advertisement


Ukraine III

Status
Not open for further replies.
Seeker_UK said:
Thanks but that doesn't really add a lot of detail. What do you think a Ukraine win / Russian defeat will actually look like in this context?
Click to expand...
Ukraine will fight on aided by money and weapons from the west. It will become a war not unlike that fought in Afghanistan by Russia where they eventually lost.
The cost in lives will be terrible but in the end Russia will not be able to sustain it's war. In this context they can 'win', will they choose to do so or surrender part of their country to Russia, I don't know.
 
Gordon Brown and John Major back Nuremberg-style tribunal for Putin-
Haven’t seen any mention of this here. Great initiative but is there really any chance of Putin being brought to book let alone be convicted of anything? Russia already ignores the ICC as far as I know.
 
I found this Guardian article from today interesting.

The power of the new Ukraine (msn.com)

@DimitryZ - in my attempts to keep up with this thread I have appreciated your pragmatic, realistic and straightforward contributions.

I am (too) somewhat bemused at repeated calls for Zelensky to choose negotiations for peace as opposed to him (???) continuing the war. The ‘peace negotiations’ started on 28 Feb, with Russia simply demanding that Ukraine surrender. My albeit limited knowledge of the history informs me that if Ukraine does surrender, they will enter into a future of bleak ruthless oppression with no end in sight, entailing elimination of key state, professional, and cultural players, added to attempted eradication of national identity. Doubtless the Ukrainians realise this themselves.

As George J would say, just my two pence worth.
 
nicetone said:
I found this Guardian article from today interesting.

The power of the new Ukraine (msn.com)

@DimitryZ - in my attempts to keep up with this thread I have appreciated your pragmatic, realistic and straightforward contributions.

I am (too) somewhat bemused at repeated calls for Zelensky to choose negotiations for peace as opposed to him (???) continuing the war. The ‘peace negotiations’ started on 28 Feb, with Russia simply demanding that Ukraine surrender. My albeit limited knowledge of the history informs me that if Ukraine does surrender, they will enter into a future of bleak ruthless oppression with no end in sight, entailing elimination of key state, professional, and cultural players, added to attempted eradication of national identity. Doubtless the Ukrainians realise this themselves.

As George J would say, just my two pence worth.
Click to expand...
My earliest childhood memories of international affairs was of the crushing of Hungary by the Russians in 1956. It was down for a long time, but it came back. So, I believe, will Ukraine, in time, even if completely subjugated.

The post-uprising Hungarian Communist Party did at least take the hint - whereas pre-uprising, the AVO, the Hungarian secret police, were one of the most savage, they modified their behaviour, and the tendency to take dissidents down to a cellar to scream their lungs out was replaced by a polite invitation to a local cafe for a cup of coffee and a chat about unacceptable views. Any puppet government in the Ukraine with any sense will know that it is sitting on a time bomb and will need to navigate carefully the difficult shoals that the Russians have provided by this foolish invasion.
 
Seeker_UK said:
  • Ukraine will be allowed to join the EU but as a Neutral State and exmept from the EU's Common Security and Defence Policy.
Click to expand...


On what f*ckin basis, unless a sense of guilt is now an accepted argument to join EU?

There's at least 5-6 countries more deserving to become a EU member, at least judging on the usual EU joining criteria....
 
Bart said:
Gordon Brown and John Major back Nuremberg-style tribunal for Putin-
Haven’t seen any mention of this here. Great initiative but is there really any chance of Putin being brought to book let alone be convicted of anything? Russia already ignores the ICC as far as I know.
Click to expand...
Fine, so long as we get Iraq, Gaza, Yemen, Syria, Sri Lanka, maybe Libya? out of the way first. Otherwise it looks a bit biased.
 
anubisgrau said:
On what f*ckin basis, unless a sense of guilt is now an accepted argument to join EU?

There's at least 5-6 countries more deserving to become a EU member, at least judging on the usual EU joining criteria....
Click to expand...
If the West wants to help Ukraine it should cancel it debts to the IMF, rather than encouraging it to take out more debt as a consequence of joining the EU.
 
matthewr said:
I agree and can only re-up the suggestion to listen to Marsha Gessen and Julia Ioffe both of whom have a number of long form interviews both for PBS Frontline and others. Lots of raw interview footage going back years with deep background on Putin and Russia and how the west has often got it badly wrong in how it deals with him, etc. Although be warned that the more you learn about Putin the more depressed you will be about what is all likely to unfold in Ukraine in the coming weeks and months.

Some video links below and I strongly recommend investing the time into watching them as I suspect most people will emerge with a far greater understanding of both Putin and Russia.

Also if you do watch these videos this will train the algorithm and give you lots of other alternative sources of information as they have both given speeches and appeared on various panels, policy wonk debates over the years. There are also a load of policy outfits called things like International School of Strategic Studies which will start turning up and you'll get a lot of these if you want to listen to analysis of the politics and the military aspects of the conflict. Despite its terrible reputation, YouTube is actually great for getting access to raw information from the actual experts in various relevant fields without the filter of the media. (Although do remember to check exactly who you are watching with a bit of googling).





The other thing that has struck me is how much this has exposed our collective and individual ignorance of Eastern Europe and Eurasia. Unlike with the Islamic world I think there is a tendency to see the news from what are predominantly white, Christian countries and kind of assume these parts of world are much like us when in reality I think one needs to reset one's assumptions and check one's priors to avoid a very western framing of everything. So for example I read this yesterday which, while it's only one voice, made me stop and think : https://freedomnews.org.uk/2022/03/04/****-leftist-westplaining/

Finally on a broader note I would like to apologise to the thread for my part in any disturbance in the PFM force yesterday. I will try to do better.

Matthew
Click to expand...




Are you real you are recommending Julia Ioffe?

The woman is a plain racist, "one thing is to use sarin gas on muslims and another to european nation"

A classic product of the US anti Russian PR engineering machine, occasionally off the hook.

Here's her "Sarin is OK on muslims, but on Ukrainians?" take on CNN

 
This views are fully disqualifying here from having a right to have any relevant comment on anything.

Basically a troll, you can accept that there's no only Putin trolls in this world.
 
anubisgrau said:
Are you real you are recommending Julia Ioffe?

The woman is a plain racist, "one thing is to use sarin gas on muslims and another to european nation"

A classic product of the US anti Russian PR engineering machine, occasionally off the hook.

Here's her "Sarin is OK on muslims, but on Ukrainians?" take on CNN

Click to expand...
Never heard of her and I hadn’t bothered playing any of the clips linked earlier until your post and complaint.

She isn’t saying it is fine to gas muslims or anyone else. Quite the opposite. Which bit is where you think she says it is?
 
anubisgrau said:
On what f*ckin basis, unless a sense of guilt is now an accepted argument to join EU?

There's at least 5-6 countries more deserving to become a EU member, at least judging on the usual EU joining criteria....
Click to expand...

Things are already in train. Ukraine:
  • Has an agreement in place with the EU under the Ukraine–European Union Association Agreement.
  • Is part of a free trade area with the EU (the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area).
  • Is a priority partner within the Eastern Partnership and the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP)
  • Has it written in their Constitution that they wish to join the EU.
And above all, on 22nd February 2022, President Zelenskyy signed and submitted a formal application to join.

So on that f*ckin' basis and, I think that it might happen.

Out of interest, I think that sovereign nations have the right to choose their own path. Don't you?


ks.234 said:
If the West wants to help Ukraine it should cancel it debts to the IMF, rather than encouraging it to take out more debt as a consequence of joining the EU.
Click to expand...

They're not mutually exclusive.
 
flatpopely said:
Ukraine will fight on aided by money and weapons from the west. It will become a war not unlike that fought in Afghanistan by Russia where they eventually lost.
The cost in lives will be terrible but in the end Russia will not be able to sustain it's war. In this context they can 'win', will they choose to do so or surrender part of their country to Russia, I don't know.
Click to expand...
Hmm, Afghanistan, 9years of war, a country bombed back to the Stone Age, between 600,000 and 2 million dead and practically a failed state ever since. Yeah sounds like a win.
 
Seeker_UK said:
Thing's are already in train. Ukraine:
  • Has an agreement in place with the EU under the Ukraine–European Union Association Agreement.
  • Is part of a free trade area with the EU (the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area).
  • Is a priority partner within the Eastern Partnership and the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP)
  • Has it written in their Constitution that they wish to join the EU.
And above all, on 22nd February 2022, President Zelenskyy signed and submitted a formal application to join.

So on that f*ckin' basis and, I think that it might happen.

Out of interest, I think that sovereign nations have the right to choose their own path. Don't you?
Click to expand...

Of course I do, but normally the candidates are not the ones who decide if they are going to be accepted, but Bruxeless.

Almost every Western Balkan country has a way superior results (economy, human rights), the similar agreements signed far earlier, some are a NATO member already and suddenly, voila - Ukraine is surpassing them on basis of f*ckin' wot? Putin?

EU is a joke, if anything leavers were spot on!
 
Brian said:
Never heard of her and I hadn’t bothered playing any of the clips linked earlier until your post and complaint.

She isn’t saying it is fine to gas muslims or anyone else. Quite the opposite. Which bit is where you think she says it is?
Click to expand...

"It's one thing to use sarin gas on people in faraway Syria who are muslim and different culture, and completely different on... European soil and on Europeans...."

I assume you agree with that?
 
Seeker_UK said:
Things are already in train. Ukraine:
  • Has an agreement in place with the EU under the Ukraine–European Union Association Agreement.
  • Is part of a free trade area with the EU (the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area).
  • Is a priority partner within the Eastern Partnership and the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP)
  • Has it written in their Constitution that they wish to join the EU.
And above all, on 22nd February 2022, President Zelenskyy signed and submitted a formal application to join.

So on that f*ckin' basis and, I think that it might happen.

Out of interest, I think that sovereign nations have the right to choose their own path. Don't you?




They're not mutually exclusive.
Click to expand...
Maybe not. However Ukraine will need money and if the price of that is austerity and having to export goods for dollars as usually happens with the IMF, then Ukraine could find itself in economic difficulties, similar with joining the EU; having to sign up to debt to GDP ratios and budget ceilings might curtail Ukrainian ability to invest in restructuring.

It may not happen of course, but joining the EU might not be the panacea some imagine.
 
anubisgrau said:
Of course I do, but normally the candidates are not the ones who decide if they are going to be accepted, but Bruxeless.

Almost every Western Balkan country has a way superior results (economy, human rights), the similar agreements signed far earlier, some are a NATO member already and suddenly, voila - Ukraine is surpassing them on basis of f*ckin' wot? Putin?

EU is a joke, if anything leavers were spot on!
Click to expand...
You sound grumpy about something.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.


advertisement


Back
Top