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Stock Market 2022

Discussion in 'off topic' started by Ponty, Jan 6, 2022.

  1. Guinnless

    Guinnless pfm Member

    If there are are any creatures left by then. :(
     
  2. matt j

    matt j pfm Member

    S&P500 closes worst first half of year since 1970, at -21%.
     
  3. Dozey

    Dozey Air guitar member

    Yet I am still well up on a couple of years ago.
     
  4. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    And I think Apple has more to fall which won't help S&P. How's Apple going to keep getting gear from China as manufacturing is throttled.
     
  5. Kirk

    Kirk pfm Member

    More downside to come.
     
  6. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    I still think there will be a reversal in the Fed after summer so picking off a few things on the way down.....
     
  7. matt j

    matt j pfm Member

    Some late real estate panic sellers trying to cash in? This is a small slice of LA

    [​IMG]
     
  8. sean99

    sean99 pfm Member

    Definitely missed the peak - take a look at the 30yr mortgage rate chart. Looking at my (expensive) town it seems there are still sellers in denial, determined to stay on the market through the summer chasing prices down. In this town if it doesn't sell within 2 weeks it's overpriced.

    [​IMG]
    Source https://themortgagereports.com/61853/30-year-mortgage-rates-chart
     
  9. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    ^^^ The rate of change in mortgage rates is the fastest ever in 50 years.

    Remember in 2020 when all the chat was
    about NEGATIVE interest rates...That, combined with Stamp Duty holiday, was rocket fuel. We never learn...
     
    Snufkin and andrew d like this.
  10. Ponty

    Ponty pfm Member

    Yet there are some folk who don’t agree that house prices are inversely proportional to interest rates.
    I do think rates will plummet again at, or probably before, the earliest opportunity. There could also be more stamp duty holidays, re-introduction of MIRAS, longer term / generational mortgages. Plenty of levers yet to pull.
     
  11. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    Yes, I've seen that said by many in power too. It's an easy thing to say for decades when the theory hasn't been properly tested...but its about to be...even just for say 6 months
     
  12. Ponty

    Ponty pfm Member

    It will be interesting to see what the banks do in terms of mortgage down valuing. That could scupper many sales. I agreed a sale (and purchase) in November, which I think was about peak. I sense the property I sold (right out in the sticks) could be a more tricky sell now. Back to the office, rising fuel costs, high maintenance etc, there will just be fewer people who want that type of thing. I didn’t think I’d be able to swap my old place for the geographical area I’m in now without extra cash. The market may have already tipped sufficiently to make that unlikely now, just 8 months on.
     
  13. paulfromcamden

    paulfromcamden Baffled

    I saw No.10 were touting this yesterday. I'm not sure the answer to future generations being able to buy their own home is making them pay off their parent's home first.

    The Guardian article references Japan's 100 year mortgages. A few observations:

    1. These were introduced in 1990 just before the bubble burst. Prices have taken 30 years to recover.

    [​IMG]

    2. 100 years mortgages became a vehicle for the rich to avoid inheritance tax:

    Such deals represent sound fiscal planning for some families, especially the very wealthy living in Tokyo who, perversely, can almost not afford to inherit a house: Japan's graduated inheritance tax can take up to 70% of a family's assets, including its home. Under the 100-year loan plan, a second generation can move into a deceased parent's home and pay inheritance taxes on only a fraction of the house's value.
    https://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1990/05/21/73567/

    3. The Japanese property market is dissimilar to the UK. Japanese residential buildings have a short lifespan. The average age of an apartment is 33 years. New property initially depreciates in value - everyone wants brand new (our Tokyo apartment rent was relatively cheap because it was in an 'old' building - it was ten years old).

    One thing that is similar to the UK is a glut of properties where no one wants to live - 8.5 million vacant homes in 2018 with the prediction that a third of all homes in Japan will be vacant in a decade. Unwanted houses in rural areas can be had for £20k.
     
  14. Kirk

    Kirk pfm Member

    Because inflation will fall?
     
  15. Kirk

    Kirk pfm Member

    Is there a graph that overlays house prices?
     
  16. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    Never say never ...nothing's certain the next few years.
     
  17. Kirk

    Kirk pfm Member

    Why do you think the Fed will reverse after the summer?
     
  18. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    No particular reason. I've basically decided that doing the exact opposite of what everyone else is thinking/doing seems to work in these volatile times.
     
    matt j and Kirk like this.
  19. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    You can already see energy prices, oil in particular, falling. That's the sort of shock to the demand side of the equation they wanted... They will use anything they can to soften their stance on the rate of future interest rates rises and maybe a slight reversal.
     
  20. Kirk

    Kirk pfm Member

    It's impossible to tell at the moment IMO - too many cogs. I think the slight fall in energy prices though is a bit of a false dawn mixed in with some market hopium: structural oil/gas supply problems aren't going to disappear by the end of the summer, and the Saudis don't want to upend their cash flows. To quote the Saudi minister of energy, “the world is running out of energy capacity at all levels.”
     

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