Coronavirus - the new strain XII
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stephen bennett
Mr Enigma
Johnson will just cross out ‘lockdown’ and write ‘Tier 4’ in crayon.
Apparently Wymondham is a hotspot and I’m just in Sarf Norfolk. Tier 3 for me I suspect.
I agree. People are all wearing masks here.
Stephen
This antibody cocktail developed by AstraZeneca could be very important for some people as it promises immediate action. It is separate from the Oxford vaccine, perhaps similar to the Regeneron cocktail Trump got. Unfortunately it is expensive. Phase 3 trial underway. UK in line for 1 million doses.
mandryka
pfm Member
Has this impact of half term that you’re proposing worn off now?
As you know I’ve heard Gove say quite clearly that yes, schools open have an impact on community transmission, but it’s one they are willing to take because they don’t want the consequences of closing them. The question is not really, do schools being open increase the prevalence of the disease - yes, is the answer to that one. It’s which year groups, by how much, and is it worth taking the hit.
TheDecameron
Unicorns fart glitter.
It’s a challenging treatment modality. The basic antimicrobial concept is great but who do you give it to and when because you don’t know who's going to get severe disease. My understanding is that you need to give it early when the patient has circulating virus not when they get the secondary inflammatory disease at which point there’s often no virus left to target. If it was a simple, inexpensive pill you could use it widely but it’s an expensive injectable that requires other resources. It’s likely to be restricted to a niche group of compromised patients.
mandryka
pfm Member
I was upset by this post, in fact I made a reply and got so upset by it I deleted it! The bit that upset me was this
I suspect that many people are thinking like you. And the consequences of Farage’s strategy will be many more deaths of the vulnerable, more hope and life for the less vulnerable. I was upset because, quite honestly, I don’t know what to think myself, I am conflicted, I have lost confidence, I have no convictions any more.
gavreid
Pretty Words...
Keep up mate, I answered that some time ago with the graphs of hospitalisations. The impact of half term was so dramatic and sudden that it reduced R to 1 almost overnight. The effect wore off a week later, but there's a time lag on hospitalisations and then deaths of course, which we are still seeing. The lockdown is helping now too but it's still too early to say by how much, I'm seeing hospitalistations rising again over the last 3 or 4 days for example...
Interestingly :
"With the government considering the extent to which restrictions should be lifted to limit the impact on Christmas family gatherings, the latest Opinium poll for the Observer found that the public opted for a locked-down Christmas over new January restrictions by a margin of 54% to 33%."
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-new-covid-restrictions-in-january-poll-finds
Andrew C!
Been around a while....
I think we can pontificate about compliance with lockdowns and restrictions until we go blue in the face. You will never get full compliance, regardless of excuse or sanction. This is evidenced clearly in our little micro-bubble on here - some blame lack of direction, some alter it a bit to suit their personal circumstances, and some are prepared to take the risk and therefore do so(insert other reasons here).
Another angle I thought of this morning was comparing compliance to smoking.
Bear with me.
Some folk don’t smoke cos they know it’s bad for them. They don’t go to places where passive smoking happens, either. They don’t need governments and health experts to tell them this. Others don’t smoke, but accept the compromise of walking thru the smog for a nano-second to socially interact with others(pubs, etc). At the other end of the spectrum there are those that ignore the advice, smoke, and then expect health providers to pick up the aftermath because said smoker has paid for the service, and they expect to be treated.
I suppose it’s about informed choice(or ignorance)?
And then you add the fact the consequences aren’t transparent nor enforceable...
And then there is the vaccine debate...
Just some musings... ignore as usual
Another angle I thought of this morning was comparing compliance to smoking.
Bear with me.
Some folk don’t smoke cos they know it’s bad for them. They don’t go to places where passive smoking happens, either. They don’t need governments and health experts to tell them this. Others don’t smoke, but accept the compromise of walking thru the smog for a nano-second to socially interact with others(pubs, etc). At the other end of the spectrum there are those that ignore the advice, smoke, and then expect health providers to pick up the aftermath because said smoker has paid for the service, and they expect to be treated.
I suppose it’s about informed choice(or ignorance)?
And then you add the fact the consequences aren’t transparent nor enforceable...
And then there is the vaccine debate...
Just some musings... ignore as usual
mandryka
pfm Member
I hope so. But that’s certainly not what the tabloids are saying and I fear that we’ll see something reckless, whatever its other virtues will be in the very short term.
A long time ago someone posted here to say that watching events unfold is a bit like watching a train crash in slow motion. That’s how I feel. Without at least one of moonshot or a vaccine, things look very grim to me.
Tony L
Administrator
Agreed. This ONS chart (section 5) is pretty damning, contrast the curve in year 7-11 with the rest of the population, the dip being half-term. I really struggle with anyone who attempts to argue that schools (and universities) aren’t major distribution hubs for the virus. The evidence is clear. I am still waiting for proof that teaching staff are not at increased risk in these areas. All logic would suggest they were.
I really struggle with the whole concept of employment contracts vs. being asked to work in a biohazard scenario. I’m self-employed and have been for almost all of my working life, as such I have no contracts and any risk assessment lies 100% with me. If I feel safe I’ll do something, if not I won’t, and I do fully grasp the luxury/privilege of that position. I don’t think it is fair to force workers into positions that are clearly not covered on their employment contracts. I very much doubt there is a ‘you are expected to work in potentially lethal environments, this may include deadly viruses and other biohazards’ clause in a teacher’s or bus driver’s contract. As such WTF are we doing asking these people to turn up for work as normal? I could see the likelihood such a clause being implied in NHS contracts as they would be expected to treat victims with symptoms of unknown cause, even of chemical attack etc, e.g. the Russian poisonings in Salisbury etc, but not teachers etc. I also grasp we need essential services, e.g. supermarkets, online deliveries etc, but these are possible to manage in far safer ways than the long exposure to children in a teaching environment.
I’m also curious if there is a prospect for litigation from families if a teacher, tube driver or whoever has died from the virus. The risk is now known, so I’d have thought there was a strong argument to be made that staff had been placed at risk far beyond the scope of their employment contracts. The last thing I want to see is the tax payer taken for £billions in compensation payouts etc due to government incompetence, so from whatever perspective one has it makes sense to fully mange the risk. I’m surprised the unions are so quiet on this one.
Andrew C!
Been around a while....
Perhaps it’s a bad analogy, but I’m on about compliance and compromise. It’s also about the culture we live in, what is acceptable and who deems it so.
This is my point about how irrational this debate has become.
If you speak out against the lockdown, you’re branded a Covidiot, a conspiracy theorist or selfish. It’s a way of shutting down debate. Have a read of the Daily Mail article as I suspect you haven’t because a) it rejects your own argument and b) it’s the Daily Mail and you think it’s the source of all evil.
I’m none of these things. I just want an alternative to constant lockdowns and restrictions, which seemingly are being made without any plan (or an effective one) for what happens when we come out of them other than waiting for vaccines.
We also need to be having a debate about the impact these lockdowns have on mental health, other physical health conditions and people’s jobs and businesses and livelihoods. Is it selfish for caring about all these things when some people clearly think it’s all about Covid and nothing else? What is selfish about wanting to protect the vulnerable but balancing these public health needs against the economy and other health issues? This isn’t about me wanting to go to the gym etc but the undoubted mental and physical health benefits of such activities should mean they’re promoted not stopped by these measures.
As the Covid Recovery Group in Parliament have said, let’s weigh up the pros and cons of lockdown, let’s have a proper impact assessment of the lockdowns, and let’s try an find alternatives why we wait for vaccines.
People on here have been bluntly declaring we’d go into another extended lockdown but that hasn’t happened and they were wrong. We’ve seen that the tier system may be strengthened, but early indications with pub curfews reportedly being extended to 11pm, would suggest this may not be happening. Johnson and his libertarian instincts will now properly come out now that Cummings is out of the picture.
Tony L
Administrator
Can’t we just call them wannabe-Trump nutters?!
I think they'll be doing nothing of any note, now that the good news is out on vaccines they'll just do whatever it takes to tick along as-is until they roll them out.
Now is potentially the most dangerous time as the government is going to do nothing very proactive/controversial when it looks like a vaccine is close, my guess is they've already moved on to logistics of vaccine distribution and prioritising who gets what, rather than prevention.
Now is potentially the most dangerous time as the government is going to do nothing very proactive/controversial when it looks like a vaccine is close, my guess is they've already moved on to logistics of vaccine distribution and prioritising who gets what, rather than prevention.
gavreid
Pretty Words...
H&S law is strong but teachers are fragmented, particularly in secondary schools, by the academy network. They're certainly not going to walk out without a national lead from the union (who have been leant on by Starmer). We're seeing some organisation among FE college staff, a very small number of HE institutions that are now facing another round of redundancies, and from the EIS in Scotland though.
Not all those critical of lockdowns are Trump and Brexit supporters.
I’m a Labour voter and pro-EU, how does that fit into your theory?
Seanm
pfm Member
I agree things have become polarised on this to a point where there’s no debate at all. But I think we can all do our bit by not backing up our points with reference to the Daily Mail and the Covid Recovery Group, who are all clearly acting in bad faith.
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