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Stock Market 2022

NeilR said:
I think she is right about deflation in the medium to long term. Not now, obviously.
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NeilR said:
medium term = 5 years
Think about the effects automation and AI are going to have regarding efficiency gains and the need to employ workers. there is only going to be one outcome IMO.
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My future forecasting is terrible, but my thoughts are we'd see deflation in stuff we don't need (phones, TVs, computers) and inflation in stuff we do need (food, energy, housing).
The future looks like America - sh*t you don't need is cheap. Stuff you need (food, energy, housing, education, healthcare) is very expensive.
 
andyoz said:
Unilever seem to have shaken off their little blip (for now).
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Not so sure, as the GSK debacle has put the skids under Jope from big investors. The sale of Ben & Jerry's is the latest, though why that when it seems to complement the existing ice cream range (Magnum, etc.) I know not.

I'd also like to top up and missed the low boat, assuming that was the buying opportunity with hindsight. Lovely quarterly divi and Unilever is surely too big to fail. I'll wait, as these are volatile FTSE times anyway, let alone Unilever's over the top green marketing approach.

The thought of a potential rights issue in the GSK bid worried me. Happy to enhance my holding this way if the issue is for a worthwhile reason but not when the CEO has delusions of grandeur.
 
I use Unilever stuff every day which is one of my stock picking 'tests'.
Same with BT and I'm actually going to newly opened Cineworld place on the weekend to see a film in one of their 4DX screens (it's a long way from me to).

I even take the odd Easyjet flight.

I hold them all.
 
sean99 said:
My future forecasting is terrible, but my thoughts are we'd see deflation in stuff we don't need (phones, TVs, computers) and inflation in stuff we do need (food, energy, housing).
The future looks like America - sh*t you don't need is cheap. Stuff you need (food, energy, housing, education, healthcare) is very expensive.
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Interesting, made me wonder if that’s because investment money tends to go disproportionately into the highly lucrative, scalable businesses that are neither capital nor labour intensive.

Why should developers bother going to all the expense of building a house if they can sell virtual ones in the metaverse at higher margins? Why build a theatre and pay actors if you can entertain people with online betting?

But finally the result comes that people actually need real physical houses, and if the whole physical infrastructure has been underinvested in and is now under supplied, it’s inevitable that the price of these things increases.
 
Heckyman said:
Good chance to sell into strength if you think we entered a bear market back in November. Or if you think last week was the bottom, party on!
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But even if interest rates go up a percent or two the days of me getting even say 2% on cash deposits are gone for a good while. So I can't see me turning my back on a dividend of for a while even if it is more 'risky' (that relates more to Unilever etc).

In the long term, I think 'tech' still has legs. I think (hope!) a decent enough adjustment is already priced in. I've only got about 5% combined in these trusts.
 
I’m in the “another leg down” camp (or at least I’d like to see a period of sideways consolidation), but might well be wrong. Tesla overweighting bothers me in some of the funds.
 
Heckyman said:
I’m in the “another leg down” camp (or at least I’d like to see a period of sideways consolidation), but might well be wrong. Tesla overweighting bothers me in some of the funds.
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Yes, but I've got money on the sidelines if that happens. I'm sick of waiting around for the market to act rationally.

I'm spreading my bets around...property, stocks, cash...even Crypto!
 
Multi billion market cap companies currently moving up and down with 25%+ daily in the equity markets. And they call crypto “too volatile” lol
 
Heckyman said:
I’m in the “another leg down” camp (or at least I’d like to see a period of sideways consolidation), but might well be wrong. Tesla overweighting bothers me in some of the funds.
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me too, I didn’t buy anything earlier this week. I would like to see a sustained sideways movement before committing any new money.

There is still Ukraine to consider too.
 
paulfromcamden said:
I thought the advice was generally to max out the ISA allowance then put anything left in the SIPP.

Income tax is payable on money withdrawn from a SIPP (plus there's the lifetime allowance).
An ISA is largely tax free, has no cap and can be accessed at any time.
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Hi Paul, I watched this recently, it may help
 
I saw a Tweet from a financial advisor about a US couple who had invested 80% in Tesla. They told him, “we’re happy with that decision, we just need advice on the other 20%”.
 
Heckyman said:
I saw a Tweet from a financial advisor about a US couple who had invested 80% in Tesla. They told him, “we’re happy with that decision, we just need advice on the other 20%”.
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I can totally believe that. There's a load of buyers out there that think getting it at slightly less than $900 is 'cheap'. You keep seeing it bounce off that level.

Maybe they're right...I don't think so...I don't even think Elon thinks so. It's a religion.
 
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GBP/EUR has fallen after ECB's hawkish pivot* yesterday afternoon.

* - Investors are now pricing in expectations that the ECB will raise its deposit rate from minus 0.5 per cent at present to almost zero by the end of the year
 
matt j said:
Multi billion market cap companies currently moving up and down with 25%+ daily in the equity markets. And they call crypto “too volatile” lol
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Social media based companies don't have a real product any more than crypto does.
Their only real asset is their userbase and that can vanish very fast
 
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