advertisement


Coronavirus - the new strain XX

Status
Not open for further replies.
JCVI’s rationale for advising 16-17 year olds to be vaccinated seems reasonable and we don’t need to ascribe ulterior motives. Feel compelled to point this out. There is no basis whatsoever on which to charge the JCVI with having compromised its professional and public duty in order to provide some kind of cover (why?) for the government. Indiscriminate distrust of all institutions is unhealthy and counterproductive. Bonkers to undermine trust in JCVI at a time when anti-vaxx sentiment is on the rise.
 
gavreid said:
29 312 cases today (up slightly on a week ago and a huge jump from yesterday), 119 deaths and 686 admissions (2nd)
Click to expand...

Very encouraging that it's not significantly up from last week's .gov.uk reliable figures, it looks like Freedom is doable, our Boris was right again, he's got the devil's own luck, that man, fingers crossed that it's reflecting a real trend in incidence. I'd be slightly surprised if it isn't, given the recent ZOE report. Who'd have thunk it four weeks ago? It makes me itch to

hc25036 said:
start dancing in the streets.
Click to expand...

As Macron would say, Britain is the premier de cordée.
 
mandryka said:
Very encouraging that it's not significantly up from last week's .gov.uk reliable figures, it looks like Freedom is doable, our Boris was right again, he's got the devil's own luck, that man, fingers crossed that it's reflecting a real trend in incidence. I'd be slightly surprised if it isn't, given the recent ZOE report. Who'd have thunk it four weeks ago? It makes me itch to



As Macron would say, Britain is the premier de cordée.
Click to expand...

I wonder just when the tests reported today would have actually been conducted. The temptation is to think that it was yesterday or the day before - could it be as much as a fortnight ago...
 
Bananahead said:
I have just heard that a distant friend has successfully taken her own life. Apparently, she couldn't cope with long-covid I suspect that it won't get recorded as a covid death.
Click to expand...

That's awful news - having had post viral fatigue in my late 20s (wasn't really severe, but took years to resolve fully) I can relate to the incredible frustration. So sorry your friend couldn't get to the other side of her long COVID.
 
Bananahead said:
I have just heard that a distant friend has successfully taken her own life. Apparently, she couldn't cope with long-covid I suspect that it won't get recorded as a covid death.
Click to expand...

Terrible tragedy, all I can think of is this:

No man is an island, entire of itself; every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main; if a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is the less, as well as if a promontory were, as well as if a manor of thy friend’s or of thine own were; any man’s death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind, and therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.
Click to expand...

The tragedy is not just that she took her life, but that no-one could help her see a way better way. It's a sad reflection of something . . .
 
mandryka said:
Now, now, don't let your imagination get the better of your reason.
Click to expand...

I've long thought it - that's why we're being allowed to see the numbers, otherwise why are we not expected to see the effect of relaxation yet?

The rubric states: "Number of people with at least one positive COVID-19 virus test result. Initially only pillar 1 tests (NHS and, in England, PHE labs) were included but pillar 2 (commercial tests) have been included from varying dates between 15th June and 14th July for each nation, leading to step increases in the numbers of cases for the individual nations reported at different times."
 
Surely the most important issue is not how many have covid but how many are hospitalised with it?
 
mandryka said:
Yes. One is a function of the other.
Click to expand...

Well if no one has it there would be zero hospitalisations because of it.

But what is the proportion of those testing positive for Covid now and the proportion hospitalised against the same position 18 months ago, 12 months ago, 6 months ago?

Gavreid might know.
 
Cav said:
Well if no one has it there would be zero hospitalisations because of it.

But what is the proportion of those testing positive for Covid now and the proportion hospitalised against the same position 18 months ago, 12 months ago, 6 months ago?

Gavreid might know.
Click to expand...

I linked to a graph from the FT a couple of weeks ago - the peak was 25% of where it would have been in January (when there had been very little vaccination). It's a little difficult to compare directly as testing capacity changes, the LFTs only came in from March when schools reopened

https://pinkfishmedia.net/forum/threads/coronavirus-the-new-strain-xx.257800/page-11#post-4428175
 
Last edited:
Cav said:
... But what is the proportion of those testing positive for Covid now and the proportion hospitalised against the same position 18 months ago, 12 months ago, 6 months ago?
Click to expand...
This (I think it's what you asked) is a simple graph derived from headline data dumped from the official web-site. It's the percentage of UK cases that go onto a hospital admission (time-adjusted for the median delay between symptom onset and hospitalization from a published study I found).
Jut beware I did this quickly and it may need checking. Also a proper analysis would need raw data I don't have but statistically this may be OK. The time adjustment is not critical to the bigger features but don't over-interpret small squiggles.

It may be that the rate has hit some plateau. But I also did the deaths/cases ratio and encouragingly that continues to drop. Indicating to me continuing improvement in impact (at least on deaths) from the vaccine. When that one hits a plateau then it might be of greater significance.
 
"The JCVI made their decision on limiting vaccinations to 12-17 year olds without providing a quantitative analysis of the costs and benefits of so doing. We provide such an analysis and show how the benefits greatly outweigh the costs."

"The JCVI, in its report, notes that it will revise its position as further information arises. We hope that this analysis will aid them in their task."

https://twitter.com/ReicherStephen/status/1422917195617734663

This statement (below from JCVI) is beyond outrageous considering the numbers missing school through isolation - the real reason in my view is shortage of Pfizer vaccines, which the Government just can't concede for fear of bursting the illusion about the world leading (no longer) program.

"Delivery of a COVID-19 vaccine programme for children and young people is likely to be disruptive to education in the short-term, particularly if school premises are used for vaccination. Adverse reactions to vaccination (such as fevers) may also lead to time away from education for some individuals."

Such excuses are not made regarding annual flu or the HPV vaccination programmes.
 
The number of pings from the App has nearly halved at the same time as the reported case numbers have been flatish (which is not what the article below reports). I'm looking at the case numbers by specimen date in the week leading up to 28th July. I'm pretty convinced that the daily case number reports can have a significant lag (which will matter when case numbers are changing rapidly). I think cases by specimen date are updated continually as and when they come in and then the cases by date reported figure for the day is the sum of these new figures, including corrections, over a range of dates. I suspect that this is the mechanism for the introduction of systematic, periodic artefacts into the data too.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/05/number-of-nhs-covid-app-pings-falls-by-43-in-a-week
 
Here's the latest surveillance report.

Overall case rates decreased in week 30. Case rates decreased in all age groups, regions and ethnic groups. Overall Pillar 1 and Pillar 2 positivity continued to decrease slightly compared to the previous week

Cases remain highest across the North - the map is on p 14.

Outbreaks are still relatively high with 269/469 of the new ARI incidents reported in week 30 being from care home settings
 
Here's more on vaccinating kids

"UK paediatricians have expressed alarm about a “shambolic” vaccine rollout for children, saying doctors were being “left in the dark” about plans for the programme and unable to answer questions from patients."

Dr Camilla Kingdon, RCPCH president, said:

"The rollout of the vaccine programme for adults has been incredibly impressive but, for children and young people, it has been frankly shambolic. This is the second announcement around vaccinations for children or young people in the last three weeks but we still haven’t seen detailed plans for rollout of the first."


https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...089093df875153#block-610bdfd18f089093df875153
 
gavreid said:
"The rollout of the vaccine programme for adults has been incredibly impressive but, for children and young people, it has been frankly shambolic. This is the second announcement around vaccinations for children or young people in the last three weeks but we still haven’t seen detailed plans for rollout of the first."
Click to expand...

The question is not, 'Can they reason?' nor, 'Can they suffer?' but rather, 'Can they vote?'
 
Status
Not open for further replies.


advertisement


Back
Top