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French Presidential Election 2022

Bob McC said:
Didn’t this happen in the run up to last time?
A strong showing for Le Pen in the first ballot then wiped out?
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Yes, after a monumentally bad performance in a TV debate from Marine Le Pen, and a very articulate, intelligent, presidential performance from Macron. She won’t make the same mistake again!
 
Woodface said:
Isn’t Macron pretty right wing anyway?
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It all depends on your definition of right wing. If you think Blair was a right winger, Macron is a right winger.

I think Macron is a centrist. He is certainly to the left of the mainstream right wing parties, represented by Pécresse in this election, who accuse him of being a spendthrift and soft on crime and immigration; to the right of Hidalgo, who represents what's left (sorry) of the Socialist party, currently below 3% in the polls, and Mélenchon, who is a bit like an energetic and articulate version of Jeremy Corbyn. Macron was a minister in Hollande's government, so calling him a right winger misses the point IMHO, unless of course you consider Hollande right wing. Calling him a banker is also bizarre (he worked at Banque Rothschild for 4 years. Pompidou was at the same bank for 9 years. A good socialist like Henri Emmanuelli had senior positions at the same bank, and nobody ever dreamed of calling him a banker).
 
messengerman said:
I'm fairly sure a none of the above option would win every election in sight hands down.
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In the UK it always does. More of the electorate stays at home than votes for the ‘winning’ party, e.g. last election the Tories got 43% of a 67% turnout, so just 28% of the eligible vote. 33% stayed away for whatever reason.
 
mandryka said:
Yes, after a monumentally bad performance in a TV debate from Marine Le Pen, and a very articulate, intelligent, presidential performance from Macron. She won’t make the same mistake again!
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So you think she will skip the second round debate with him?
 
Tony L said:
I rather hoped the events Putin is inflicting on Ukraine may have highlighted what fascism actually was and focused minds somewhat. Polls can be very wrong, I hope the French do the right thing on Sunday. Not entirely sure what that is, but it sure as hell isn’t voting for Le Pen.

PS I’m assuming this is some ‘second transferable vote’ system or similar?
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No, just two rounds, 2 weeks apart. Lots of candidates in the first round. If no candidate has an outright majority, the top 2 go through to the second round.
 
paulfromcamden said:
They're voting for the 'anti-establishment' candidate to stick it to 'the man'. Turkeys/Xmas type scenario.
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Ditto if they vote for the establishment candidate.

AIUI this could all go away if the centre left vote tactically for Mélenchon.
 
chartz said:
This is a sad situation.
I will vote Mélanchon.
But I feel that we will get another 5 years of Macron, sadly. Another five gloomy years.
Don’t forget that Macron represents the new right wing in France. A Tory in disguise.
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While I disagree with Mélenchon's views (and your view of Macron), I sincerely hope your preferred candidate does well on Sunday and beats Marine Le Pen to make it to the second round. If you add up all the left wing votes, currently split between 5 candidates, you get to 25% without the Green Jadot, who is more of a centrist. That is a lot more than Le Pen (on 22.5%) and close to Macron. But for many French left wingers, it seems that having 3 different flavours of anticapitalist candidates to choose from (Roussel, communist, Poutou and Artaud, both Trotskyists) is more important than beating Le Pen or Macron. This is even more amazing considering that the extreme right wing vote is split, which lowers the bar to make it to the second round.
 
What amazes me is all this talk about how convinced French voters are that Le Pen has somehow miraculously moderated her presentation. Do these people believe that a calculated change in rhetorical style will result in a change in the way she would lead?
 
PsB said:
So you think she will skip the second round debate with him?
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Well, I should have known better than to make a prediction. But my main reason for posting is to prompt you to answer my question: what has happened to the gilets jaunes? As far as I can see, Mélenchan hasn’t managed to capitalise on the movement. Has Le Pen? It looks to me as though it has completely fizzled out, it had hardly any political impact at all.

Marine Le Pen’s party seems to me to be quite similar to Boris Johnson’s, by the way.
 
The good thing about Putin is that he’s given centrists an off ramp: they can now acknowledge the rise of the radical right without having to reflect on their part in it.
 
Seanm said:
The good thing about Putin is that he’s given centrists an off ramp: they can now acknowledge the rise of the radical right without having to reflect on their part in it.
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Given the sheer number of leftists that regularly appeared on Putins propaganda TV network, apologised for the levelling of Aleppo, bought into ‘White Helmet’ conspiracy theory etc that’s pretty weak. Putin played all sides very successfully, especially the far left and far right. The objective looks to have been to weaken the middle and destabilise, i.e. exactly what we see here in France.
 
Tony L said:
Given the sheer number of leftists that regularly appeared on Putins propaganda TV network, apologised for the levelling of Aleppo, bought into ‘White Helmet’ conspiracy theory etc that’s pretty weak. Putin played all sides very successfully, especially the far left and far right.
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Yes, some left wing Putin-supporting cranks on Twitter are certainly responsible for this.
 
I mean, to be clear, they are exactly as responsible for the rise of fascism in France as centrist and right wing supporters of Putin, I.e. not at all.

As I say, Putin is a way of explaining all this without having to actually explain it.
 
Tony L said:
Given the sheer number of leftists that regularly appeared on Putins propaganda TV network, apologised for the levelling of Aleppo, bought into ‘White Helmet’ conspiracy theory etc that’s pretty weak. Putin played all sides very successfully, especially the far left and far right. The objective looks to have been to weaken the middle and destabilise.
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I assume you're thinking of George Galloway (who is regarded as an opportunistic prick by almost every leftist on Twitter that I follow)?

Unless you can name any others? "Sheer number" suggests that there are lots of them.
 
Seanm said:
I mean, to be clear, they are exactly as responsible for the rise of fascism in France as centrist and right wing supporters of Putin, I.e. not at all.

As I say, Putin is a way of explaining all this without having to actually explain it.
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Classic example in today's Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/08/vladimir-putin-viktor-orban-eu-marine-le-pen

Why label these movements "Putinism"? Why not be honest and say that this is what right-wing politics is in the 21st century?

Complete brain rot.
 
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