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Coronavirus - the new strain XX

Discussion in 'off topic' started by gavreid, Jul 22, 2021.

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  1. davidsrsb

    davidsrsb pfm Member

    Maybe you are finding out what happens to most fully vaxed healthy people who get an asymptomatic infection boosting their immunity
     
  2. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    I think it's a lull post holidays and before schools and universtities return. Cases among students were running at 10 times the national average at the end of last term. Those people will all have had one dose by now so we'll have to see. All the Government's eggs are in the vaccination basket...

    The first boosters are being rolled out today for people who are approaching 10 months sinnce the initial dose

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58583610
     
  3. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    26 911 new cases, 158 deaths and 701 admissions
     
  4. Seanm

    Seanm pfm Member

    I don't know about party political, but sure: a national press on the bones of its arse and leading with emotion/sensation; a new class of media scientists taking advantage; big audience of WFH professionals whose only real risk factor is their children. It's understandable but it warps discussion, and probably policy. Very little discussion of the role of work in transmission, and even less of the international picture. As an example: months of fraught discussion over the JCVI position on kids (where risks and benefits either way are very low), while their decision on boosting everyone over 50 passes without comment. Seems to me like that might be at least as consequential a decision.
     
  5. mandryka

    mandryka pfm Member

    I suppose my thought was that the media scientists were influencing the perspective of the journalists, rather than the press looking for an sensational story and influencing what the scientists say. But yes, I see you could be right, maybe there was influence both ways.

    But here we are, 26K cases today, and as far as I can see not a dicky bird about it either from press or media scientists. Good news is no news.

    You remember there was a concept of "hybrid immunity" being promulgated in July -- a situation where so many people either have vaccine induced immunity or acquired immunity that the virus starts to run out of fuel.
     
  6. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    You'll get Indie Sage tomorrow.
     
  7. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    Long covid might be less common than first feared - 1 in 40 after 3 months.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58584558

    There have been about 7.5 million confirmed cases so far - that's still near 200 000 long covid cases to date
     
  8. IanW

    IanW pfm Member

    I was going to download the data and do some analysis myself to see if patterns in the number of cases was really followed by the number of hospital admissions, but then my daughter sent me this:

    https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1437802268343128070/photo/4

    Graph shows rate of change of new cases offset by 7 days with rate of change of hospital admissions. The correlation is very good (not an absolute overlay due to noise in the number of new cases, probably due to reasons that have been discussed on here) and strongly suggests, that we can use the rate of change (pattern in the data) of new cases to inform as to how the infection in the country is changing.

    As to why there is no mention anywhere of the number of new cases dropping not being mentioned anywhere, I do not know.

    I would like to see an explanation as to why the cases are dropping now as opposed to in a few weeks time etc.
     
    mandryka likes this.
  9. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    Prof Alan McNally says genome surveillance remains vital, as ministers prepare to overhaul travel rules

    “The devil’s in the detail in this and I would really hope there will be a very strong mandate that any lateral flow positive test from travel have to get a confirmatory PCR test because in my opinion we still that genome level surveillance of Covid cases being introduced into the UK from abroad.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...xation-covid-travel-rules-genome-surveillance
     
  10. mandryka

    mandryka pfm Member

    Very clear, thanks.
     
  11. Seanm

    Seanm pfm Member

    It's a complicated situation, as regards influence. For instance here we see a professional campaign organisation made up of scientists, journalists and others raising money from media consumers to pay scientist-celebrities to tell journalists to tell their readers and viewers that their children are in grave danger:

    https://twitter.com/allthecitizens/status/1438770234069069824?s=20

    (The Citizens is Independent Sage's umbrella brand.)
     
    mandryka likes this.
  12. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    Schools returned early (23/8) in Leicestershire (where cases are extremely high) and cases in kids are now rising sharply. The recent fall nationally is thought to be 2nd dose coverage in the 20+ age group.

    One death every 10 minutes...

     
  13. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    32 651 cases today (there were no data from Scotland yesterday to explain the somewhat low figure), 178 deaths and 691 admissions (15th)
     
  14. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

  15. mandryka

    mandryka pfm Member

    In the week up to 11 Sep, Scotland plateaued at 2.2% of the population coming down with a dose of covid, which is good news. England also plateaued more or less with 1.2% of the population catching the bug, which is also encouraging. Both these figures are especially heartening given the decline in the number of positive test results this week - generally, I think if positives are coming down, incidence is coming down. (I think)
     
  16. mandryka

    mandryka pfm Member

    Very good news that the cases are now starting to focus on the school kids. Everything seems to me to be going quite well at the moment.

    I had lunch in the west end today. London is really bouncing back - it feels as lively as it did in September 2019!
     
  17. Seeker_UK

    Seeker_UK Booyakashah, check out my avatar...

    The Tube remains quiet.
     
  18. mandryka

    mandryka pfm Member

    Not when you get off the train at Oxford Circus on the northbound Victoria Line! It’s always a real crush because the platform is narrow. Generally I feel very safe on the tube train itself, more safe than in some supermarkets, it’s the platforms and interchanges I don’t like.

    Next week I start an assignment which means I’ll have to travel from Wimbledon to Leicester Square some mornings at about 9.00, I’m not sure what I’ll find.
     
  19. Seeker_UK

    Seeker_UK Booyakashah, check out my avatar...

    That's *exactly* where I was two days ago and it was nowhere near as busy as it was when I was regularly commuting that line in 2006-2013 and 2018-2020. (07:30 and 16:00)
     
    mandryka likes this.
  20. mandryka

    mandryka pfm Member

    Today I took the train into Waterloo and then the Bakerloo line. Waterloo seemed pretty lively at 5.00 p.m. - but you may be right, I can’t remember how it was a couple of years ago with any real clarity. The train was a Guildford one, stopping at Wimbledon - it’s true that there was no problem getting a seat.

    Anyway I hope you’re right, because I’m slightly concerned about making a morning commute, probably needless anxiety. We shall see on Wednesday.

     
    Seeker_UK likes this.
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