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Brexit: give me a positive effect... IX

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Colin Barron said:
I see Erdogan wants to turn a new page with Europe. Not long now until the poster becomes fact.
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When you say 'not long now' are you talking in geological terms? Acknowledging that you were right (well, kinda) about there being a deal by the end of the year (depends, really, what you think constitutes a 'deal'), what sort of timescale do you have for Turkey joining the union? Only the smart money usually puts it at c20 years, probably longer still if Erdogan or his ilk is in charge.

Oh, and that poster was the most racist/xenophobic piece of shit to have disgraced the Leave campaign. If you're defending it, then I'm done indulging you.
 
SteveS1 said:
You usual relationship with facts - or more xenophobic b/s from your usual favoured sources as it's known.
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The junk can more comfortably hang out now. It’s like having Gerard Batten on the forum.

look into the eyes, not around the eyes, look into the eyes,
V8MDD2C.jpg
 
Sue Pertwee-Tyr said:
When you say 'not long now' are you talking in geological terms? Acknowledging that you were right (well, kinda) about there being a deal by the end of the year (depends, really, what you think constitutes a 'deal'), what sort of timescale do you have for Turkey joining the union? Only the smart money usually puts it at c20 years, probably longer still if Erdogan or his ilk is in charge.

Oh, and that poster was the most racist/xenophobic piece of shit to have disgraced the Leave campaign. If you're defending it, then I'm done indulging you.
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They weren’t Turks in the poster either.

Racist lies are effective.

Stephen
 
I'm still waiting for specific detail on this Russian interference.

I do know that there was a lot of experimentation with ways to influence social media, but it didn't exactly come from one source.

An example. A lad I know developed software to generate bulk Twitter followers. He got an offer to buy out his small business from a Canadian VC outfit.

Why would there be such interest in generating fake followers? Well...the interest came from big American corporates, and the Canadian buyer spotted this.

This was around the time of referendum, a bit earlier perhaps. So why wouldn't the Russians buy into this? It sounds ideal.
 
Sue Pertwee-Tyr said:
Remain could have won the Brexit vote if they'd promised unicorns, fairy castles and sunlit uplands with puppies and kittens for all. That's basically how Leave won it. And they won it because the 'someones' you refer to wanted to believe it, no questions asked. What's complicated about that, either?
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Leave won it because they promised change not the status quo and remain sat with its thumb up its collective hoop because they thought they had it in the bag and didn't think it needed so much effort to win.
 
Seeker_UK said:
Leave won it because they promised change not the status quo and remain sat with its thumb up its collective hoop because they thought they had it in the bag and didn't think it needed so much effort to win.
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I won't defend the ineffectual Remain campaign because I agree with you, but they were effectively offering the status quo, so if the other side offers unicorns, and all you have is 'more of the same' then if your audience wants unicorns, they're going to desert you.
 
Seeker_UK said:
Leave won it because they promised change not the status quo and remain sat with its thumb up its collective hoop because they thought they had it in the bag and didn't think it needed so much effort to win.
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To be fair, it's a bigger ask to prove negatives while you have a record to defend. Whereas your opposition has nothing to defend by way of record but plenty of baseless optimism and promises that cannot be tested. Also, as you can see in recent posts if the real concern, however it's dressed up, is really not being discussed by many - that's also difficult to deal with.

The style of campaigning for plebiscite lends itself to exaggeration and lies because there s no direct on-going accountability and you only have to get one concept across a line - the worst that can happen is that the government of the day pays the price. Most of those who campaigned are not accountable to anyone.
 
Sue Pertwee-Tyr said:
When you say 'not long now' are you talking in geological terms? Acknowledging that you were right (well, kinda) about there being a deal by the end of the year (depends, really, what you think constitutes a 'deal'), what sort of timescale do you have for Turkey joining the union? Only the smart money usually puts it at c20 years, probably longer still if Erdogan or his ilk is in charge.

Oh, and that poster was the most racist/xenophobic piece of shit to have disgraced the Leave campaign. If you're defending it, then I'm done indulging you.
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Your guess at Turkey's entry to the EU is as good as mine, but if he plays his cards right it will not be 20 years.
 
TheDecameron said:
The parallel here is that this thread asking for benefits from Brexit ended up prompting denialism and blame from Brexit voters for the manifest failures of their Brexit. You appear to have exported the same thing from the Labour threads: everyone else is to blame for the abject political failure of the party apart from yourselves. Was the Starmer thread not generating enough audience?
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Seriously though, the only one talking about Labour is you: if I want to shake my fist at Labour I go on the Starmer thread. If I want to tease Remainers about their Putin fixation I come here. Or the Trump thread. Or...

Obviously this thread isn’t about the benefits of Brexit, it’s about rubbing the noses of our 2 or 3 leavers in the mess they made. It’s a trolling thread! I’m just mixing it up a bit.
 
Seanm said:
Seriously though, the only one talking about Labour is you: if I want to shake my fist at Labour I go on the Starmer thread. If I want to tease Remainers about their Putin fixation I come here. Or the Trump thread. Or...

Obviously this thread isn’t about the benefits of Brexit, it’s about rubbing the noses of our 2 or 3 leavers in the mess they made. It’s a trolling thread! I’m just mixing it up a bit.
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Youll qualify for a UKIP like
 
SteveS1 said:
To be fair, it's a bigger ask to prove negatives while you have a record to defend. Whereas your opposition has nothing to defend by way of record but plenty of baseless optimism and promises that cannot be tested. Also, as you can see in recent posts if the real concern, however it's dressed up, is really not being discussed by many - that's also difficult to deal with.
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We've had a similar discussion before and I don't disagree with any of that (^) where we will probably never agree is over the 'so what?' which is where I think Remain could have put the work in and did more to campaig. Exactly what, I don't know but I don't have the background in politics, sociology, communications theory, culture, psychology and media to begin to work it out.
 
Colin Barron said:
Your guess at Turkey's entry to the EU is as good as mine, but if he plays his cards right it will not be 20 years.
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Well, I'm not the one who said "Not long now until the poster becomes fact" so I'm not guessing, but I am interested in yours. But actually, I'm less interested in it now as I understand the piece you alluded to says something different to what you tried to imply, so run along and play with somebody else.
 
Seeker_UK said:
We've had a similar discussion before and I don't disagree with any of that (^) where we will probably never agree is over the 'so what?' which is where I think Remain could have put the work in and did more to campaig. Exactly what, I don't know but I don't have the background in politics, sociology, communications theory, culture, psychology and media to begin to work it out.
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Remain should have put far more effort into breaking the Leave constructed link between immigration and poorer public services. They massively underestimated how easy the sell would be that UK problems are the fault of others. It's something too many people are too keen to embrace. The Leave campaign didn't choose to run a xenophobic campaign because it doesn't resonate with their target audience. Cameron and others completely underestimated the numbers that would be happy to be told that if we got rid of freedom of movement, everything would be better. You can see how much Johnson has learned from that, his casual racism has become much more emboldened and he has recognised how enthusiastic previous immigrants in red wall areas are to have fewer joining them.

His poster girl for that is Ms Patel of course. What better way to make xenophobic and racist policy than to involve previous generation immigrants? The irony that Ms Patel's parents would meet far more obstacles to the freedoms they enjoy had this government been involved - is for wimps.
 
Seanm said:
It was clear to those in close contact with non-urban working class constituencies, including (God help us) some of the worst dunderheads in the PLP. It was much less clear to the Labour membership, which skews urban and middle class. It really was a perspectival trick. Very clear to many of my friends, for instance, who were tearing their hair out. I was like, "Nah! People are starting to see through Johnson!" :rolleyes: Pure wishful thinking. It was also possible to arrive at the right conclusion from first principles, namely: don't fck with referendums. That's close to being a natural law. I sort of knew this but persuaded myself it could be suspended. Again, wilful self-delusion.

None of has to beat ourselves up about any of this, but there's definitely a learning opportunity here.
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I was going to reply to @Sue Pertwee-Tyr but this makes the two essential points.

On the first point, plenty of people had adequate foresight including many members of the shadow cabinet who begged Corbyn not to support a second referendum. Sadly, a man by the name of Keir Starmer won that argument, but was never seen again. Likewise, principled arguments for a soft Brexit were drowned out in a liberal media intent on amplifying the voices of the People's Vote campaign, and cynical chancers like Change UK.

On the second point, it seems like madness now that anyone thought the referendum result could (or should) be reversed. It's vital to grasp that not everyone who voted to "Get Brexit Done" (or didn't vote against it - many lifelong Labour voters stayed at home) was a hardcore Brexiter. A lot of voters simply wanted to end the political stasis that seemed to have little connection with their lives, or believed, on principle, that the referendum result should be implemented. Cummings saw this clearly and exploited it ruthlessly.

I agree that there's no point beating ourselves up about this but if we don't learn from this experience, we're doomed to repeat it. The acid-test for me is whether people are as daft as this guy: https://twitter.com/acgrayling/status/1348963789912338434.

PS: Yeah, banging on about Putin is dumb. The heist was committed in broad daylight by UK actors.
 
Hindsight, I know, but I do wonder whether, had somebody made the case as you and Seanm have done, for not having a second ref, whether enough people could have been persuaded out of that cul-de-sac and into make-the-best-of-it boulevard? I would like to think I could have been, but I really don't know.

Yet another failure to chalk up to 'politics', I guess.
 
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