebody made the case as you and Seanm have done, for not having a second ref, whether enough people could have been persuaded out of that cul-de-sac and into make-the-best-of-it boulevard? I would like to think I could have been, but I really don't know.

Yet another failure to chalk up to 'politics', I guess.
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Judging by the "would you compromise?" thread a while ago, maybe not enough, although PFM is not necessarily representative. I remember you were one of the few reminers on that thread willing to contemplate soft Brexit but IIRC you and a few others were outnumbered by around 2:1.

I do think the refusal of Lib-Dems and Change UK to vote for a customs union was a historic error. Perhaps that was the point at which a hard Brexit became inevitable?
 
kabayiri said:
It's a basic instinct to keep what they have. Finance bods based in London want to secure what they have when it comes to their source of income. See if they are happy to lose it to Frankfurt or somewhere else in the EU. I reckon not.

Londoners used to moan about Northerners coming down to take their jobs back in the 80s/90s. That's also protectionism.
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Absolutely, but let's not dress it up as something more high minded is all I'm saying.
 
SteveS1 said:
he has recognised how enthusiastic previous immigrants in red wall areas are to have fewer joining them.
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In the East End of London especially, the community is newcomers of a different origin each generation and it has been like that since the Huguenot immigration at least.
Each wave then feels hostile to the next - rinse and repeat
 
droodzilla said:
I do think the refusal of Lib-Dems and Change UK to vote for a customs union was a historic error. Perhaps that was the point at which a hard Brexit became inevitable?
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I agree although I'm not sure how practical CU without SM was and I sure can't be arsed to refresh my memory. :)
 
davidsrsb said:
In the East End of London especially, the community is newcomers of a different origin each generation and it has been like that since the Huguenot immigration at least.
Each wave then feels hostile to the next - rinse and repeat
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I agree. If you see an opportunity to harness that in favour of a vote - it's very powerful. Any aspects of the vote beyond this concern are not taken on board.
 
Seeker_UK said:
Status quo, as in "stay in the EU" vs "leave and f**k the whole country up" .
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There is no status quo, just different forms of change.

Look at the EU of today, and compare it with the EU as it was just 2 decades ago. It's changed significantly.
So why should we imagine it won't look different in 2 decades time?

It sounds equally disingenuous as the New World Utopia pumped out by the Hard Leave campaigners.
 
kabayiri said:
There is no status quo, just different forms of change.

Look at the EU of today, and compare it with the EU as it was just 2 decades ago. It's changed significantly.
So why should we imagine it won't look different in 2 decades time?

It sounds equally disingenuous as the New World Utopia pumped out by the Hard Leave campaigners.
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January 1st 2021. Remain won. No change.
January 1st 2021. Leave won. Shitshow.

That's status quo.

Stephen
 
kabayiri said:
There is no status quo, just different forms of change.

Look at the EU of today, and compare it with the EU as it was just 2 decades ago. It's changed significantly.
So why should we imagine it won't look different in 2 decades time?

It sounds equally disingenuous as the New World Utopia pumped out by the Hard Leave campaigners.
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In order to make this argument stand up, you’d have to show that people who dismissed the Remain concerns as ‘project fear’ were nevertheless sufficiently analytical that they looked at the direction of travel of the EU and extrapolated it, not liking what they saw.
 
I think we will be forced to look for labour outside of the EU. I
wacko said:
^^ Many Brexiteers may have thought they were voting to end immigration. In fact they have voted to replace temporary immigration with permanent immigration.
It will take years for them to realise it.
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I wasn't really bothered about what motivated other Brexiters. After all, who am I to judge their own personal circumstance?
I favour migration based on what skills we need at the time. I think we will find no shortage of good quality people from the displaced Hong Kong citizens, if they are allowed to leave.
 
kabayiri said:
I think we will be forced to look for labour outside of the EU. I


I wasn't really bothered about what motivated other Brexiters. After all, who am I to judge their own personal circumstance?
I favour migration based on what skills we need at the time. I think we will find no shortage of good quality people from the displaced Hong Kong citizens, if they are allowed to leave.
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How much of a welcome do you anticipate they will be given?
 
Sue Pertwee-Tyr said:
Well, I'm not the one who said "Not long now until the poster becomes fact" so I'm not guessing, but I am interested in yours. But actually, I'm less interested in it now as I understand the piece you alluded to says something different to what you tried to imply, so run along and play with somebody else.
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As you can see from the Times article Erdogan is on the first step by offering talks with Greece. Not long in EU terms is 10 to 15 years. That is of course assuming the handful of countries who prop up the EU continue to see it as value for money.
 
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