Ukraine

[ks.234]

thats a very well written article. The guy should write a book

Not so sure. Just as Putin has tried to paint the Ukraine as an homogenous region that is Russian is nonsense, so is painting the Ukraine as a homogenous region united against Russia.

 

[TheDecameron]

I’m more used hearing Nigel Farage spread culpability elsewhere for Putin’s actions. He also acted as Trump’s cheerleader in Britain while Trump attacked the integrity of NATO, the European Union, attempted to blackmail the Ukrainian President by withholding defence support and expressed open admiration for Vladimir Putin.

When this is over, there has to be a full investigation into the links between Farage, Johnson and the Conservative Party and Russian influence. The utter lack of judgement seems astonishing in a serving U.K. Foreign Secretary who would travel in just the suit he was wearing, to a bunga bunga party run by ex-KGB Russians. What’s more astonishing is that he is now the British Prime Minister.

 

[eternumviti]

If we're starting a blame game for the problems with Putin's Russia, we should start much closer to home with the UK government's enabling of Putin's power base through providing opportunities for Russian oligarchs' money-laundering and offshoring ill-gotten gains. If we hadn't done that, Putin would not have had such an easy task digging himself such an entrenched power base, and no amount of EU and NATO permissiveness and provocation would have had an effect if Putin were not in such an unassailable domestic position.

The Russia report, as curtailed as it is, still suggests that the UK is at least as complicate as anyone else, and the Tory government itself even more so.

Yes, we know that the UK, and the tories, are complicit it this utter disaster. It has been discussed exhaustively on this and just about every other politics thread on pfm for years. I would once again add to it that the tories are almost entirely responsible for the running down of our armed forces, thus neglecting the first duty of government, which is to ensure our security.

These are the reasons why the letters 'U' and 'K' appear, loud and clear, in the post to which you are both responding.

 

[cooky1257]

Still to read a better assessment than this : https://prospect.org/world/worse-than-a-crime-its-a-blunder-russia-ukraine-lieven-interview/

 

[Jim Audiomisc]

In some important psychological and political ways they already are. And they're wealthy long standing EU members. It may not be a defensive alliance but there's no way Putin would seriously contemplate pre-emptively invading Finland or Sweden, however happy he might be to imply otherwise.

His track record makes me think you are mistaken. What we are seeing is salami-slicing. By someone who sees his ticket to stay in power being his ability to "achieve successes" against "enemies" in the "west" to distract the Russian people from their internal problems.

He will continue to push until that breaks. His mental state will be that he *must* remain in power, or be eliminated by his *own* people. And to stay in power he must keep going. His axiom is that weakness is fatal - for others OR for him. Thus he must gain one 'success' after another, or be 'weak'. And is also determined to punish the 'west' for the damage done to Russia during the collapse of the old USSR.

You only have to see the paranoia in the way he keeps a long distance even from his *own* flunkies, etc.

 

[Jim Audiomisc]

and Jim, it’s not The Ukraine. It’s Ukraine.

Apologies. noted.

 

[TheDecameron]

Only up to a point, it seems to me. Everyone has assumed that Putin, no matter what his imperial pretensions, was a rational actor and could be counted upon to come right up to the brink, but not actually fall over. He has proved everyone wrong - this is an act of sheer lunacy. In one fell swoop, he has reinforced both the Ukranian sense of nationhood and NATO's solidarity, the two things he was apparently seeking to undermine. It even has Finland and Sweden contemplating membership. Meanwhile, the rouble disappears even further into the basement. The guy has egg all over his face. He has gone out on a limb and is blindly sawing through it.

The west needs to punish him severely - but it also needs to provide a way for him to climb down before the limb is completely sawn through. Otherwise, he might become even more desperate. Richard Nixon was, I think, the first to use the "madman" theory of international relations, i.e. to give opponents the impression that he might be sufficiently bananas to unleash nuclear Armageddon. Putin is now utilising the same language. The worry is that he really is sufficiently bananas to follow through with at least tactical nuclear strikes, e.g. on a Ukranian city pour encourager les autres, as Voltaire famously put it.

I was surprised at his negotiating tactics if you could call it negotiating . Instead of laying out his pressing issues for a negotiation, he went to the top of his threat ladder straight off- ‘give me what I want, give it to me immediately or I will take what I want with violence’. The truly frightening thing is that I don’t think it’s a bluff, I believe they’ve already agreed internally to proceed and the best hope is the Ides of March is approaching for him in Moscow or wherever his command bunker is.

 

[Jim Audiomisc]

Like all politicians that hold office that long, Merkel has had her share of howlers. The decision to pull the plug on nuclear in an emotional response to Fukushima and to curry favour with the green component of German public opinion was a corker, and ISTR many people here said so at the time (incl. one poster in Japan).

Speaking of bad energy decisions, the Tories deciding to entrust the construction of Britain's future nuclear power stations to the private sector is not looking so brilliant these days, either. It doesn't even meet the minimal threshold of "mercantile self interest". I mean, some of these things are going to end up owned by a nationalized French company collecting preferential electricity prices... and how do you feel about Cameron's decision to respectfully ask the Chinese to build Bradwell B?

Sadly, the reality is that expecting fission to fill the gap is no more than a boondoggle for the companies that make loadsamoney from building stations too slowly, too flawed, too late, leaving the legacy for our grandchildren to clear up. It just creates more problems than it fixes. Having people bid on a 'commercial' basis simply means they fid about the costs and time, then you get stuck with your arm in the (expensive) cookie jar later on. It may 'work' in a command economy who ignore the consequences in their rush but is an interim solution that generates future problems we can't solve despite decades of trying.

 

[ks.234]

Politico explainer (one day old) on how the financial sanctions will work.
https://www.politico.eu/article/west-targets-russias-defenses-against-ruble-crash-bank-run/
Based on what is happening to the ruble this morning (>20% down in a couple of hours), it seems accurate.
Interesting that Russia's reserves (June numbers) had a higher euro component (>1/3) than dollar (< 1/6), that the total FX reserves at risk are >60% of the total, and that even the 130 billion in gold is problematic (who to sell it to, and how to get it there?).

That article seeks to contribute to a western view of Russian financial collapse, which is laudable but the article does t quite add up.

It says that “‘if’ there are Russian central bank deposits at the Bundesbank, they are frozen now,".It seems that the assets of Putin himself and one or two cronies have been frozen, but in a wider sense it is not clear that Russian foreign reserves held in different European accounts have been likewise frozen. If foreign reserves were frozen, how would European countries get paid for their exports to Russia and how would we cope with the disrupted flow of gas from Russia?

The article also repeats the same old platitude that “Russia can print more rubles, but that would spark runaway domestic inflation and an even sharper depreciation of the currency.”. The fact of the matter is that the only way printing more money would increase inflation would be if Putin printed the money and gave it away for free. But I doubt Putin will do that. He might print more to make it available at the ATM’s and reduce panic, but people would still not be able to take out more than they have in, so there is no extra money just floating around. If people started panic buying, that would cause shortages of resources and then inflation, but it is the shortage of resources that creates inflation not the printing of money.

Countries do not print very much money anyway, money is created by keystrokes. If the rouble falls on the international markets, typing a few more keystrokes to make up the difference will not of itself cause shortages. If we want to cause real economic problems we would need to create real resource shortages, but as discussed, that would cause shortages for ourselves.

The fact is that become so entwined with Russian money by means legitimate and highly nefarious, that direct economic action will have serious consequences that I doubt our government has the stomach for

 

[ks.234]

Yes, we know that the UK, and the tories, are complicit it this utter disaster. It has been discussed exhaustively on this and just about every other politics thread on pfm for years. I would once again add to it that the tories are almost entirely responsible for the running down of our armed forces, thus neglecting the first duty of government, which is to ensure our security.

These are the reasons why the letters 'U' and 'K' appear, loud and clear, in the post to which you are both responding.

Fair enough, though in the post I responded didn’t contain the letters ‘U’ and ‘K’ and while I see them in a later post they appear in brackets suggesting a certain separation from European culprits. If anything I feel the culpability of the Tory Party needs to come first and foremost, not bracketed away as an afterthought

 

[PsB]

Sadly, the reality is that expecting fission to fill the gap is no more than a boondoggle for the companies that make loadsamoney from building stations too slowly, too flawed, too late, leaving the legacy for our grandchildren to clear up. It just creates more problems than it fixes. Having people bid on a 'commercial' basis simply means they fid about the costs and time, then you get stuck with your arm in the (expensive) cookie jar later on. It may 'work' in a command economy who ignore the consequences in their rush but is an interim solution that generates future problems we can't solve despite decades of trying.

It is clear that we have to use other short to medium term solutions to reduce our dependency on fossil fuels:
- save energy (improve insulation, reduce waste and unnecessary travel, etc.)
- renewable energy: hydro, wind, solar, tidal, geothermal to generate electricity or hot water
- nuclear (fission for the time being, fusion if and when possible) to supplement renewables and provide base load capabilities
- heat pumps to use electricity more efficiently for heating purposes
Doing all this helps to reduce our impact on the planet. As a fringe benefit, it reduces our need to suck up to dubious regimes around the world.

 

[messengerman]

His track record makes me think you are mistaken. What we are seeing is salami-slicing. By someone who sees his ticket to stay in power being his ability to "achieve successes" against "enemies" in the "west" to distract the Russian people from their internal problems.

He will continue to push until that breaks. His mental state will be that he *must* remain in power, or be eliminated by his *own* people. And to stay in power he must keep going. His axiom is that weakness is fatal - for others OR for him. Thus he must gain one 'success' after another, or be 'weak'. And is also determined to punish the 'west' for the damage done to Russia during the collapse of the old USSR.

You only have to see the paranoia in the way he keeps a long distance even from his *own* flunkies, etc.

The path you describe is surely already broken. His invasion appears very far from a "success". Besides he almost certainly doesn't have the troops, equipment or money he'd need to open a second front on any part of Western Europe.

The negotiations will shed light on to what extent (if any yet) Putin feels he needs an alternative way out. I still think (though this may be wishful thinking) that he is more coldly rational than he is currently being painted. Raising the stakes by, say, invading Finland, would be the kind of insane and idiotic thing a Trump would demand but I'm yet to be convinced Putin is that reckless and that stupid.

 

[eternumviti]

Fair enough, though in the post I responded didn’t contain the letters ‘U’ and ‘K’ and while I see them in a later post they appear in brackets suggesting a certain separation from European culprits. If anything I feel the culpability of the Tory Party needs to come first and foremost, not bracketed away as an afterthought

Ah, my apologies. Thoughout the vast majority of the relevant period, the UK was a member of the EU, and it remains one of NATO.

 

[eternumviti]

The path you describe is surely already broken. His invasion appears very far from a "success". Besides he almost certainly doesn't have the troops, equipment or money he'd need to open a second front on any part of Western Europe.

The negotiations will shed light on to what extent (if any yet) Putin feels he needs an alternative way out. I still think (though this may be wishful thinking) that he is more coldly rational than he is currently being painted. Raising the stakes by, say, invading Finland, would be the kind of insane and idiotic thing a Trump would demand but I'm yet to be convinced Putin is that reckless and that stupid.

I used to try to convince myself of something similar about my ex-wife. I have learned through long experience that the best thing to do is prepare for the very worst outcome, because that will be where it goes.

 

[ks.234]

Ah, my apologies. Thoughout the vast majority of the relevant period, the UK was a member of the EU, and it remains one of NATO.

Agreed. As you know I am becoming more eurosceptic the more I learn about the economic smoke and mirrors that they and just about every other economy deploys to fulfil an anti democratic agenda. But when it comes to sticking noses up Putin’s bottom (behind closed doors to save too many blushes) for personal and political gain, our Tory Government deserves a special mention

 

[Weekender]

From cheese to the end of the world:

Now, the Kremlin has suggested comments from Foreign Secretary Liz Truss were the reason that Russia put its nuclear forces on heightened alert, according to the Russian news agency Interfax.

"There had been statements by various representatives at various levels about possible conflict situations and even collisions and clashes between Nato and the Russian Federation," said Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for Vladimir Putin.

"We consider such statements absolutely unacceptable. I will not name the authors of these statements, although it was the British foreign secretary."

It's not clear which comments by Truss the Russian government objects to, although on Sunday she said she said she would support individuals from the UK joining an international force to fight for Ukraine.

 

[cooky1257]

From cheese to the end of the world:

Now, the Kremlin has suggested comments from Foreign Secretary Liz Truss were the reason that Russia put its nuclear forces on heightened alert, according to the Russian news agency Interfax.

"There had been statements by various representatives at various levels about possible conflict situations and even collisions and clashes between Nato and the Russian Federation," said Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for Vladimir Putin.

"We consider such statements absolutely unacceptable. I will not name the authors of these statements, although it was the British foreign secretary."

It's not clear which comments by Truss the Russian government objects to, although on Sunday she said she said she would support individuals from the UK joining an international force to fight for Ukraine.

Beat me to it.
These times call for cool heads and very very carefully chosen words, I have little confidence these no talent buffoons we have running the country are capable of either.
Eg loading mobile missile launchers with nuclear warheads is not a f*****g 'distraction'.

 

[PsB]

That article seeks to contribute to a western view of Russian financial collapse, which is laudable but the article does t quite add up.

It says that “‘if’ there are Russian central bank deposits at the Bundesbank, they are frozen now,".It seems that the assets of Putin himself and one or two cronies have been frozen, but in a wider sense it is not clear that Russian foreign reserves held in different European accounts have been likewise frozen. If foreign reserves were frozen, how would European countries get paid for their exports to Russia and how would we cope with the disrupted flow of gas from Russia?

The article was pointing out what was likely to happen this morning, and to explain why the sanctions agreed were a significant problem for Russia. It doesn't seem too wide of the mark.
Freezing the assets of some of Putin's cronies is not the main point. Russian central bank holdings in the foreign currencies of the EU, US, Canada, Japan are no longer accessible. The question of how Gazprom gets paid by a European buyer is a slightly different one, which is why the SWIFT sanctions leave out certain Russian banks for the time being.

The article also repeats the same old platitude that “Russia can print more rubles, but that would spark runaway domestic inflation and an even sharper depreciation of the currency.”. The fact of the matter is that the only way printing more money would increase inflation would be if Putin printed the money and gave it away for free. But I doubt Putin will do that. He might print more to make it available at the ATM’s and reduce panic, but people would still not be able to take out more than they have in, so there is no extra money just floating around. If people started panic buying, that would cause shortages of resources and then inflation, but it is the shortage of resources that creates inflation not the printing of money.

Yes, I thought you would like that one.

Countries do not print very much money anyway, money is created by keystrokes. If the rouble falls on the international markets, typing a few more keystrokes to make up the difference will not of itself cause shortages. If we want to cause real economic problems we would need to create real resource shortages, but as discussed, that would cause shortages for ourselves.

Not sure what difference you are trying to make up, but Putin can obv. create as many rubles as he likes: he controls the central bank of a largish economy with plenty of resources and is not afraid of issuing orders. Should be perfect conditions from an MMT perspective.

So far today, and for whatever reason, interest rates have been doubled to 20%, the stock exchange is closed and the currency is 20% down from last week. For the foreseeable future, you are going to have more people than before trying to sell RUB to get other currencies. Add all the Western companies bailing out of Russian assets (shares in Russian companies, sold by e.g. BP or the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, etc.), leasing companies trying to recover assets that are now under embargo (e.g. commercial aircraft) and it all adds up to a significant mess for everyone, with the smaller side of the equation (Russia) likely to suffer the most.

The fact is that become so entwined with Russian money by means legitimate and highly nefarious, that direct economic action will have serious consequences that I doubt our government has the stomach for

The measures are already in place IIUC. Let's see how they work out.

 

[Dinovector]

From cheese to the end of the world:

Now, the Kremlin has suggested comments from Foreign Secretary Liz Truss were the reason that Russia put its nuclear forces on heightened alert, according to the Russian news agency Interfax.

"There had been statements by various representatives at various levels about possible conflict situations and even collisions and clashes between Nato and the Russian Federation," said Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for Vladimir Putin.

"We consider such statements absolutely unacceptable. I will not name the authors of these statements, although it was the British foreign secretary."

It's not clear which comments by Truss the Russian government objects to, although on Sunday she said she said she would support individuals from the UK joining an international force to fight for Ukraine.

Got to hope the Russians don't read the front pages of western newspapers!

 

[Weekender]

Tbf if it was just down to a Lizgaff it can easly be resolved with a cheese ball gag. Roundel of something cheap.