Election night 2019 / aftermath

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

I'm not sure that was the main reason, as, despite pfm not, with hindsight, being a microcosm of the country's feelings (), it looks like having been a leadership clash (chalk and cheese here), most people being absolutely fed up with the indecision about Brexit and the realisation (which surprised me) of the economic nonsense of Corbyn's manifesto. The Global markets were awaiting certainty to invest and the E.U. wanted Boris to succeed.

Blair's Labour party was not only different at inception but contained some eminent people, esp. in financial matters. It was a far cry from the very left- leaning and anachronistic policies of Corbyn.

I don't see Corbyn's LP policies as anachronistic, nor 'economic nonsense'. They were, AIUI, clearly costed (which is more than you can say for the Tories' manifesto pledges). Also, the Tory economic policy comes from the same economic whizz-kids who gave us nearly ten years of austerity, thereby stifling any hope of recovery from the 2008 crash, and ruining many lives as mere collateral damage. This against the advice of the great majority of independent academics and economic experts, at the time and subsequently. So I'm not sure I take any lessons on economics from Tories.

 

[Dave H.]

Better informed how. Reading a mix of truth and lies on the internet without discernment vs actual experience? One binds to a dogma that has proven to be what you like best over time. that's a good thing. It doesn't mean you can't shift your position. Closed minded people are born and made regardless of age.

That assumes equal lying on all sides (demonstrably not true - 88% vs 0% as en example if you care to google) and that experience equals wisdom (again, demonstrably not true - miners voting Tory).

OTOH there is overwhelming evidence that people get more conservative and more right wing as they get older.

 

[vuk]

Better informed how. Reading a mix of truth and lies on the internet without discernment vs actual experience? One binds to a dogma that has proven to be what you like best over time. that's a good thing. It doesn't mean you can't shift your position. Closed minded people are born and made regardless of age.

i am pointing to a very solid bit of behavioural evidence: according to voting trends, they are making far more informed decisions -- or, at least, decisions that are practically indistinguishable.

 

[Joe Hutch]

the key factor, IMO, is that younger people are far better informed and not bound by old dogmas.

 

[vuk]

OTOH there is overwhelming evidence that people get more conservative and more right wing as they get older.

can you show me one peer-reviewed example of this?

 

[MikeMA]

that doesn't make sense anymore because the right is actually the less conservative party.

the key factor, IMO, is that younger people are far better informed and not bound by old dogmas.

.........until they get older?

 

[Hook]

So this is why Johnson is going to build 40 new hospitals. To keep older Tory voters alive as long as possible!

 

[Dave H.]

can you show me one peer-reviewed example of this?

I don’t have one to hand, but I do have JSTOR etc access, so I’ll try to remember to have a look later when I get in.

Though I would say that the countless voting demographics studies, of which the map in this thread is just a recent example (and the famous Ashcroft referendum analysis is another) pretty much bear it out already - if people didn’t drift right as they got older, and given that young people are clearly to the left, and have been for generations, there wouldn’t be any right wingers left after a certain point in time. Given the popularity of radical left politics among engaged young people in the 60s-80s, for example, the Tories would have ceased to exist by now without rightwards drift with age.

PS, if you’re genuinely interested, as opposed to trying to argue there is no evidence, if you want to have a look via google scholar or something like that and send me some references, I’d be happy to get hold of the articles & pass them on if you don’t have access.

 

[vuk]

.........until they get older?

there you go -- you've just pointed a big flaw in trying to make the case that these changes are down to aging.

 

[Hook]

can you show me one peer-reviewed example of this?

It is not aging alone that causes people to become more conservative. It’s that as many age, they tend to accumulate wealth. Once they get past 50 or so, their mindset turns to protecting what they’ve got. They vote for lower taxes, and against wealth redistribution. In other words, they vote with their wallets.

 

[Rockmeister]

That assumes equal lying on all sides (demonstrably not true - 88% vs 0% as en example if you care to google) and that experience equals wisdom (again, demonstrably not true - miners voting Tory).

OTOH there is overwhelming evidence that people get more conservative and more right wing as they get older.

I don't have the research to argue the first part. I'd have thought there were a good many foreign agencies keen to promote a left wing government here who would be posting or supporting those campaigns. But as to you your second point...it's not right. Firstly not all miners vote labour (odd but true) but the vote was not about their (now non existent anyway) industry, so not about that title 'miner', but about brexit. They didn't vote tory to become tories, they voted to get brexit done, and will doubtless shift back as fast when it turns into a shambles that effects their wallet. In that case wisdom was directly influenced by those issues of nationality, racism and zenophobia

 

[Nick_G]

She was PM when that pic was taken, not an opposition leader.
Corbyn is a Marxist leader of the opposition and, in many Brits eyes, an IRA sympathiser, Hamas supporter, Russia supporter and anti Semite.
Not the best credentials for a prospective British prime minister.

Whereas Johnson is a self-serving, narcissitic, lying, cheating, lawbreaking, far-right colluding racist buffoon full of more crap than a Fison's warehouse. How do you think that's going to turn out over the next 5 years?

 

[MikeMA]

I don’t have one to hand, but I do have JSTOR etc access, so I’ll try to remember to have a look later when I get in.

Though I would say that the countless voting demographics studies, of which the map in this thread is just a recent example (and the famous Ashcroft referendum analysis is another) pretty much bear it out already - if people didn’t drift right as they got older, and given that young people are clearly to the left, and have been for generations, there wouldn’t be any right wingers left after a certain point in time. Given the popularity of radical left politics among engaged young people in the 60s-80s, for example, the Tories would have ceased to exist by now without rightwards drift with age.

Exactly this.

I'd argue that the student generation of the late 60s - my student generation! - was far more radical and prepared to demonstrate and chuck stuff about than the current bunch, who seem positively tame. Loads of them must be voting Tory by now, though not me!

 

[MikeMA]

there you go -- you've just pointed a big flaw in trying to make the case that these changes are down to aging.

I disagree. As others have pointed out, the empirical evidence seems pretty conclusive.

 

[Bob McC]

In my family there are 3 of us with partners.
All are 60 plus.
All voted Labour bar one , an ex Daily Express manager, he’s a rabid nutter.
The rest of us have got more left wing over the last 10 years as we fear for our children’s futures under the Tories.

 

[Barrymagrec]

Whereas Johnson is a self-serving, narcissitic, lying, cheating, lawbreaking, far-right colluding racist buffon full of more crap than a Fison's warehouse. How do you think that's going to turn out over the next 5 years?

For him? great. For most of the rest of us? not so much.

 

[vuk]

I disagree. As others have pointed out, the empirical evidence seems pretty conclusive.

no, it is not conclusive at all. we have correlational evidence that can be interpreted many ways.

 

[vuk]

It is not aging alone that causes people to become more conservative. It’s that as many age, they tend to accumulate wealth...

have most people in the USA and UK been accumulating wealth and can you show me the studies connecting this to voting?

i agree that it is a plausible effect. i have great difficulty imagining it fully/mostly explain that UK voting map.

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

I don't have the research to argue the first part. I'd have thought there were a good many foreign agencies keen to promote a left wing government here who would be posting or supporting those campaigns.

You make an interesting point.

If, as is often claimed, a Corbyn-led, 'far left' (their term) government would have been a disaster for the UK, then it does seem likely that this country's 'enemies', chief amongst them the Russians or perhaps the Chinese, would have deployed their considerable resources into subtly manipulating the situation so as to bring it about, and thus weaken the UK.

I'm pretty sure if that had been the evidence in the, now buried, report into Russian interference, then Boris would have been keen to ensure every editor had a copy on their desk well ahead of the election.

He didn't, which does imply the reverse might be the case. From which it follows that the Russians prefer a Tory, right-wing government. That might be because, ideologically, they stand to benefit more from a like-minded, kleptocratic administration, or it might be that Putin sees the best way to bring the UK to its knees is to install an incompetent government, stocked with self-serving idiots. So, either a kleptocracy, or an idiocracy, but either way, not in our nation's best interests.

 

[glancaster]

I think most of the analysis here seems to support the idea that the platform (aside from some questions over the sheer number of pledges) was probably not much of an issue. A long way behind voter reaction to Corbyn and Brexit as obstacles.

If you wanted to attack Labour, you'd focus on the easy stuff: Corbyn himself and the Brexit policy. It would be a mistake to assume that, on that basis, the rest of it was fine: if those two corkers had been dealt with, the right would have found something else. As it was, they didn't need to trouble themselves too much with that. The proposition was never properly tested.