Interview with Mark Hertling - cluster munitions, progress in the field, minefields, and air cover are among the topics covered.
https://www.patreon.com/posts/86478529
https://www.patreon.com/posts/86478529
Ukraine V
- Thread starter DimitryZ
- Start date
TheDecameron
Unicorns fart glitter.
Putin: “How can we negotiate peace when we are under attack?”
tones
Tones deaf
https://on.ft.com/3OzvFrB
This FT article argues that Putin wants a bigger war. Given the damage done to historic buildings in Odesa, it seems to me that he has given up the idea that he's going to own it, so he'll flatten it instead.
This FT article argues that Putin wants a bigger war. Given the damage done to historic buildings in Odesa, it seems to me that he has given up the idea that he's going to own it, so he'll flatten it instead.
DonQuixote99
pfm Member
How? How? Can't someone tell the man how? If only he knew!
TheDecameron
Unicorns fart glitter.
The prospect of him steadily destroying the fabric of Ukraine at his leisure , it’s factories, grain stores, ports etc. without redress is monstrous.
The Poles seems convinced that his proxy, the collective farm manager of Minsk will begin provocations at their border using Wagner mercenaries perhaps to feign asylum seeker crossings. I suspect he has limited room for manoeuvre and I wondered previously is he would initiate asymmetric attacks on European and US interests abroad via his old friend Prigozhin or his GRU goons like the ones who visited Salisbury.
NeilR
pfm Member
Only Ukraine should decide that. At the moment they are very motivated to try to push the Russians out, therefore we should be supporting them. If they decide in the future they want to make a peace deal, we should support them with that, too.
kensalriser
pfm Member
It also seems to me astonishingly naive in assuming that Putin would somehow be content with that. He wouldn't, save for as a holding position. His long history of military escapades tell us that unequivocally.
PsB
Citizen of Nowhere™
And what happens then? Eternal peace?
DonQuixote99
pfm Member
Just saw a George Orwell quote today that may be relevant: "The quickest way to end a war is to lose it."
Seeker_UK
Feelin' nearly faded as my jeans
I agree, if the Ukrainian People and Government wish to keep fighting, that is what they should do, and we should continue to support them.
BUT.
The counteroffensive hasn't retaken the ground that Kyiv in expected timescales; the roles of 2022 have reversed, it is Ukrainian forces that are now attacking heavily dug in forces and defenders always have an advantage. Despite Ukranian Government line that things haven't really started yet, other statements comments about things taking time are a hint that they themselves don't expect to gain all the lost ground back. Add to that Autumn / Winter is coming and that will slow down progress further, and a Russia who's industry is now on a war footing, money and munitions coming in despite the sanctions of the West and a growing army. It's setting the conditions for a very prolonged campaign that is going to see the front line move very slowly; progress to date has been modest (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ukrainian_counteroffensive#Timeframe_and_progression) with fresh forces with good morale and lots new kit. To replicate that over the entire red area, even with a regular influx of fresh troops and materiel is going to take years and unless something miraculous (or unimaginably awful) happens, national resolve will likely fail before pre-2014 borders are reached and IMHO will end up with a negotiated solution.
Even more so as the amount of wheat getting out to the world dwindles - and yes, I know that's exactly what the Russian's want to achieve and we shouldn't bow to that, but not every country in the World has the resilience we think we have to cope with rising prices and reducing availability.
Probably something akin to the N / S Korea, the occasional bit of military endowment waving, but not a hot war.
Allow me to turn the question back to you: how does Ukraine push Russia back to pre-2014 borders and prevent Putin from regrouping, rearming and having another pop?
There is, IMHO, no likely good outcome to this conflict.
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It is Ukraines choice to defend its sovereign territory and the rest of the world should give them full support to do this for as long as it takes. The situation was grim for western Europe after two years of WW2. Lives would of been saved if Europe capitulated to Hitler, but what sort of world would we be living in now?
Unfortunately I think the war will drag on for another couple of years but have no doubt that good will prevail over evil. Putin will either be killed or be in front of a tribunal in the Hague. I hope for the latter. Ultimately I would like to see his grave turned into a public urinal in Red square.
Unfortunately I think the war will drag on for another couple of years but have no doubt that good will prevail over evil. Putin will either be killed or be in front of a tribunal in the Hague. I hope for the latter. Ultimately I would like to see his grave turned into a public urinal in Red square.
DimitryZ
pfm Member
It is sad to see another defender wave a white flag.I agree, if the Ukrainian People and Government wish to keep fighting, that is what they should do, and we should continue to support them.
BUT.
The counteroffensive hasn't retaken the ground that Kyiv in expected timescales; the roles of 2022 have reversed, it is Ukrainian forces that are now attacking heavily dug in forces and defenders always have an advantage. Despite Ukranian Government line that things haven't really started yet, other statements comments about things taking time are a hint that they themselves don't expect to gain all the lost ground back. Add to that Autumn / Winter is coming and that will slow down progress further, and a Russia who's industry is now on a war footing, money and munitions coming in despite the sanctions of the West and a growing army. It's setting the conditions for a very prolonged campaign that is going to see the front line move very slowly; just look at the map of progress below, the purple areas are what's been taken in one month with fresh forces with good morale and lots new kit. To replicate that over the entire red area, even with a regular influx of fresh troops and materiel is going to take years and unless something miraculous (or unimaginably awful) happens, national resolve will likely fail before pre-2014 borders are reached and IMHO will end up with a negotiated solution.
Even more so as the amount of wheat getting out to the world dwindles - and yes, I know that's exactly what the Russian's want to achieve and we shouldn't bow to that, but not every country in the World has the resilience we think we have to cope with rising prices and reducing availability.
Probably something akin to the N / S Korea, the occasional bit of military endowment waving, but not a hot war.
Allow me to turn the question back to you: how does Ukraine push Russia back to pre-2014 borders and prevent Putin from regrouping, rearming and having another pop?
There is, IMHO, no likely good outcome to this conflict.
All it took is a month of fighting without an overwhelming Ukranian victory.
We are lucky that our parents and grandparents (of the great generation fame) had far stronger backbones.
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Seeker_UK
Feelin' nearly faded as my jeans
Asking questions and positing likely outcomes based on evidence (did you read the FT article that was linked to above) is not defending. Trust me, the one thing I am not is a "defender".
So, rather than your usual "Putin apologist" schtick, perhaps you could engage a little bit more and outline an alternative outcome - how does Ukraine secure victory and long-term freedom from Russian aggression and how long will it take? I am happy to accept that the outcome I posted above is not inviolable but what's an alternative path?
kensalriser
pfm Member
Something odd about that map. Isn't Kherson under Ukranian control?
Seeker_UK
Feelin' nearly faded as my jeans
Thanks for pointing that out. Although the site I pulled it from stated July 2023, looking at it again, I believe it's actually from 2022. It doesn't change my main point that progress is slow and before Winter kicks in and Ukrainian forces reach the heavily dug Russian defences.
I have amended my post accordingly.
One way is to join NATO and the EU; however, I'm not sure Putin will aggress in the long term. And what about his domestic standing? Will he be toppled, killed, or simply die? Obviously, new management could be worse but it's hard to see how.
