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Coronavirus - the new strain XII

Discussion in 'off topic' started by russel, Oct 15, 2020.

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  1. tiggers

    tiggers pfm Member

    FFS I don’t even know where to start with this nonsense. The idea of a lockdown is to reduce the level of infection to something a decent test, trace and isolate system can then manage which alongside a few restrictions including a bit of distancing, mask wearing and hand washing can allow society to function fairly normally. This is what lockdown 1 achieved but the government screwed it up when their world beating track and trace system proved to be useless. Lockdown 2 is necessary because cases were running out of control again and the reason the NHS has not been overrun is because of the lockdowns. Lockdowns buy us time, they are not a case of kicking the can down the road if we use that time wisely, with this government we don’t so we end up here again. That is the fault of the government not lockdowns per se.
     
  2. droodzilla

    droodzilla pfm Member

    It's not just kicking the can down the road. Harder lockdown = more rapid fall in infection rate = quicker reopening of the economy. The idea that we have to choose between health and wealth has always been a myth.

    The idea of balancing COVID deaths against other adverse health impacts makes more sense but again, you can't do all those elective procedures if hospitals are overwhelmed with COVID patients, so it's another false dichotomy.

    Two or three hundred deaths a day for the foreseeable future sounds about right since we're running at 500 now and even the relatively limited lockdown we have is due to end in 10 days. Add Christmas to the mix and it looks like tens of thousands of people won't survive the Winter.
     
  3. Deej1992

    Deej1992 Well-Known Member

    All I’m saying guys is if you’re going to have a policy of lockdown have a plan. The plan during the first lockdown was we’d have a system of test, track and trace and the plan for this second one is to buy time to fix the system.

    We can’t just lockdown if there’s no end game in sight. Government policy right now seeks to be lockdown and hope the vaccine saves us.

    It is absolutely right to balance the pros of lockdown, suppressing and delaying the spread of the virus and buying time, with the consequences I’ve already outlined.

    Answer me a question - what is wrong with operating a tier system that has restrictions on our lives but which allows many businesses to reopen and other leisure/sporting activities which boost mental and physical health? We’ve already seen the restrictions at tier 3 level worked in driving infections down.

    Long, hard and full lockdowns are incredibly damaging, especially to mental health, where we’ve already seen suicides shoot up. You say we’re not really in a proper lockdown, but all non essential businesses have had to close, we can’t go to gyms or play football or see our family and friends. A lot of freedoms being given up there, and the government in allowing schools to stay open and people to exercise more freely with another person, or to form a support bubble, is their attempt to make this second lockdown more manageable. Who can blame them for trying to get the balance right?

    I’m a Labour voter through and through but I find myself agreeing with Nigel Farage and backbench Tory MPs on this issue. Never have I felt stronger, not even with Brexit (I’m vehemently pro EU) or people constantly voting Tory governments in!

    An endless cycle of lockdowns is incredibly damaging and we need an alternative fast.
     
  4. Deej1992

    Deej1992 Well-Known Member

  5. tiggers

    tiggers pfm Member

    Is there a banging your head against a wall smilie?
     
  6. Chops54

    Chops54 pfm Member

    Where I live hardly anyone appears to be taking the lockdown or covid restrictions seriously. Just this last week I've had several people ask me why I'm wearing this bloody stupid mask :eek:
     
  7. matt j

    matt j pfm Member

    I've a feeling they've been playing with the app again as I've not had a single notification in the last 2-3 weeks, before that I was getting at least one a day and nothing has changed at my end.
     
    PhilofCas likes this.
  8. MVV

    MVV pfm Member

    How odd. Where I live everyone wears a mask in shops or any other indoor public space. Are you wearing it in weird places like on top of a mountain or driving your car on your own?
     
  9. matt j

    matt j pfm Member

    Masks are hit and miss on my travels, staff in any of the places I go generally aren't wearing them, just customers. Petrol stations seem 50/50 even with a clear sign on the door stating masks to be worn. Still see people in supermarkets and the like without them on.
     
    Andrew C! and tiggers like this.
  10. droodzilla

    droodzilla pfm Member

    I agree with the bit in bold. It's the heart of the problem really because it looks like our government is incapable (maybe unwilling) of executing a plan that is almost universally acknowledged to save both lives and minimise economic damage. That plan is to implement mutliple short, sharp lockdowns (which coud be local in nature, if appropriate) and use efficient test, trace and isolate to monitor the spread between them.

    They can't say they weren't warned: https://twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1330091938557648896

    It's vital to realise that locking down early saves a lot of lives and buys a lot of time. The relationship is non-linear because of the exponential growth factor. It defies our usual ways of thinking about causes and effects, but that's the reality and it matters because it's the key to understanding the correct strategy.
     
    tiggers likes this.
  11. Deej1992

    Deej1992 Well-Known Member

    Crying yourself to sleep because the national lockdown isn’t being extended?
     
  12. Chops54

    Chops54 pfm Member


    No! I wear a mask only where I have to, shops, filling station, work places and such. We do have a couple of local shops that don't seem too bothered about customers not wearing masks. I went to a builders yard last week and they asked a customer to leave because he wasn't wearing a mask. Actually they offered to sell him one but he declined so was sent on his way :) It was at another yard where someone asked me why I had a mask on. Builders, plumbers and electricians seem to be the worst offenders tbh. I appreciate it can be difficult for some trades in a working environment but you have to make some sort of effort.
     
    ff1d1l and Andrew C! like this.
  13. 2ManyBoxes

    2ManyBoxes pfm Member

    Right, so bullets don't kill you, it's the tissue damage and the blood loss which probably brings on a final fatal heart attack. Bollocks.
     
  14. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    You heard Neil Ferguson say it a couple of days ago too. I've been watching cases rise ever since schools returned in Scotland in August. We've seen the effect of half term - hospitalisations are half of what they were projected to be in late October, that means maybe 2-300 lives per day in the here and now. If Schools were closed R would be well below 1 and we wouldn't be having this discussion.
     
  15. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

  16. tiggers

    tiggers pfm Member

    Nope, just can't believe there are people like you who are so selective about what they read (as you have amply demonstrated in here) solely in order to be able to advocate a way forward that goes against the broader science and evidence for that science solely because they are too bloody selfish to put up with a modicum of restriction to their lives and instead feel the need to get back down the pub, to the gym, go out with their mates etc.
     
    ff1d1l, mega lord and gavreid like this.
  17. tiggers

    tiggers pfm Member

    Yep and he'll doubtless ignore your response as he did mine saying the same thing! Doesn't suit his agenda you see!
     
  18. tiggers

    tiggers pfm Member

    Mask wearing does seem to vary by region. Where I live (Norfolk) very rarely do I see anyone not wearing one, but I have been to London a couple of times recently and Northampton once (all pre lockdown 2) and the wearing percentage in both of those places was a lot lower than where I live. I have a theory that for some reason urban areas have less buy in to the mask thing, maybe it's a higher percentage of young people, but it is a very noticeable difference to my more rural local area.
     
  19. farfromthesun

    farfromthesun pfm Member

    Stop reading the Daily Mail and following Piers Morgan on Twitter, for a start.

    Then, start absorbing the excellent work put in by gavreid, and the associated (not poor) rational debate on here and you'll likely get all of the necessary context that you're advocating for.
    According to the BMJ, this is not really accurate: https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4352
    Whilst you bemoan others for their negativity, you're basically doing the exact same thing, scraping soundbites from the Daily Mail or whatever, to try and justify your headless chicken view on this whole mess.
     
  20. MVV

    MVV pfm Member

    Maybe it’s about the strength of the sense of community? Mask wearing is a curtesy to others so as with other behaviours like throwing KFC wrappers out of a car window or indeed picking them up depends on how much you feel part of and care about your community.
     
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