Which part of the (former) UK will rejoin the European Union first?

[TheDecameron]

I think it will happen, but a l-o-n-g- time in the future. The last thing the Irish want (and need) is (a) the bill, currently footed by the UK taxpayer, and (b) three-quarters of a million unwilling Unionists, not necessarily in that order. IMHO (northern Prod here) it would be nice if it happened by the centenary of Partition (next year), but, barring some cataclysmic development, there's absolutely no chance of that happening.

And there remains a possibility that it might never happen. After a century, the two bits of Ireland have developed different cultures, and the combination of the two, while respecting what each sees as its rights, could be problematic. The Shinners naturally say there'd be no problem, but then they comply with the classic definition of a fanatic - someone with both feet firmly planted in the air.

Did you see the replumbing and rewiring job in Berlin in the 90s? It was fascinating to watch cabling and pipework going in, above ground, over roads, round buildings. Due respect to Markus Wolf though- he had electricians down there for years ‘reunifying’ the telephone service.

 

[glancaster]

I think it will happen, but a l-o-n-g- time in the future. The last thing the Irish want (and need) is (a) the bill, currently footed by the UK taxpayer, and (b) three-quarters of a million unwilling Unionists, not necessarily in that order. IMHO (northern Prod here) it would be nice if it happened by the centenary of Partition (next year), but, barring some cataclysmic development, there's absolutely no chance of that happening.

And there remains a possibility that it might never happen. After a century, the two bits of Ireland have developed different cultures, and the combination of the two, while respecting what each sees as its rights, could be problematic. The Shinners naturally say there'd be no problem, but then they comply with the classic definition of a fanatic - someone with both feet firmly planted in the air.

The other factor that may prove significant is post-Brexit NI’s special status within both the UK and (de facto) the EU. We’ll have to see how it works in practice. However, that may prove very attractive to some businesses, providing an economic boost they would be loathe to give up.

 

[Konteebos]

Unless the rules change substantially, none will. Currently any joiner has to adopt the Euro as currency and, despite what the loony leavers think, the UK had fantastically advantageous conditions of membership that would never be handed out again.

The cost and logistics of a hard EU border where none has ever existed in the past except Eire/N Ireland (which was MIGHTY porous anyway)?

But rules can change.

Any new member has to adopt the Euro "once they meet the criteria" for joining the Euro, it's pretty easy to deliberately not meet the criteria, and hence, postpone adopting the Euro indefinitely.

 

[eternumviti]

Best of luck to them... and yes I'm English (sadly as I detest England and being English right now....)

There's a lot of that on the political threads of this forum. It mirrors one the guiding principles of Corbyn's Labours, oddly, except he spent his political career going that little bit further and offering support to some this country's (and the West's) nastier enemies.

 

[deanf]

Why? Scotland will certainly be in deep trouble when Scotland goes.

Competition.

Not so much the country as the majority of people but England (and Wales) will be in trouble because Scotland will become a very attractive trading post into England. Businesses prefer to be in the EU so will slowly drift over, we'll have a Tory government for decades which will happily allow a vaguely free market to drive down living and working conditions in order to stay competitive. Using clever marketing to make us think it’s someone else’s fault.

 

[Brian]

The lastest from the BBC on Scotland:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-51357050

Border checks. How to get a 7% deficit down to 3% etc. Real problems none of the nationalists want to face.

 

[TheDecameron]

Sweating Raab doing the work for us already,


“Dominic Raab has rebuked a senior European leader for making the “irresponsible” suggestion that the EU would welcome an application for membership from an independent Scotland”.
(The Times)


...something tells me he’s not going to be in a position to rebuke anyone from the EU.

 

[tiggers]

There's a lot of that on the political threads of this forum. It mirrors one the guiding principles of Corbyn's Labours, oddly, except he spent his political career going that little bit further and offering support to some this country's (and the West's) nastier enemies.

What's your point?

 

[TheDecameron]

What's your point?

File ( along with Traitors, Enemies of The People etc ) under increasingly needy calls for “patriotism”.

 

[tones]

The other factor that may prove significant is post-Brexit NI’s special status within both the UK and (de facto) the EU. We’ll have to see how it works in practice. However, that may prove very attractive to some businesses, providing an economic boost they would be loathe to give up.

The reimposition of a "hard" border between the two parts of Ireland is the thing to be avoided. An old university friend, living in a farming community in Tyrone, tells me that some milk-based products cross the border seven times before they're finished. Border controls would be disastrous.

The DUP complains that Norn Iron is being treated differently from the rest of the UK - slightly overlooking the fact that Norn Iron has always been treated differently from the rest of the UK. After Partition, Westminster worked on the principle of "ignore it, and maybe it'll go away". The Unionists were Conservative allies, so they got to do whatever they wanted, namely discriminate against the one-third of the population that was Catholic/Nationalist, seeking to ensure that they would never be in a position to challenge Unionist dominance. "A Protestant Parliament for a Protestant people" said James Craig, Norn Iron's first Prime Monster. It wasn't until the civil rights marches of the 1960s and the subsequent explosion that Westminster had to consider seriously this bizarre little corner of the alleged UK. The ghost of James Craig would not be happy now...

 

[eternumviti]

Competition.

Not so much the country as the majority of people but England (and Wales) will be in trouble because Scotland will become a very attractive trading post into England. Businesses prefer to be in the EU so will slowly drift over, we'll have a Tory government for decades which will happily allow a vaguely free market to drive down living and working conditions in order to stay competitive. Using clever marketing to make us think it’s someone else’s fault.

Scotland will still have to abide by the same rules, tariffs and non-tariff obstructions as all of the dUK's other EU neighbours.

Scotland has more immediate problems I should think, and that's aside from the awful shambles that the SNP is creating in the NHS and education. What is it, 60% or is it 70% of Scottish exports are across the border. What will happen to that if the UK goes out in WTO next year and Scotland leaves the union. What currency will it use in any interim, what will happen to the economy and services when it is suddenly unplugged from the UK taxpayer's teat, and how will it get its deficit down from 7% to the less than 3% required by the EZ. How will it replace the representation that it currently enjoys with 59 of Westminster's 650 MPs being replaced by a mere 8 of the 680 odd EU MEPs, and an increasingly devolved parliament handing swathes of its powers to Brussels? Will the EU even accept its accession?

 

[eternumviti]

What's your point?

That was my point.

 

[kensalriser]

The Tory party puts the Tory party first, it doesn’t care about NI.

I would say that the vast majority of English Tory voters don't care about NI at all. Indeed, had they been offered a tow-it-out-and-sink-it referendum during the troubles it would have been 90% plus in favour.

 

[SteveS1]

Sweating Raab doing the work for us already,


“Dominic Raab has rebuked a senior European leader for making the “irresponsible” suggestion that the EU would welcome an application for membership from an independent Scotland”.
(The Times)


...something tells me he’s not going to be in a position to rebuke anyone from the EU.

He’s like a mad dog that keeps biting his own bollocks. I think he smells re-shuffle. Must be time to junk the horrendous Pritti Patel too.

 

[deanf]

Can we stop using evidence and facts please, they have no place in a debate such as this and people are getting just about sick of it.

 

[tones]

I would say that the vast majority of English Tory voters don't care about NI at all. Indeed, had they been offered a tow-it-out-and-sink-it referendum during the troubles it would have been 90% plus in favour.

Ditto quite a substantial proportion of the population of Ireland! I can well remember an editorial in one of the major Irish newspapers at the height of the Drumcree standoff, which bore the headline A PLAGUE ON BOTH NORTHERN HOUSES. In essence, it said, we have enough problems down here without having to deal with two bunches of eejits who only want to fight each other.

 

[Colin Barron]

It's a completely different political landscape now to when the last referendum was held. Back then Scotland was in the EU and any notion of splitting up the UK was based on romance as much as anything else. Now with Scotland voting to remain in the EU and (Little) England voting to leave there is a massive political and social division between the two nations. I keep hearing from various Tory ****ers that London voted to remain so why should Scotland be considered differently... well obviously because it's a country in its own right FFS! FWIW I think they deserve a second referendum and personally I hope they vote leave and make a go of it. Best of luck to them... and yes I'm English (sadly as I detest England and being English right now - it's a ****ing embarrassment frankly).

Who will pick up the bill if Scotland gained independence? The EU will lose about £12 billion net contribution from the UK. Why would the EU want another country that cannot make a net contribution when they already have 22 other countries in that position.

 

[TheDecameron]

I’m enjoying the confident predictions on this topic from the Brexit minority on pfm. This year will turn out to be the cruncher- the wishful thinking replaced by the real Brexit and a taste of the damage from it, so I have every confidence Johnson is going to deliver for us in Scotland. Given the context, you simply couldn’t ask for a safer pair of hands.

 

[Colin Barron]

The lastest from the BBC on Scotland:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-51357050

Border checks. How to get a 7% deficit down to 3% etc. Real problems none of the nationalists want to face.

The Scots have not yet developed the Greek accounting method of capitalising a revenue budget to make the spend appear to be a capital investment.

 

[Colin Barron]

I’m enjoying the confident predictions on this topic from the Brexit minority on pfm. This year will turn out to be the cruncher- the wishful thinking replaced by the real Brexit and a taste of the damage from it, so I have every confidence Johnson is going to deliver for us in Scotland. Given the context, you simply couldn’t ask for a safer pair of hands.

Would that be the same minority that predicted a yes for Bexit and the Tories would win the last election?