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Vast Brexit thread merge part II

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A few missing steps there. After a successful VoNC, the Queen needs to invite someone else, presumably Corbyn, to lead a new government (forcing Johnson to stand aside if he does not do so of his own accord), there needs to be a successful vote of confidence in the new government (within two weeks of the VoNC), and that new government needs to survive long enough to talk to the EU and hold a referendum. This requires the support of almost all of the non-Tory, non-DUP part of the Commons together, including many ex-Tories. It's a really tall order, requiring a masterclass in consensus building. Get it wrong at any point after the VoNC and you are looking at a general election, possibly a post-Brexit one.

This could have been done months ago (and more safely than from the current position), but wasn't, presumably because the support wasn't there. Could the ruling change the situation sufficiently?

I have my doubts.

Kind regards

- Garry

Wouldn't a successful VONC be a valid reason to extend Article 50? Then there would be more time for the above scenario to play out.
 
Wouldn't a successful VONC be a valid reason to extend Article 50? Then there would be more time for the above scenario to play out.

No, it doesn't even get rid of the government by itself. The rules are here:

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/section/2/enacted

However, there are also constitutional conventions about a change of government without an election. What normally happens is that the current PM resigns and recommends his or her successor to the Queen. Prior to the passing of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, a PM who lost a VoNC also had the option of asking Her Maj to call a general election instead. So this part of the process isn't entirely clear right now, at least not to me. This PM seems a bit 'fighty' to me, so I wouldn't expect a smooth transition.
 
Day 1 of No Deal Brexit. Farage and Boris forgot to mention that the automatic EU tariffs on UK dairy and meat products will immediately price them out of their biggest export market, the EU and the overcapacity will result in mass slaughter of dairy herds and wipe out farmers. Take back control.

via Imgflip Meme Generator

I look back with great affection upon the time when our European friends and neighbours gamed the BSE horror to the advantage of their own industries by refusing to import British beef long after it had been cleared and declared safe by the UK and the EU Commission. Friends, neighbours, mutual co-operation, peace, love and harmony and so on.

As I understand it the vast majority of our trade in beef is with Ireland. The UK is pretty much self-sufficient in beef, and exports veer towards lower-grade meats and offal, though the UK beef industry does have a reputation for producing excellent grass-finished beef at the upper end of the market, and which lends itself far better to the extended ageing which has become fashionable than the leaner continental breeds. Should the UK government impose tariffs on imports of selective beef products it could serve the UK industry well, as it would allow the producers to improve margins.

Sheepmeat is the big problem, vast quantities exported to France. UK lamb is very popular in France, where it is appreciated for its quality. France is not self-sufficient in sheepmeat, and most of the NZ production is lapped up by China. In short, France both wants and needs UK sheepmeat. I suspect accomodation will be found.
 
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I think the courts have found that there is no contradiction between 'no deal' Brexit and the GFA.

More to the point there is a hard border there right now, different visa rules, VAT rules, tariff rules. You cannot move goods freely across borders anywhere in the EU. The SNP are going to find this out the hard way should they ever succeed in leaving the UK's single market.

Quite so. And excise duty too. Much of the goods which pass across the NI/Irish border are excisable products - alcohol and fuel. There seems to be no requirement for border infrastructure to monitor this trade and collect taxes as it is done seemlessly using existing technology and systems.

If the Supreme Court do deliver a verdict that prorogation was unlawful, then IMO Parliament should be re-opened immediately followed by a VONC in this rotten government. The sooner they go the better.

Then Labour can work out a better deal with the EU and put it to the public in a referendum against Remain.

Labour can work out a better deal. Isn't that in the unicorn realm?

404 Democracy Not Found

I don't suppose you would recognise the irony in that comment.
 
Call me old fashioned, call me lots of unpleasant epithets but I cannot bring myself to be as pessimistic and as cynical as you eternumviti. I reckon given the chance Labour could get a better deal with the EU. One that cost this countries tax payers more money and one that would be more advantageous to the EU........
 
Quite so. And excise duty too. Much of the goods which pass across the NI/Irish border are excisable products - alcohol and fuel. There seems to be no requirement for border infrastructure to monitor this trade and collect taxes as it is done seemlessly using existing technology and systems.



Labour can work out a better deal. Isn't that in the unicorn realm?



I don't suppose you would recognise the irony in that comment.
Here’s your chance to help the poor Greeks now, with huge financial losses at the hands of Brexit Island’s second biggest tour operator. They’re going to be left high and dry with unpaid bills for the 50,000 Brits over there currently and the rooms booked out into the future. Though I’m sure youre entirely capable of pinching your nostrils while you look away and tutting at the same time.
 
Call me old fashioned, call me lots of unpleasant epithets but I cannot bring myself to be as pessimistic and as cynical as you eternumviti. I reckon given the chance Labour could get a better deal with the EU. One that cost this countries tax payers more money and one that would be more advantageous to the EU........
Indeed; starting without May’s red lines gives both sides considerably more room to manoeuvre.
 
Here’s your chance to help the poor Greeks now, with huge financial losses at the hands of Brexit Island’s second biggest tour operator. They’re going to be left high and dry with unpaid bills for the 50,000 Brits over there currently and the rooms booked out into the future. Though I’m sure youre entirely capable of pinching your nostrils while you look away and tutting at the same time.

Perhaps you could explain to the class exactly what the travails of Thomas Cook have to do with the UK's vote to be able to hire and to sanction the people responsible for making our laws, protecting our borders and spending our taxes?
 
Perhaps you could explain to everyone exactly what the travails of Thomas Cook have to do with the UK's vote to be able to hire and to sanction the people responsible for making our laws, protecting our borders and spending our taxes?
It’s about putting your money where your mouth is rather than the peacock displays of purity of creed.
I’ll also be curious to see your (non) reaction to British post-Brexit tariffs on African food imports.
 
It’s about putting your money where your mouth is rather than the peacock displays of purity of creed.

No, it's completely irrelevant, red-herring posturing. I'm sure there are a number of words for it in the urban dictionary, the one that leaps to mind is 'cobblers'.

Thomas Cook is not a UK government policy. The Euro is an EU policy, creed and core belief.
 
I look back with great affection upon the time when our European friends and neighbours gamed the BSE horror to the advantage of their own industries by refusing to import British beef long after it had been cleared and declared safe by the UK and the EU Commission. Friends, neighbours, mutual co-operation, peace, love and harmony and so on.

As I understand it the vast majority of our trade in beef is with Ireland. The UK is pretty much self-sufficient in beef, and exports veer towards lower-grade meats and offal, though the UK beef industry does have a reputation for producing excellent grass-finished beef at the upper end of the market, and which lends itself far better to the extended ageing which has become fashionable then the leaner continental breeds. Should the UK government impose tariffs on imports of selective beef products it could serve the UK industry well, as it would allow the producers to improve margins.

Sheepmeat is the big problem, vast quantities exported to France. UK lamb is very popular in France, where it is appreciated for its quality. France is not self-sufficient in sheepmeat, and most of the NZ production is lapped up by China. In short, France both wants and needs UK sheepmeat. I suspect accomodation will be found.


It's good to know that you enjoy your beef BSE'd...


Mad cow disease – a very British response to an international crisis

BSE's unheralded arrival in the UK – it might have in fact existed since the 1970s at such a low level that farmers and vets did not notice it – was to wreak havoc in agriculture, undermine trust in government and sour international relations. The linked human disease, called variant CJD, or "the British disease" in some quarters, has caused the lingering deaths of 176 Britons and nearly 50 others around the world, including three in the US. The whole episode has cost the British taxpayers billions.

After 14 years, the UK government in 2000 finally accepted, after a long, detailed and costly independent inquiry, that the failures of successive administrations had contributed to the BSE catastrophe.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2012/apr/25/mad-cow-disease-british-crisis


Public misled over BSE

A searing indictment of the way the former Conservative government dismissed public fears over "mad cow" disease is revealed by the long-awaited report of the BSE inquiry, published yesterday.

A catalogue of errors and misjudgements occurred in practically every sphere of government that dealt with the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) crisis over a 10-year period, the £16m inquiry found.
Almost every person in authority, from ministers to civil servants, is criticised by the report for taking a subjective view towards the very real risks of the disease crossing from cattle to humans.

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-...ealth-news/public-misled-over-bse-634244.html



BSE timeline


3D1bpfo.gif


July 1989
EC bans export of cattle born before July 1988.

November 1989
Ban on use of cows brain and spinal cord for human consumption.

March 1990
EC restricts exports of cattle to those under six months.

May 1990
Agriculture Minister John Gummer and his daughter eat beef burgers in front of British press.

September 1990
Ban on using cow brains and spinal cords in Animal feed.

July 1993
100,000th case of BSE in Britain.

1995
First deaths from new variant CJD.

December 1995
Ban on using mechanically recovered meat for human consumption.

21 March 1996
Government announces suspected link between BSE and human equivalent, CJD.

27 March 1996
EC announces worldwide export ban on all British beef.

21 May 1996
UK begins policy of non co-operation with EU partners until ban is lifted.

24 May 1996
The UK applies to the European Court of Justice to have the ban overturned.

12 June 1996
UK proposes phased lifting of ban, including exemption of cattle from herds certified as never having had BSE.

1 June 1996
European Heads of Government agree to the Florence Framework for the progressive removal of the ban. The Agreement outlined five pre-conditions for the resumption of exports:
• A selective slaughter programme of "at risk" animals to speed up the eradication of BSE in the UK.
• Improved systems of animal identification and tracing.
• Legislation for the removal of meat and bone meal from feed mills and farms.
• Effective implementation of the Over Thirty Month slaughter scheme.
• Vigorous and effective removal of specified risk materials from carcasses.
UK drops its policy of disrupting EU business to get the ban lifted.


18 July 1996
The European Parliament sets up a Temporary Committee of Inquiry to investigate alleged maladministration in relation to BSE in the EC. It produces a report the following February which was critical of the UK and the Commission in its handling of the BSE crisis.

December 1996
Britain announces that the backlog of animals waiting to be slaughtered under the Over Thirty Month Scheme is cleared. Proposals for a certified heads scheme are announced. The selective cull of cattle most at risk of BSE is announced which means that the UK has acted on all five pre-conditions of the Florence Agreement.

April 1997

The European Parliament sets up a new Temporary Committee to monitor the European Commission's follow up actions to the first committee's recommendations. It produces its final report in November 1997.

May 1997

Government says it may ban imports of beef from Germany and other EU countries which do not observe Britain's strict abattoir hygiene controls.

30 September 1997

The Advocate General says the EU beef ban was lawful and on 5 May 1998 the ECJ upheld its validity. Although a ruling on the vailidity of the ban was still nine months away, the UK concentrates its efforts on lifting the ban through negotiation and agreement with EU partners.

2 October 1997

A proposal for a UK Date Based Export Scheme is submitted to the European Commission along with a paper giving the scientific rationale for the proposal. The proposal includes plans for the compulsory slaughter of all offspring born to BSE infected cows on or after 1 August 1996.

9 December 1997

The UK proposal is considered by Scientific Steering Committee which responds positive but indicated the Commission would need to be satsified with the control mechanisms.

December 1997

Government announces one-off compensation of £85m to beef farmers.

January 1998

A £2m marketing campaign is launched to attempt to restore confidence in British beef. The EU makes a financial contribution to the scheme.

February 1998

Government bans sale of beef on the bone.

9 March 1998

Public inquiry into the origin and spread of BSE and its human equivalent, CJD, opens in London.

16 March 1998

EU vets approve the removal of the ban on British beef exports from certified heads in Northern Ireland. The decision is later ratified by the EC.

1 June 1998

Northern Ireland farmers resume exports - the first time UK beef has been sold abroad since March 1996.

10 June 1998

The European Commission recommends lifting the export ban on British beef for animals born after August 1996.

28 September 1998

Although not a pre-requisite of the Florence Agreement, a computerised cattle traceability system is introduced to the UK. It holds details of all cattle registered or imported into the country.

28 October 1998

An amended proposal is accepted which was voted on by the Standing Veterinary Committee on 4 November 1998. The proposal was due to be tabled at the November Agricultural Council for discussion and a vote.

23 November 1998

European Union farm ministers lift the 32-month ban on the export of beef from the UK. Resumption of exports is expected in March 1999.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/218676.stm

MARCH 1996

The worldwide export of British beef is banned amid fears over the threat of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) or "mad cow disease".
The global export ban covers UK live cattle, meat and products.

JULY 1999
After more than three years of a trade blockade, the European Commission, on the advice of its scientific committee, announces an easing of the ban.
It allows exports of British boneless beef and products to recommence on 1 August.
Under the Date Based Export Scheme, exports are limited to beef and products from animals born after August 1996 and aged between six and 30 months.
The export of live cattle remains banned.

AUGUST 1999
The official end of the export ban is celebrated by farmers as the first consignments of animals due for export are prepared for slaughter and a marketing drive - centred on France - begins.
The farmers are subsequently angered when France and Germany announce they will not lift their bans on British beef because they have further questions over their safety.

NOVEMBER 1999
EU food safety commissioner David Byrne announces the start of legal action against France for refusing to lift the ban.

DECEMBER 1999
French PM Lionel Jospin says his country will not lift the ban and threatens to take the EU to court for trying to force it to take British beef.

FEBRUARY 2000
The European Commission begins legal action against Germany for its failure to lift its ban.

MARCH 2000
Germany agrees to lift its ban but France maintains it will not. Legal action against Paris goes ahead.

DECEMBER 2001
The European Court of Justice says France, in continuing with its ban, is acting illegally.

SEPTEMBER 2002
France's food safety agency announces that it is at last in favour of lifting its ban on UK beef.

MAY 2004
UK meat production safeguards mean British beef is as safe as meat from anywhere else in Europe, the European Food Safety Authority declares.
The authority also predicts the BSE risk will fall from "high" to "moderate" by the end of the year.
The annual incidence of BSE has now fallen to less than 200 cases per 1 million adult cattle.
The epidemic peaked at an annual total of more than 37,000 clinical cases in 1992.

SEPTEMBER 2005
The European Commission confirms the "moderate risk" status of British beef - the same as in the rest of Europe.
It also announces a final thumbs up for British beef after anti-BSE controls on farms and slaughterhouses in the UK are inspected.
Formal talks can now begin with EU governments on a road map for lifting the beef ban completely, the Commission says.

MARCH 2006
The worldwide ban on British beef exports is lifted by the EU almost exactly 10 years since it was imposed.
Veterinary experts vote to allow the UK to export live animals born on or after 1 August 1996, and beef and products from cattle slaughtered after 15 June 2005.
This brings the UK back into line with other EU countries.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4785610.stm
 
It's good to know that you enjoy your beef BSE'd...


Mad cow disease – a very British response to an international crisis

BSE's unheralded arrival in the UK – it might have in fact existed since the 1970s at such a low level that farmers and vets did not notice it – was to wreak havoc in agriculture, undermine trust in government and sour international relations. The linked human disease, called variant CJD, or "the British disease" in some quarters, has caused the lingering deaths of 176 Britons and nearly 50 others around the world, including three in the US. The whole episode has cost the British taxpayers billions.

After 14 years, the UK government in 2000 finally accepted, after a long, detailed and costly independent inquiry, that the failures of successive administrations had contributed to the BSE catastrophe.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2012/apr/25/mad-cow-disease-british-crisis


Public misled over BSE

A searing indictment of the way the former Conservative government dismissed public fears over "mad cow" disease is revealed by the long-awaited report of the BSE inquiry, published yesterday.

A catalogue of errors and misjudgements occurred in practically every sphere of government that dealt with the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) crisis over a 10-year period, the £16m inquiry found.
Almost every person in authority, from ministers to civil servants, is criticised by the report for taking a subjective view towards the very real risks of the disease crossing from cattle to humans.

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-...ealth-news/public-misled-over-bse-634244.html



BSE timeline


3D1bpfo.gif


July 1989
EC bans export of cattle born before July 1988.

November 1989
Ban on use of cows brain and spinal cord for human consumption.

March 1990
EC restricts exports of cattle to those under six months.

May 1990
Agriculture Minister John Gummer and his daughter eat beef burgers in front of British press.

September 1990
Ban on using cow brains and spinal cords in Animal feed.

July 1993
100,000th case of BSE in Britain.

1995
First deaths from new variant CJD.

December 1995
Ban on using mechanically recovered meat for human consumption.

21 March 1996
Government announces suspected link between BSE and human equivalent, CJD.

27 March 1996
EC announces worldwide export ban on all British beef.

21 May 1996
UK begins policy of non co-operation with EU partners until ban is lifted.

24 May 1996
The UK applies to the European Court of Justice to have the ban overturned.

12 June 1996
UK proposes phased lifting of ban, including exemption of cattle from herds certified as never having had BSE.

1 June 1996
European Heads of Government agree to the Florence Framework for the progressive removal of the ban. The Agreement outlined five pre-conditions for the resumption of exports:
• A selective slaughter programme of "at risk" animals to speed up the eradication of BSE in the UK.
• Improved systems of animal identification and tracing.
• Legislation for the removal of meat and bone meal from feed mills and farms.
• Effective implementation of the Over Thirty Month slaughter scheme.
• Vigorous and effective removal of specified risk materials from carcasses.
UK drops its policy of disrupting EU business to get the ban lifted.


18 July 1996
The European Parliament sets up a Temporary Committee of Inquiry to investigate alleged maladministration in relation to BSE in the EC. It produces a report the following February which was critical of the UK and the Commission in its handling of the BSE crisis.

December 1996
Britain announces that the backlog of animals waiting to be slaughtered under the Over Thirty Month Scheme is cleared. Proposals for a certified heads scheme are announced. The selective cull of cattle most at risk of BSE is announced which means that the UK has acted on all five pre-conditions of the Florence Agreement.

April 1997

The European Parliament sets up a new Temporary Committee to monitor the European Commission's follow up actions to the first committee's recommendations. It produces its final report in November 1997.

May 1997

Government says it may ban imports of beef from Germany and other EU countries which do not observe Britain's strict abattoir hygiene controls.

30 September 1997

The Advocate General says the EU beef ban was lawful and on 5 May 1998 the ECJ upheld its validity. Although a ruling on the vailidity of the ban was still nine months away, the UK concentrates its efforts on lifting the ban through negotiation and agreement with EU partners.

2 October 1997

A proposal for a UK Date Based Export Scheme is submitted to the European Commission along with a paper giving the scientific rationale for the proposal. The proposal includes plans for the compulsory slaughter of all offspring born to BSE infected cows on or after 1 August 1996.

9 December 1997

The UK proposal is considered by Scientific Steering Committee which responds positive but indicated the Commission would need to be satsified with the control mechanisms.

December 1997

Government announces one-off compensation of £85m to beef farmers.

January 1998

A £2m marketing campaign is launched to attempt to restore confidence in British beef. The EU makes a financial contribution to the scheme.

February 1998

Government bans sale of beef on the bone.

9 March 1998

Public inquiry into the origin and spread of BSE and its human equivalent, CJD, opens in London.

16 March 1998

EU vets approve the removal of the ban on British beef exports from certified heads in Northern Ireland. The decision is later ratified by the EC.

1 June 1998

Northern Ireland farmers resume exports - the first time UK beef has been sold abroad since March 1996.

10 June 1998

The European Commission recommends lifting the export ban on British beef for animals born after August 1996.

28 September 1998

Although not a pre-requisite of the Florence Agreement, a computerised cattle traceability system is introduced to the UK. It holds details of all cattle registered or imported into the country.

28 October 1998

An amended proposal is accepted which was voted on by the Standing Veterinary Committee on 4 November 1998. The proposal was due to be tabled at the November Agricultural Council for discussion and a vote.

23 November 1998

European Union farm ministers lift the 32-month ban on the export of beef from the UK. Resumption of exports is expected in March 1999.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/218676.stm

MARCH 1996

The worldwide export of British beef is banned amid fears over the threat of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) or "mad cow disease".
The global export ban covers UK live cattle, meat and products.

JULY 1999
After more than three years of a trade blockade, the European Commission, on the advice of its scientific committee, announces an easing of the ban.
It allows exports of British boneless beef and products to recommence on 1 August.
Under the Date Based Export Scheme, exports are limited to beef and products from animals born after August 1996 and aged between six and 30 months.
The export of live cattle remains banned.

AUGUST 1999
The official end of the export ban is celebrated by farmers as the first consignments of animals due for export are prepared for slaughter and a marketing drive - centred on France - begins.
The farmers are subsequently angered when France and Germany announce they will not lift their bans on British beef because they have further questions over their safety.

NOVEMBER 1999
EU food safety commissioner David Byrne announces the start of legal action against France for refusing to lift the ban.

DECEMBER 1999
French PM Lionel Jospin says his country will not lift the ban and threatens to take the EU to court for trying to force it to take British beef.

FEBRUARY 2000
The European Commission begins legal action against Germany for its failure to lift its ban.

MARCH 2000
Germany agrees to lift its ban but France maintains it will not. Legal action against Paris goes ahead.

DECEMBER 2001
The European Court of Justice says France, in continuing with its ban, is acting illegally.

SEPTEMBER 2002
France's food safety agency announces that it is at last in favour of lifting its ban on UK beef.

MAY 2004
UK meat production safeguards mean British beef is as safe as meat from anywhere else in Europe, the European Food Safety Authority declares.
The authority also predicts the BSE risk will fall from "high" to "moderate" by the end of the year.
The annual incidence of BSE has now fallen to less than 200 cases per 1 million adult cattle.
The epidemic peaked at an annual total of more than 37,000 clinical cases in 1992.

SEPTEMBER 2005
The European Commission confirms the "moderate risk" status of British beef - the same as in the rest of Europe.
It also announces a final thumbs up for British beef after anti-BSE controls on farms and slaughterhouses in the UK are inspected.
Formal talks can now begin with EU governments on a road map for lifting the beef ban completely, the Commission says.

MARCH 2006
The worldwide ban on British beef exports is lifted by the EU almost exactly 10 years since it was imposed.
Veterinary experts vote to allow the UK to export live animals born on or after 1 August 1996, and beef and products from cattle slaughtered after 15 June 2005.
This brings the UK back into line with other EU countries.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4785610.stm

Thanks for going to all the trouble. I'd already read it.

As you see, our friends and neighbours in a number of EU countries ignored the fact that the meat had been cleared safe for some years.
 
Peter Jukes
@peterjukes

On the day before Johnson’s victory was announced, according to the Channel 4 documentary The Tories at War, (Billionaire Hedge Fund Backer) Odey appeared to be advocating the subsequent decision by the Prime Minister to prorogue Parliament

That Odey had such a strong interest and apparent knowledge of the actions of the prime minister, including a desire to prorogue Parliament a month before it happened, raises a question of acute public interest: how involved – and how influential – are the rich backers of the PM?
https://twitter.com/peterjukes/status/1176052720966524928

Taken by fools, are we not?

I do hope Led by Donkeys pick up on this.
 
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