the heretic
pfm Member
Interesting to see how these new antivirals will work with breakthrough infections in the vaccinated. They've all been trialled in the unvaccinated.
Coronavirus - the new strain XXI
- Thread starter gavreid
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No reason to think they will not work at least as well. They inhibit Covid growth in the body.
mandryka
pfm Member
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK - Office for National Statistics
Wk ending Oct 30
No clear data on the impact of NPIs in Scotland, which should give pause for thought to those who are quick to jump to conclusions about such matters.
In England the growth in cases could well have been slowing in the period leading up to half tem, which is an encouraging sign.
Still, there's a very long tail and a very high level.
Wk ending Oct 30
No clear data on the impact of NPIs in Scotland, which should give pause for thought to those who are quick to jump to conclusions about such matters.
In England the growth in cases could well have been slowing in the period leading up to half tem, which is an encouraging sign.
Still, there's a very long tail and a very high level.
Enfield boy
pfm Member
This is great news. I'm still fuming that my daughter was refused the virus at age 13 cos they were only vaccinating 12 yo girls. It turned out that she could have been vaccinated at any time up to 18 but we weren't told even though we challenged it.
gavreid
Pretty Words...
That's dreadful. My daughter was ill two years ago and they've still not got around to the catchup but they seem to be willing. It's 3 doses over 3 years apparently
If you watched the data section of the Indie Sage presentation then you would have seen the part about NPIs. The UK led the way in removing them and has had the worst number of cases and deaths (for pretty much the same vaccination level as the countries used in the comparison). The countries that got rid of their NPIs more recently have started to show an increase in the number of cases and deaths. The countries that have kept the NPIs in place have kept the low level of cases. So based on many data samples there does seem to be some correlation with vaccines and NPIs vs just vaccines being used to try and control Covid.
Also shown and commented on in the Indie Sage presentation. Encouraging, but as always we need more data to see if the reduction was real and not a data artefact for just before the half term holiday. This may take some time to become clear as once the school children are back together it seems very likely that the numbers will go up for a period of time (after number of cases reducing considerably over half term).
gavreid
Pretty Words...
German health ministers call for universal boosters
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...08acc2f87bcad1#block-61853a8b8f08acc2f87bcad1
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...08acc2f87bcad1#block-61853a8b8f08acc2f87bcad1
Ok, back to ONS per 100,000 vaccinate/unvaccinated case rates. I know some of you like a challenge (and thanks to @mandryka for pointers for me on this topic before). Comparing the week 38 report with the recent week 43 report, there is a significant rise in Under 18 Unvaccinated per 100,000 cases (1592 -> 3149), and a significant rise in 40-49 Vaccinated cases (1151 -> 1936). Presumably the vaccinated parents of the unvaccinated children. But there is hardly any rise in 40-49 unvaccinated cases (787 -> 834). ONS are going to even more trouble in the week 43 report to make suggestions as to why vaccinated/unvaccinated testing may be unreliable, but the dynamic of the figures between the two reports is so marked, and total population estimates affecting denominator is clearly not at play. Any theories?
Week 38 p. 13: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1019992/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_38.pdf
Week 43 p. 19: https://assets.publishing.service.g...29606/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-43.pdf
Week 38 p. 13: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1019992/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_38.pdf
Week 43 p. 19: https://assets.publishing.service.g...29606/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-43.pdf
mandryka
pfm Member
Thanks for pointing out this interesting bit of the presentation.
If I were you I’d write an email to Paget or some other Isage bod with a bit of maths, if you spend a bit of time ingratiating yourself first she may share her thoughts with you,
gavreid
Pretty Words...
I don't follow these at all but the issue may be (off the top of the head) that the vaccination status ratio in some age groups is still changing while among the older age groups it's all but constant so you aren't comparing apple with apples between the two reports i.e. it's a different set of cases from a different distribution with a sizebale uncertainty owing to the denominators.
gavreid
Pretty Words...
mandryka
pfm Member
There’s a slightly irritating thing in this, where she takes the number of people eligible for boosters at a point of time and the number of people who’ve had them at the same point of time, sees a gap (obviously!) and then uses it to beat the government over the head. At one point she even tried to scare everyone by saying “if they want to save Christmas they’d better get a move on!”
Such rubbish!
People will need some time to get to their appointment for the third shot. It’s not like they’re in pain or anything, it’s not like the booster is urgent, they’ll choose a time which fits in with their agendas - understandably and rightly.
Does anyone know if there’s a graph which shows the gap between people eligible and people receiving them within, let’s say, a month of becoming eligible? That would be a bit more useful, and probably not hard to produce for someone who’s in the mood and has the intellectual wherewithal.
Sue Pertwee-Tyr
Accuphase all the way down
Also, not everybody eligible for a booster has waning immunity to the same extent.
We had Covid in the early days, well before the vaccines were ready, and subsequently we were double jabbed in due course. But I understand double jabbed plus actual Covid offers a higher level of protection than just double jabbed. So there might have been less urgency, or fewer consequences had we delayed by a month or so.
Hence you can’t draw a straight line between booster delays and increased risk.
We had Covid in the early days, well before the vaccines were ready, and subsequently we were double jabbed in due course. But I understand double jabbed plus actual Covid offers a higher level of protection than just double jabbed. So there might have been less urgency, or fewer consequences had we delayed by a month or so.
Hence you can’t draw a straight line between booster delays and increased risk.
gavreid
Pretty Words...
I don't get your point. She's saying the pace of booster roll out is far behind the pace of delivery of the 2nd doses. Why is that rubbish?
gavreid
Pretty Words...
But we don't know who they are of course...
Sue Pertwee-Tyr
Accuphase all the way down
No, but my point was that on a population level, any inference that booster delay automatically correlates to increased risk, needs to be carefully qualified.
mandryka
pfm Member
What’s rubbish is to use it as a stick to beat the government. A much more salient stick would be to say that people getting their booster within three or four weeks of eligibility is far behind where it should be to feel comfortable.
It’s a similar problem IMO to the chosen denominator in that paper on vaccine effectiveness in adolescents.
In both cases the statistics she focuses on are the ones which present the government in the worst light - but the argument may not be quite as good as it could be because the statistic isn’t the most relevant one. She is in danger of looking like just another anti Tory hack, which undermines her credibility.
Excellent!
Excellentissimo!
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