Winter election III

[matthewr]

The whole country diverged from the 2017 results, then converged on them again. What's more likely: that the results this time resemble the 2017 election, or that they resemble the 2019 European election?

That's a bit of a straw man though, I think, as nobody outside wishful thinking Lib Dems takes too much from the 2019 Euro election and the various models are based on 2017 (over estimated Tory vote), 2015 (under estimated Tory vote) and previous general elections. There are also more things you can look at from 2017 that tell you something about whether this time is likely to be the same. E.g. Labour benefited from a significant rise in Corbyn's ratings and a collapse in Theresa May's which seems absent this time despite the awfulness of Johnson. Focusing on 2017 looks, to me, like a way to convince oneself that things will be good for Labour.

Although I do agree with your later point that there is so much uncertainty here that all a voter can really do is look at local conditions and campaigning and be guided by that.

BTW A bit harsh on the Observer about their article on marginals I think as that is Peter Kellner writing so it's more like his and YouGov's expert view than that of Guardian journalists.

 

[ff1d1l]

On Right Move looking at properties in Glen Coe

 

[ks.234]

Nice. Do the Banksy’s on the front and side make it more valuable?

 

[Stunsworth]

The point you appear to be missing isn't that Labour will lose it's that the New Conservatives will win with everything that entails.

I'm not missing it at all, apologies for not stating it explicitly. Media bias against the Labour party was always going to be there, the failure to deal with it has to be down to the leadership. I realise it's heresy to say it, but I people don't seem to like Corbyn. You can argue that personality shouldn't matter in a GE, but it obviously does. If Labour do lose on Thursday I hope that Corbyn will do the decent thing and let someone else take up the struggle.

 

[Woodface]

I still believe too much stall is put upon newspaper bias, the numbers of readers are tumbling & those that take notice are only having their own views reflected back at them. I think TV bias is more insidious but as I made my mind up a while back & voted accordingly I have avoided most of the coverage.

Whatever the result I don't think the blame can be laid solely at the media.

 

[kendo]

Nice. Do the Banksy’s on the front and side make it more valuable?

Location, location, stigmatization...really needs knocking down and something new built IMO.

 

[ks.234]

Location, location, stigmatization...really needs knocking down and something new built IMO.

Yes, only just found out about it’s previous owner. Is it still standing? If so, why?

 

[notaclue]

Our media offer no help whatsoever in navigating this kind of stuff and at the moment seem positively dedicated to amplifying lies and promoting false equivalences. It's no surprise that there are lots of people who are very confused about who to listen to or what's real and very angry about the whole state of affairs. The causes of this situation are not hard to identify but because they implicate journalists, public intellectuals and their friends we get arrogant, entitled s__te like Green's "The people obviously like to be lied to!" It really boils my piss.

He says "many voters". He does not say "the people". If you are going to criticise the media for this sort of stuff, you could also try being more accurate yourself.

 

[ks.234]

 

[kendo]

Yes, only just found out about it’s previous owner. Is it still standing? If so, why?

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/f...ce-owned-by-jimmy-savile-targeted-by-vandals/

 

[notaclue]

Look at the slimeball. Takes the phone and puts it in his pocket! https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1204018593656180736

 

[MVV]

I'm really not sure if a "sizeable proportion of the electorate is indeed racist/nascent fascists". I think a small proportion are. I think it is more about complexity and nuance. Whenever I get into a conversation with a Brexit party type on one level they may seem racist xenophobes when making sweeping generalisations. But when the conversation gets more granular, when we start to talk about people as individuals, people we know, people with with names nearly always they are decent people.
That is what saddens me, they are being promised simple solutions to complex, difficult and often 'wicked' issues, they are being had!

 

[MVV]

...and no-one, no-one in the political landscape is facing that. No-one.

 

[jackbarron]

I've actually moved from thinking a sizeable portion of electorate must be stupid to ignore BJ/Tory lies, racism and nascent fascism to actually believing based on the evidence doled up daily in the media that a sizeable proportion of the electorate is indeed racist/nascent fascist and BJ is exactly their type of leader.

That's what I believe as well. It's also a major reason why people voted Leave, whatever their Party.

Jack

 

[roman]

I still believe too much stall is put upon newspaper bias, the numbers of readers are tumbling & those that take notice are only having their own views reflected back at them. I think TV bias is more insidious but as I made my mind up a while back & voted accordingly I have avoided most of the coverage.

Whatever the result I don't think the blame can be laid solely at the media.

Circulation may be dwindling but the papers continue to exert an influence in older age groups. They are owned by very wealthy people with an agenda which they hammer home on a daily basis, peddling lies in bold, their occasional apologies buried with the elasticated trouser adds on page 40.

The papers still set the agenda for other forms of media. A look at the front pages last thing on newsnight or whatever and a springboard for radio phone in shows the next day, all backed up of course with their own websites for those wanting to pollute their minds even more.

Whatever their overall impact, the fact they are four fifths right wing is a big problem.

 

[cooky1257]

I'm not missing it at all, apologies for not stating it explicitly. Media bias against the Labour party was always going to be there, the failure to deal with it has to be down to the leadership. I realise it's heresy to say it, but I people don't seem to like Corbyn. You can argue that personality shouldn't matter in a GE, but it obviously does. If Labour do lose on Thursday I hope that Corbyn will do the decent thing and let someone else take up the struggle.

I wasn't being a bleeding heart or getting my excuses in early I was making an observation that the country has changed, there is a brutality, a lack of empathy an atmosphere where casual racism and institutional cruelty is the norm, giving permission if you will to condone not challenge. Social media is riven with it. If the Tories and BJ can behave this way whilst seeking your vote can you imagine what they'll do once they have secured it?

 

[matt j]

Finally, I've found my people...

 

[eternumviti]

I’m not sure where my neighbour, who told me ‘of course he lies, he’s got to if he is going to get Brexit sorted out!’ fits in these analyses.

I have a certain amount of sympathy with that point of view. I keep saying it, the EC is a writhing nest of lying vipers, and Johnson has just two jobs. The first is extricating the UK from that nest of vipers, and it's fair to assume that he's amongst his own kind. He knows how they tick, because its how he ticks.

The other one is to get elected, and thus to destroy Marxist aspirations for another generation. Assuming all his promises come to nothing, he can be dealt with at the next election, by which time there should be an opposition that has progressed beyond the university student's union barroom table top circa 1975.

Just as a point of logic, a newspaper breaking IPSO regulations with regard to an individual doesn't mean that there's no antisemitism among other Labour party members.

The IPSO deals in facts, not necessarily truths. I'll wager there's still smoke emanting from that particular non-fire. The somewhat bigger picture is that Labour is currently being investigated by the EHRC, which is looking at around 70 allegations from within the party itself. The only other political party ever to be investigated by the EHRC was the BNP.

The Jewish Cronical story is merely the tip of the iceberg.

And neither did I say otherwise. But the accusation is not that antisemitism exists, it is that it is widespread and institutional within the Labour Party in particular and that Corbyn personally is an existential threat to all Jewishness.

As I’ve said before many times, if the is one antisemitism in the Labour Party that is one too many and they should be kicked out. I suspect there are many more who cannot tell the difference between criticising the State of Israel and criticising Jewishness as a whole and those people should either recognise their error or leave.

But let’s at least consider the evidence before we jump to any conclusions...and the IPSO ruling shows that at least some of that evidence is falsely based

Why is the British left so obsessed with Isreal?

That's what I believe as well. This is also a major reason why they voted for Leave, whatever their Party.

Jack

Jack, everyone knows what you believe. You barely ever post without reminding us all.

I guess that if you keep repeating it, it somehow purges you.

 

[ks.234]

Why is the British left so obsessed with Isreal?

It isn’t

 

[Seanm]

That's a bit of a straw man though, I think, as nobody outside wishful thinking Lib Dems takes too much from the 2019 Euro election and the various models are based on 2017 (over estimated Tory vote), 2015 (under estimated Tory vote) and previous general elections. There are also more things you can look at from 2017 that tell you something about whether this time is likely to be the same. E.g. Labour benefited from a significant rise in Corbyn's ratings and a collapse in Theresa May's which seems absent this time despite the awfulness of Johnson. Focusing on 2017 looks, to me, like a way to convince oneself that things will be good for Labour.

Although I do agree with your later point that there is so much uncertainty here that all a voter can really do is look at local conditions and campaigning and be guided by that.

BTW A bit harsh on the Observer about their article on marginals I think as that is Peter Kellner writing so it's more like his and YouGov's expert view than that of Guardian journalists.

I strongly suspect/am desperately hoping that the pollsters have found new and surprising ways to f things up this time around. I've been spending my time in marginals and obviously you get only a partial and impressionistic view of things knocking on doors but these are the places where a collapse in the Labour vote ought to be obvious, and it's not.

Why I'm ranty about the tactical voting sites and the Lib Dems is that we *are* hearing a lot of "Oh, I thought the Lib Dems were second last time!" This is in places where 100 votes either way can make all the difference. They think this because this is what the Lib Dem bar leaflets have told them, and the leaflets are absolutely unavoidable. That's one thing, but then to have The Observer/Guardian confirm it...I mean they might have had a sub cast an eye over that article, the stakes are pretty high.