advertisement


Ukraine V

FireMoon said:
The Russians upload every last piece of video they can, they've just been crowing about that Ukrainian tank driving into the river with video in the last 24 hours. In reality, the Russians actually upload the same video several times claiming it's from different locations thus, trying to up their figures. The recent disastrous foray by Ukrainian armour was uploaded 3 times and claimed to be at differing locations for instance. I don't know where you have the idea it's biased towards Ukraine, they were clear about the loss of 69 of the 129 odd Ukrainian air frames in the early days of the war when the Ukraine was keeping totally silent about it all.
Click to expand...
If you Google for this topic you can find some concerns online. This is not about propaganda pictures trying to pass off multiple pictures of the same equipment as separate cases, this is what Oryx is trying to sort out. It's that an Ukrainian loss is less likely to be posted online in general vs. a Russia loss.

https://warsawinstitute.org/comparing-western-supplies-ukrainian-losses-war-russia/
The data from Oryx is regarded as one of the most accurate sources, however, there are concerns that there is a pro-Ukrainian bias as there might be more photos published about Russian destroyed equipment
Click to expand...

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-...uipment-on-both-sides-who-is-winning-12561125
Firstly, this data is unlikely to be giving a true picture of events due to what Thomas Bullock, an open-source analyst at Janes, a defence intelligence company, calls "availability bias".

This bias arises from the fact that people are more likely to post images of destroyed Russian vehicles.

Mr Bullock told Sky News: "Open-source information is likely to be positively biased towards Ukraine, for a number of understandable reasons. Ukrainians don't want to post images of their forces in case it gives away their position.

"They are also more likely to post about Russian vehicles being destroyed as they are the enemy invading force. When we have seen posts of Ukrainian equipment it is often because people have mistaken it for being Russian."
Click to expand...
 
Just give it a rest, seriously, they are probably the most reliable source used by just about everyone. Furthermore, that is utter BS about the Russians they can't wait to post videos of stuff they've taken out to the extent., they claim the same incident happened 3-4 times. I've even seen all the Russian airframes that the Wagner shot down during the mutiny.

The biggest issue by far and Oryx say this themselves, is that the AFVs are often almost impossible to distinguish as to who owns what, particularly where there are areas that are under dispute for several days.
 
Chefren said:
Oryx is founded by two persons in 2013 already and has more people involved than just those two. They have also reported on more wars than just the war in Ukraine.

The data on Oryx is based on geolocated photos or videos of destroyed equipment and as such can be considered as the best available lowest end of destroyed, damaged or captured equipment. There will be some cases of bad data slipping through, caused by say a captured tank being used by the other side and then destroyed later being reported twice (once captured, once destroyed. This is still going to be less than then cases that are not reported. Not every destroyed piece of equipment will have a geolocatable photo of it uploaded online.

But it's been acknowledged that the data itself is biased, because Ukranians are more likely to upload photos or videos about Russian casualties than vice versa and therefore no matter how well the Oryx guys do their work, they cannot produce material where you can directly compare the losses of Russia vs. the losses of Ukraine. There will be a larger gap between their reported data and the reality for Ukraine than there is for Russia.

Here are the relevant two pages:
Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine - Oryx (oryxspioenkop.com)
Attack On Europe: Documenting Ukrainian Equipment Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine - Oryx (oryxspioenkop.com)
Click to expand...

Thank you for posting the links to Oryx. The scale of losses on both sides are staggering and the loss of life so sad really.
 
A very interesting article. Putin likes to see himself as a master chess player, but in reality is more like a kid playing tiddlywinks. He invaded Ukraine in the expectation of instant success, but instead it has blown up in his face. Instead of weakening NATO, it has strengthened it, and it has awakened the west to the manner of the person which they are facing - and to the fact that his apparently overwhelming military might is a sham. Repressive measures and relentless propaganda can keep the lid on things domestic - but for how long?

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russ...ntent=20230808&utm_term=promo-email-prospects
 
tones said:
A very interesting article. Putin likes to see himself as a master chess player, but in reality is more like a kid playing tiddlywinks. He invaded Ukraine in the expectation of instant success, but instead it has blown up in his face. Instead of weakening NATO, it has strengthened it, and it has awakened the west to the manner of the person which they are facing - and to the fact that his apparently overwhelming military might is a sham. Repressive measures and relentless propaganda can keep the lid on things domestic - but for how long?

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russ...ntent=20230808&utm_term=promo-email-prospects
Click to expand...

Yeabutt it’s mostly James Bakers fault and ours for invading Iraq too obvs.
 
FireMoon said:
Just give it a rest, seriously, they are probably the most reliable source used by just about everyone. Furthermore, that is utter BS about the Russians they can't wait to post videos of stuff they've taken out to the extent., they claim the same incident happened 3-4 times. I've even seen all the Russian airframes that the Wagner shot down during the mutiny.

The biggest issue by far and Oryx say this themselves, is that the AFVs are often almost impossible to distinguish as to who owns what, particularly where there are areas that are under dispute for several days.
Click to expand...

Do Oryx only use imagery posted by combatants or also civilian images?

Logically if most of the losses are taking place in occupied Ukrainian territory I can see how images of Russian losses would be shared on social media more widely than Ukrainian losses.

I don't think that takes anything away from the work of Oryx.
 
paulfromcamden said:
Do Oryx only use imagery posted by combatants or also civilian images?

Logically if most of the losses are taking place in occupied Ukrainian territory I can see how images of Russian losses would be shared on social media more widely than Ukrainian losses.

I don't think that takes anything away from the work of Oryx.
Click to expand...
Oryx just says "This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available.", I take that to mean they use any images or videos that they can geolocate and which are clear enough to make at least a decent attempt at identification.
 
paulfromcamden said:
Much as I want Ukraine to triumph I also can't get very excited about images of young conscripted men being killed and mutilated, used as canon fodder.

It seems this will drag on for years.
Click to expand...

It was actually a picture of a young Ukrainian pilot of one of their fighter aircraft that caught my eye. He must have been very intelligent to be flying an advanced jet. He was handsome and, going by the accompanying pictures, clearly loved by his wife and small child. The embodiment of sacrificing his today for their tomorrows.
 
Spraggons Den said:
Yeabutt it’s mostly James Bakers fault and ours for invading Iraq too obvs.
Click to expand...
Those certainly didn't help. The grounds for the US assault on Iraq were much smaller than Putin's justification for an assault of Ukraine, in that the former were totally, if you'll pardon the expression, trumped up, whereas Ukraine had once been a part of the USSR and has a historic resonance with Russia. What's sauce for the goose, etc.
 
tones said:
A very interesting article. Putin likes to see himself as a master chess player, but in reality is more like a kid playing tiddlywinks. He invaded Ukraine in the expectation of instant success, but instead it has blown up in his face. Instead of weakening NATO, it has strengthened it, and it has awakened the west to the manner of the person which they are facing - and to the fact that his apparently overwhelming military might is a sham. Repressive measures and relentless propaganda can keep the lid on things domestic - but for how long?

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russ...ntent=20230808&utm_term=promo-email-prospects
Click to expand...
The best analysis of Russia's situation following their invasion of Ukraine I've seen so far. Thanks for posting
 
Eventually, both sides are presumably going to have to realise this war will have no winner and draw up the peace terms https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/08/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-briefings/index.html

"The primary challenge for Ukrainian forces is the continued difficulty of breaking through Russia’s multi-layered defensive lines in the eastern and southern parts of the country, which are marked by tens of thousands of mines and vast networks of trenches. Ukrainian forces have incurred staggering losses there, leading Ukrainian commanders to hold back some units to regroup and reduce casualties.

“Russians have a number of defensive lines and they [Ukrainian forces] haven’t really gone through the first line,” said a senior Western diplomat. “Even if they would keep on fighting for the next several weeks, if they haven’t been able to make more breakthroughs throughout these last seven, eight weeks, what is the likelihood that they will suddenly, with more depleted forces, make them? Because the conditions are so hard”."
 
notaclue said:
Eventually, both sides are presumably going to have to realise this war will have no winner and draw up the peace terms https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/08/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-briefings/index.html

"The primary challenge for Ukrainian forces is the continued difficulty of breaking through Russia’s multi-layered defensive lines in the eastern and southern parts of the country, which are marked by tens of thousands of mines and vast networks of trenches. Ukrainian forces have incurred staggering losses there, leading Ukrainian commanders to hold back some units to regroup and reduce casualties.

“Russians have a number of defensive lines and they [Ukrainian forces] haven’t really gone through the first line,” said a senior Western diplomat. “Even if they would keep on fighting for the next several weeks, if they haven’t been able to make more breakthroughs throughout these last seven, eight weeks, what is the likelihood that they will suddenly, with more depleted forces, make them? Because the conditions are so hard”."
Click to expand...
There is a faction in the White House (Burns, Sullivan, etc al), who have been angling for a way to freeze the conflict, much to Russia's delight. They have complex reasons they don't discuss publicly.
 
tones said:
.. Ukraine had once been a part of the USSR and has a historic resonance with Russia ..
Click to expand...
Putin likes these historical connections, but only if he gets to pick the year when the situation was right. Crimea for example has been under Greek, Roman, partially Genoese, Mongol and Ottoman rule before Russia conquered it in the late 18-century.

Moscow has a historical resonance with Mongolia too, seeing it was a vassal of the Golden Horde for centuries. And before that, it was turned from an ancient settlement into a fortified town by a Grand Prince of Kievan Rus, a state with roots in trade posts set up by Swedish vikings. So.. I guess Sweden has a good claim too on Moscow from a historical perspective.

In the same vein, Denmark should get back everything the Normans ever conquered, possibly split 50/50 with Norway as no-one is really sure of where Rollo's family came from.

Looking back into history for justification on war loses believability after a generation or two and it just becomes a cover story for imperial or nationalistic aggression.
 
Last edited:
Chefren said:
Putin likes these historical connections, but only if he gets to pick the year when the situation was right. Crimea for example has been under Greek, Roman, partially Genoese, Mongol and Ottoman rule before Russia conquered it in the late 18-century.

Moscow has a historical resonance with Mongolia too, seeing it was a vassal of the Golden Horde for centuries. And before that, it was turned from an ancient settlement into a fortified town by a Grand Prince of Kievan Rus, a state with roots in trade posts set up by Swedish vikings. So.. I guess Sweden has a good claim too on Moscow from a historical perspective.

In the same vein, Denmark should get back everything the Normans ever conquered, possibly split 50/50 with Norway as no-one is really sure of where Rollo's family came from.

Looking back into history for justification on war loses believability after a generation or two and it just becomes a cover story for imperical or nationalistic aggression.
Click to expand...
Nicely put. Putin is clearly a fan of George Orwell (Ukraine is, always has been, and always will be part of, er, Watchamacallit).

Speaking of such things, a "Z-News" channel has just popped up on my computer. Clearly also a fan of Orwell.
 
Chefren said:
Putin likes these historical connections, but only if he gets to pick the year when the situation was right. Crimea for example has been under Greek, Roman, partially Genoese, Mongol and Ottoman rule before Russia conquered it in the late 18-century.

Moscow has a historical resonance with Mongolia too, seeing it was a vassal of the Golden Horde for centuries. And before that, it was turned from an ancient settlement into a fortified town by a Grand Prince of Kievan Rus, a state with roots in trade posts set up by Swedish vikings. So.. I guess Sweden has a good claim too on Moscow from a historical perspective.

In the same vein, Denmark should get back everything the Normans ever conquered, possibly split 50/50 with Norway as no-one is really sure of where Rollo's family came from.

Looking back into history for justification on war loses believability after a generation or two and it just becomes a cover story for imperical or nationalistic aggression.
Click to expand...

Doesn't Putin see Ukraine as Russia's Greece - a sort of genesis for Russian civilisation, values, glory, superiority, exceptionalism, etc?
 
Kirk said:
Doesn't Putin see Ukraine as Russia's Greece - a sort of genesis for Russian civilisation, values, glory, superiority, exceptionalism, etc?
Click to expand...

No. Putin follows the philosophy laid out in the book "Foundations of Geopolitics" and in that:

"Ukraine should be annexed by Russia because "Ukraine as a state has no geopolitical meaning, no particular cultural import or universal significance, no geographic uniqueness, no ethnic exclusiveness, its certain territorial ambitions represents an enormous danger for all of Eurasia and, without resolving the Ukrainian problem, it is in general senseless to speak about continental politics". Ukraine should not be allowed to remain independent, unless it is cordon sanitaire, which would be inadmissible according to Western political standards."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics
 
You must log in or register to reply here.


advertisement


Back
Top