Oh Britain, what have you done (part ∞+21)?

[maxflinn]

Are the Tories likely to force a GE? Remember the old cliche about turkeys and Christmas.

Philip Hammond has said he'd consider supporting a no confidence motion in any Tory leader looking to leave with no deal.

But to move on to Ref2, are you saying that Labour will have taken up to a remain position by then and abandoned their manifesto pledge? Yippee! They could form an alliance with the Lib Dems and the Greens and do what they should have done years ago before the first EU ref. Sounds too sensible to me.

Their position is one of total opposition to a no deal Brexit, and any brexit that does not safeguard jobs and workers rights. As such, given the next Tory leader is likely to be at least open to the possibility of a no deal Brexit, or some kind of hard Brexit Labour will support a referendum on any Brexit he/she seeks to secure, with, AIUI, remaining the alternative option.

If, as I suspect the Tories get Farage on board so the Brexit Party doesn't split the hard Brexit vote in any GE, then only a Labour majority can guarantee the public getting their say on it.

Which would mean that remainers would have to vote tactically for Labour, rather than the Lib-Dems/Greens. Splitting the pro-2nd referendum vote would guarantee a Tory win, and a hard Brexit.

That's how I see it anyway.

 

[maxflinn]

As ever we need to assess the field and positions before making a tactical decision. I’ve said many times that if the UK does Brexit then I want the Tories (with or without Farage) in power to own it outright.

The last thing I want is that an inept Brexit-enabling bell-end like Corbyn gets thrust into the captain’s seat five minutes before hitting the iceberg and then taking the full blame for the economic disaster that is on its way. The Tories need to own the decline, the unemployment, the negative equity, the inflation, the riots etc etc. It is theirs and theirs alone. When this ship sinks they need to go down with it.

As such if Labour don’t start shouting from the rooftops to actually *stop* Brexit they are not a contender. They can sod right off. This idiotic Labour administration would actually set the cause of the left back a generation as the hard right would successfully stain them with the failure that is inevitable and coming down the pipe. The other progressives have a far stronger hand as they have made the correct argument all along.

IMO, you ascribe idiocy to others far too liberally.

Anyway, I'll bet you £20 payable via PayPal that if Corbyn leads Labour into another GE, you'll vote for Labour.

 

[Alex S]

I guess I’m hard remain but the schadenfreude in me makes me a teensy bit hard brexit.

 

[maxflinn]

I guess I’m hard remain but the schadenfreude in me makes me a teensy bit hard brexit.

I had to Google that. I thought it might be a German beer.

 

[Tony L]

If, as I suspect the Tories get Farage on board so the Brexit Party doesn't split the hard Brexit vote in any GE, then only a Labour majority can guarantee the public getting their say on it.

The Tories will haemorrhage massive amounts moderate votes if they did that. The big problem that is killing both Conservative and Labour is they are confusing the stance of a small and comparatively extreme party membership with the electorate at large. To put it another way if the Tories recruit Farage the Lib Dems will win a shed load of seats! I actually really hope they do it, but I doubt they are anything like that daft!

 

[Tony L]

Anyway, I'll bet you £20 payable via PayPal that if Corbyn leads Labour into another GE, you'll vote for Labour.

You may as well send it now as I absolutely guarantee I won’t!

 

[Alex S]

I had to Google that. I thought it might be a German beer.

Libfraumilch and Bitter as Alexie Sayle would have it.

 

[maxflinn]

The Tories will haemorrhage massive amounts moderate votes if they did that.

And they'd arguably gain even more pro-Brexit voters.

The big problem that is killing both Conservative and Labour is they are confusing the stance of a small and comparatively extreme party membership with the electorate at large.

I genuinely don't see how this statement makes sense given last night's results.

To put it another way if the Tories recruit Farage the Lib Dems will win a shed load of seats! I actually really hope they do it, but I doubt they are anything like that daft!

I don't think they'll recruit him. I think they may convince him not to run any Brexit Party candidates in a GE.

I can't say I'm sure of this arrangement happening, but I do see it as a real possibility.

 

[stevec67]

. I think they may convince him not to run any Brexit Party candidates in a GE.

I can't say I'm sure of this arrangement happening, but I do see it as a real possibility.

No chance whatsoever. Nige is looking at the black door at No 10 and thinking "You know what? "

 

[maxflinn]

No chance whatsoever. Nige is looking at the black door at No 10 and thinking "You know what? "

He won't want to be burdened with the responsibility of managing the fall-out from his beloved no deal Brexit.

 

[Seanm]

The Tories will haemorrhage massive amounts moderate votes if they did that. The big problem that is killing both Conservative and Labour is they are confusing the stance of a small and comparatively extreme party membership with the electorate at large. To put it another way if the Tories recruit Farage the Lib Dems will win a shed load of seats! I actually really hope they do it, but I doubt they are anything like that daft!

What Max said. But also I don't know how you square this business about the extreme Labour membership with the idea that the leadership are betraying their overwhelmingly remain members. There's always this desire to make Labour's perceived shortcomings over Brexit symptomatic of some broader problem with "left wing extremists" - even when it undermines the case against Corbyn on Brexit!

 

[Seanm]

No chance whatsoever. Nige is looking at the black door at No 10 and thinking "You know what? "

He's got no party. Longer term he might be able to develop some variation of Italy's 5 Star party (an acknowledged model) but he must know the appeal of something like that here would be sufficient to make him PM. Like Max I think if there's a GE over the next few months he'll agree to stand down on condition of the Tories adopting no deal as official policy, and wait to capitalise on the discontent following the outcome of that, which would be remain, Labour majority, kaput Tory party.

 

[Alex S]

To be honest I still don’t get Tony, Jack and others let down over Labour’s Brexit position. They can’t win a GE on the Islington vote, a great many of their supporters voted Brexit and the leader is an historic euro sceptic. What did anyone expect? Conversely the Tories are fairly entrenched euro sceptic, caused this mess and totally own it. And they are screwing the vast majority. We can vote whoever we like in single issue euro elections but red herrings aside, Labour are still the only viable opposition in FPTP and have to be voted for in a GE.

 

[gassor]

Philip Hammond has said he'd consider supporting a no confidence motion in any Tory leader looking to leave with no deal.

Their position is one of total opposition to a no deal Brexit, and any brexit that does not safeguard jobs and workers rights. As such, given the next Tory leader is likely to be at least open to the possibility of a no deal Brexit, or some kind of hard Brexit Labour will support a referendum on any Brexit he/she seeks to secure, with, AIUI, remaining the alternative option.

If, as I suspect the Tories get Farage on board so the Brexit Party doesn't split the hard Brexit vote in any GE, then only a Labour majority can guarantee the public getting their say on it.

Which would mean that remainers would have to vote tactically for Labour, rather than the Lib-Dems/Greens. Splitting the pro-2nd referendum vote would guarantee a Tory win, and a hard Brexit.

That's how I see it anyway.

Unless you want to see them humiliated in a GE they will need to come out with a clear position, ie no if or buts, which says remain. It's not enough for Labour to say we want a Ref2, they must know what their position will be but I doubt Corbyn can do this. There is no finality in simply getting another ref.

 

[Seanm]

End of the day, turnout was 37%.

There’s more going on in this country than Brexit.

 

[Tony L]

We can vote whoever we like in single issue euro elections but red herrings aside, Labour are still the only viable opposition in FPTP and have to be voted for in a GE.

Even forgetting the ‘let the Tories own Brexit outright’ thing it depends what your priorities are. I would far, far prefer to see a progressive coalition with SNP, LD and Green voices given appropriate weight than a Labour majority. It is no secret I don’t rate Corbyn, McDonnell or McCluskey and consider the current party a bit of a train-wreck. As ever I have no party allegiance and vote tactically. For me personally this would be a decision tree along the lines of:

Labour or Tory safe seat: a total waste of time voting, though vote for the minor progressive to help save their deposit.
Tory/Labour marginal: Labour.
UKIP/Labour marginal: Labour.
Labour/Green marginal: Green.
Labour/LD marginal: LD.
Conservative/LD marginal: LD.
Labour/SNP or PC marginal: SNP/PC.
etc etc etc.

I will always vote against the Tory and for a non-Labour progressive unless Labour is the only hope to win the seat.

 

[Swamp Thing]

Even if the Labour National Executive performed live from the rooftop of 3 Saville Row singing about the evils of Brexit and that they were for remain for ever and apologising for three years of stupidity then I'd still not believe them, on the grounds of incompetence, incoherence, ineptitude and if that were not enough - not having the bollocks to lead.

I would be OK allowing the savaged and bloody remains of the Labour Party to vote along with the Liberal/Green/SNP coalition as long as they expect no crumbs of office or policy from their betters who were willing to say no to Brexit from the start. There are those in the Labour party yet abed who will hold their manhood cheap...

 

[maxflinn]

Unless you want to see them humiliated in a GE they will need to come out with a clear position, ie no if or buts, which says remain. It's not enough for Labour to say we want a Ref2, they must know what their position will be but I doubt Corbyn can do this. There is no finality in simply getting another ref.

I believe they will do so.

 

[HarryB]

The dice have landed well.

Stonking win for the Brexit Party serving to focus the minds, Tories in crisis and now left with no choice but to elect someone petrified to do anything but deliver Brexit on/by Halloween.

Still possible the Tory infighting and prospect of a so called no deal (which doesn't really exist) will cause a few soft Tories to panic into supporting a confidence vote, triggering a general election.

I Like it.

The utter humiliation of Change UK is icing on the cake.

I think it's going to get bloodier than you can imagine Robert. Even Matthew Parris on Ch4 news predicted the death of the Tory Party. I'm not rejoicing yet, but I may watch May crying again.

 

[SteveS1]

I may watch May crying again.

Not only did they kick her out, but they are making her play 'handmaiden host' to Trump. The woman has no dignity, I'd have told them to stuff that. Perhaps Brenda ordered it.