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Coronavirus - the new strain XXI

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Paul,

I saw several articles about this at the time, but I was scratching my head wondering how a crippled virus could outcompete the dominant strain of the virus. From an evolutionary biology perspective this seems so utterly unlikely.

But if I'm wrong I'll eat my hat or whatever people do when they're wrong.

Joe
 
Joe P said:
Paul,

I saw several articles about this at the time, but I was scratching my head wondering how a crippled virus could outcompete the dominant strain of the virus. From an evolutionary biology perspective this seems so utterly unlikely.

But if I'm wrong I'll eat my hat or whatever people do when they're wrong.

Joe
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The point I really want to make is this: nothing in this covid malarkey is simple, everything is contentious. That's what makes it interesting for me, even from the social point of view, the way people become so rapidly entrenched in a position, the way they desperately try to present as fact what is their own politically influenced perspective. That's why this forum on Pink Fish is interesting. I think it's exciting to see the semi-rational way science happens, the way paradigms become entrenched in the scientific and popular community.
 
Joe P said:
Paul,

I saw several articles about this at the time, but I was scratching my head wondering how a crippled virus could outcompete the dominant strain of the virus. From an evolutionary biology perspective this seems so utterly unlikely.

But if I'm wrong I'll eat my hat or whatever people do when they're wrong.

Joe
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I'll certainly defer to you in matters of evolutionary biology Joe!

It's one theory from one researcher who has yet to formally publish the research. So interesting but a bit early to draw any conclusions I guess.
 
mandryka said:
The point I really want to make is this: nothing in this covid malarkey is simple, everything is contentious. That's what makes it interesting for me, even from the social point of view, the way people become so rapidly entrenched in a position, the way they desperately try to present as fact what is their own politically influenced perspective. That's why this forum on Pink Fish is interesting. I think it's exciting to see the semi-rational way science happens, the way paradigms become entrenched in the scientific and popular community.
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Of course everyone is going to filter this through their own set of preconceptions and biases. We are all but human.

You've repeatedly stated you hate wearing a 'face rag' for example - so when you question the appropriateness of face coverings in a particular situation I bear that in mind.
 
Double jabbed here but not sure about having the booster.

Omicron being an anagram of Moronic doesn't exactly inspire me much. Might just wait and see how things develop.
 
Paul,

Japan's success with COVID ought to be celebrated and why they've done so well when other countries have done so poorly ought to be studied in detail. What has happened there might be transferable elsewhere. But I can't see how SARS-CoV-2 has mutated itself out of existence. Some errors in viral replication will lead to a dead end and that particular lineage would die out, but that has no bearing on other strains of SARS-CoV-2 that are infectious.

My take is that a finding in one lab has been misunderstood by the media that wrote the article.

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Joe
 
gavreid said:
Taxi for Sean...
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It's a contentious claim with significant implications. She needs to back it up for those who aren't already on board, because the faithful are few.

On the wider point, I don't know what she and the rest of the crew are after when it comes to schools. It's difficult to argue simultaneously that schools are the prime engine of a disease that needs to be eliminated at all costs, and that these Petri dishes are going to be neutralised with masks and a few HEPA filters. Presumably the goal is actually school closure. But that's not realistic, unless Omicron turns out to be really awful. So what's the point of trying to convince (mislead) people that the only thing that's going to make a real difference is something that won't happen and that nobody actually wants to happen? It can only lead to fatalism.
 
Joe P said:
A paper on that very topic.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340580463_Why_does_Japan_have_so_few_cases_of_COVID19

Surprise, surprise, wearing a mask likely contributed to Japan's very low case load. It's not the only factor, but to say it didn't contribute seems unlikely.

Joe
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But no one bar some real cranks would argue otherwise, so what's going on here?

One of the problems with m*** discourse is that the moment our side finds something that suggests they work we tend to leave it at that. Masks seem like the least interesting thing about the Japanese approach: lots of places have used them, after all, including the UK. If we stop with masks we miss the more interesting stuff, like Japan's very different approach to test and trace, focusing on clusters, networks and super-spreaders. There was some discussion last year: https://pinkfishmedia.net/forum/threads/japan-covid-19-why.246411/page-4#post-4128414

Article here:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/

The UK's measures have been both crude and ineffective in comparison. There's been research here on clusters and networks...

https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.abg0842

...but it's exactly the kind of thing that gets crowded out by masks/borders/schools discourse - not only because it's less flashy but (I suspect) because it points to things that we don't want to acknowledge: the role of poverty and work in spreading the disease, and the way that the harms of lockdown have been piled onto the poor.
 
paulfromcamden said:
You've repeatedly stated you hate wearing a 'face rag' for example - so when you question the appropriateness of face coverings in a particular situation I bear that in mind.
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I used that expression to draw people’s attention to this, which I think is fact: many people, including myself, in fact use bits of rag to cover their faces, they don’t use surgical masks. I use a bandana sort of thing.

And even if people do use surgical masks, they tend to use them long past their use-by date etc. What mattered to me then and now is people’s actual uses and attitudes of face coverings, not some ideal or fantasy.

This is fact, it is nothing to do with my “preconceptions and biases”. On the other hand, your calling them “masks” is an instance of your preconceptions and biases.
 
The gov is trying so hard to keep majority of VOTERS happy it compromises and backs down/off when slightest hiccup presents potential bad press.
 
Seanm said:
One of the problems with m*** discourse is that the moment our side finds something that suggests they work we tend to leave it at that.
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I'm not sure that's what's actually been said in this thread though Sean.

@mandryka said about Japan "the consensus of informed opinion is that doesn't have anything to do with masks and that sort of thing" and Joe simply replied that there was plenty to suggest that masks and that sort of thing were playing a role in reducing infection rates.

Completely agree that we shouldn't be focusing (or dismissing) any one measure. Swiss Cheese approach innit!
 
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