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Post-Trump: III (decline, further tantrums, legal proceedings, book deals etc)

Trump has spent a lifetime of coming out smelling like a rose whilst leaving his creditors holding the bag, it's his superpower. I don't see that changing, as much as we'd all love to see it finally catch up to him.
 
Yank said:
Trump has spent a lifetime of coming out smelling like a rose whilst leaving his creditors holding the bag, it's his superpower. I don't see that changing, as much as we'd all love to see it finally catch up to him.
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I think what it suggests is that none of the bond companies thinks he can win his appeal, so losing the bond is a dead cert. So they’re not interested.
 
I can’t find the link (I can never find anything on Twitter again once I’ve scrolled past it), but someone (on the Republican side of the house IIRC) is pointing out this makes Trump even more of national security risk as not only do foreign powers know Trump is for sale, they now know exactly how much he costs. Seth Abramson (linked upthread) has already apparently found links to dubious Russian money in the E Jean Carrol bond, it is pretty much a given Trump will be in debt to more Russians, Saudis, Chinese or whoever before long.
 
Tony L said:
I can’t find the link (I can never find anything on Twitter again once I’ve scrolled past it), but someone (on the Republican side of the house IIRC) is pointing out this makes Trump even more of national security risk as not only do foreign powers know Trump is for sale, they now know exactly how much he costs. Seth Abramson (linked upthread) has already apparently found links to dubious Russian money in the E Jean Carrol bond, it is pretty much a given Trump will be in debt to more Russians, Saudis, Chinese or whoever before long.
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He was bought years ago. It is just worth it to keep paying him as it sows complete chaos in the US political system.
 
Sue Pertwee-Tyr said:
I think what it suggests is that none of the bond companies thinks he can win his appeal, so losing the bond is a dead cert. So they’re not interested.
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It’s not a measure of faith, losing the appeal is not a consideration for the Bond provider. These arrangements are a straight loan contract between the two parties. They are not underwriting the risk of loss of the Bond.

The agreement is a loan of the money Trump (in this case) needs to allow an appeal. The re-payment of it is Trump’s problem win or lose, so presumably a large amount of interest has been guaranteed by him to the Bond provider and there will have been the signing over of some assets to that value.

The issue with this larger amount is again not a worry over him winning an appeal, it’s better than that. They don’t think he’s good for it. He will have to use his own assets directly, which I’m guessing he either doesn’t have - or wishes to remain hidden from scrutiny.
 
Say Trump ultimately defaults on his bond. The surety company must then pay the judgement, right? At which point Trump owes them, principle plus whatever. Does the surety company have to sue Trump to get it, or can they go right to judgement with the court ordering liquidation of assets?
 
DonQuixote99 said:
Say Trump ultimately defaults on his bond. The surety company must then pay the judgement, right? At which point Trump owes them, principle plus whatever. Does the surety company have to sue Trump to get it, or can they go right to judgement with the court ordering liquidation of assets?
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Assuming the provider is legit, the company will already have what they need signed over to them. They don’t have to publish details. Of course if he’s being funded in ways that the “company" is merely a front, all bets are off. Should the provider be a foreign state (just say) they probably would regard the bond loss as sofa change in the quest to disrupt the US.
 
SteveS1 said:
Assuming the provider is legit, the company will already have what they need signed over to them. They don’t have to publish details. Of course if he’s being funded in ways that the “company" is merely a front, all bets are off. Should the provider be a foreign state (just say) they probably would regard the bond loss as sofa change in the quest to disrupt the US.
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Then one can assume at this point that Trump has not proffered sufficient assets to a surety company.
 
DonQuixote99 said:
Then one can assume at this point that Trump has not proffered sufficient assets to a surety company.
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Yes looks as if they are not liking what they are seeing, either in quantum or in terms of access to the funds.

No idea why years of Trump stiffing just about anyone he has ever employed, owed money to, or entered into partnership with didn’t have them running for the hills way before now.
 
Regarding the question of RFK's possible impact on the contest:
Arizona was second to Georgia as the tightest race in the nation in 2020. Biden prevailed by about one-third of a percentage point.

The president will struggle to replicate that performance this year, if the current polls are anything to go by.

An Emerson College poll for The Hill and Nexstar last month put Trump up by 3 points in a head-to-head match-up. Trump’s lead grew to 6 points when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was added as a choice.
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https://www.yahoo.com/news/7-battlegrounds-decide-wins-presidency-100000203.html emphasis added

Story contains more detail on the situation in seven battleground states. The analysis is based on polling data each time. But I would issue the caveat that polls are different than elections, and people respond differently to pollsters than they do in the voting booth, especially this far out.
 
kensalriser said:
This is all well and good but what are the actual consequences for Trump should he fail to divvy up or post the bond?
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Apart from what Don said re-his assets being seized, there is also further explosion of Trump mythology. The “Billionaire” one being first cab off the rank but there will be others, inflated valuations and details of who he owes money to become more likely to be uncovered. Then there is the small matter of Tax, which you can bet the house on not being in order and the IRS will have their jeweller’s eye-piece out.
 
SteveS1 said:
Assuming the provider is legit, the company will already have what they need signed over to them. They don’t have to publish details. Of course if he’s being funded in ways that the “company" is merely a front, all bets are off. Should the provider be a foreign state (just say) they probably would regard the bond loss as sofa change in the quest to disrupt the US.
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I'd say that's true with potential funders on the domestic side too. Less than 1/2 billion dollars to help break up many of the legislative and financial control systems in the country.

What the bond primarily does as far as I can see is yet further increase the risks to Trump should he lose - he has to go all-in effectively.
 
I’m pretty sure if Trump doesn’t win in November within a week he will jump on a plane to Brazil, Saudi, Russia…wherever doesn’t have an extradition treaty. He won’t run the risk of going to prison. From overseas he can complain to his cult how he was persecuted and the election stolen from him. Who would issue any sort of bond to a crook like Trump.
 
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