gavreid
Pretty Words...
Even then it's only a 3% improvement or so, something better is needed urgently the way things are going
Coronavirus - the new strain IX
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Even then it's only a 3% improvement or so, something better is needed urgently the way things are going
k90tour
pfm Member
I was listening to a BBC World Service corespondent discussing the pandemic in Japan. She said that social distancing laws weren't required in Japan because if the government ask people to socially distance themselves, people do it for the greater good without needing to be told twice. And wearing masks is accepted as being part of that.
It's the opposite here. I look around and see people carrying on as if the pandemic was someone else problem.
It's the opposite here. I look around and see people carrying on as if the pandemic was someone else problem.
Joe P
Memory Alpha incarnate | mod; Shatner number = 2
k90,
As the meme says, we should act as though we have Schrödinger's virus — we ought to behave as though we are infected so we don't spread the virus to others, and we ought to behave as though we haven't been infected by the virus and thus are not immune.
Maybe the Japanese didn't sleep through physics and biology classes and get the meme.
Joe
As the meme says, we should act as though we have Schrödinger's virus — we ought to behave as though we are infected so we don't spread the virus to others, and we ought to behave as though we haven't been infected by the virus and thus are not immune.
Maybe the Japanese didn't sleep through physics and biology classes and get the meme.
Joe
Tony L
Administrator
The Register appropriately damning of the government’s shambolic response and predicts a second wave this winter unless there is a proper track and trace strategy.
Nick_G
pfm Member
stephen bennett
Mr Enigma
THE Government’s response to this on Radio 4’s PM was ”we have a World beating track and trace system”.
Making sh£t up is so much easier than doing anything. That would get in the way of gifting friends and donors tax payer cash for doing f#£I all.
Stephen
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All successful countries with track and trace use local health workers , no crappy app etc ,many scientists have been saying for ages this is what we should be doing so not surprised local councils are taking this on . But still the government persists with Dido useless Harding !
davidsrsb
pfm Member
And start from a low infection baseline so that the numbers of potentially exposed people are sensible for testing and quarantine
gavreid
Pretty Words...
Here's the BBC arguing the point about the seemingly low level of infections that I raised at weekend. Again I'm not saying I agree with it before anyone gets their knickers in a twist...
Coronavirus: Is the UK in a better position than we think?
"The surveillance programme - run by the Office for National Statistics - did suggest they were rising. But there has to be heavy caveats around these findings - they are based on just 24 positive cases among nearly 30,000 people over the course of two weeks. Drawing conclusions from such smaller numbers is fraught with difficulties."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53656852
Coronavirus: Is the UK in a better position than we think?
"The surveillance programme - run by the Office for National Statistics - did suggest they were rising. But there has to be heavy caveats around these findings - they are based on just 24 positive cases among nearly 30,000 people over the course of two weeks. Drawing conclusions from such smaller numbers is fraught with difficulties."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53656852
It's an interesting theory, but I think all through this and now the problem has been a lack of anything like adequate testing levels in the community (and I'm being kind there) so we have and have had no real idea on the case levels. If you look at the death figures and take them as a percentage of the cases from the government data we have the mortality rate at around 15%, 20% if you take the suspected true number of deaths. This is clearly absolute nonsense ergo we have no idea of the case numbers now or in the past. The rest of it is therefore just speculation based on unsubstantiated data and if you were to build a model based on such data, then in any other scenario it wouldn't be accepted.
The government can carry on locking down local areas and jumping up and down about Muslims celebrating Eid or nasty Northerners not distancing in their own homes etc. all they want, but they are doing so based on the need to be seen to be doing something rather than any evidence that would stand up to scrutiny.
gavreid
Pretty Words...
Yes, testing is the heart of the problem.
I wonder if the numbers of asymptomatic infections is being over-estimated. Among tested cases it's a factor of about two but is assumed to be (much?) higher in the wider population (for the simple reason that if you don't feel ill you don't get tested,) but if it isn't that might explain a lot. That would be the case if the majority of asymptomatic people go on to develop symptoms within a short period of time, or else they become non-infectious quite rapidly.
mandryka
pfm Member
The continuing high number of deaths in the UK is interesting. I don’t know how relevant this is, but I think Britain has quite a low average life expectancy, independently of COVID. Brits may well be just not as fit and well as other countries.
davidsrsb
pfm Member
UK life expectancy is much better than Malaysia, where total deaths has just crept up to 125 from 9000 cases, with half the population. Even when a care home was infected weeks ago, there were few deaths.
This is strongly hinting that only the more serious cases are being counted in the UK
gavreid
Pretty Words...
"Coronavirus may be more easily transmitted in school and summer camp settings than previously understood, after the emergence of new details of outbreaks in the US state of Georgia and in Israel that have underscored the risks of school reopenings.
A report by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) into an outbreak at a summer camp in Georgia suggests children – even asymptomatic cases – may play an important role in community transmission of Covid-19.
The claim contradicts a number of earlier studies where the consensus appeared to be that children rarely transmit the virus between themselves or to other people."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...more-easily-schools-than-thought-report-warns
A report by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) into an outbreak at a summer camp in Georgia suggests children – even asymptomatic cases – may play an important role in community transmission of Covid-19.
The claim contradicts a number of earlier studies where the consensus appeared to be that children rarely transmit the virus between themselves or to other people."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...more-easily-schools-than-thought-report-warns
Sue Pertwee-Tyr
Accuphase all the way down
Compelling and rather salutary programme on BBC1 last night by the Van Tulliken brothers. Sobering assessment of the devastation that Covid can wreak across the whole body. Should be compulsory viewing for anybody inclined to think the risks are overstated and tempted to let their guard down.
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mandryka
pfm Member
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/uk-coronavirus-live-latest-updates-lockdown-a4517816.html
Test and Trace is 'improving all the time' but there's nothing we can do about bad memory
I must say I find this disappointing. First, I though that they were only looking for close contacts -
These are surely more easy to identify.
The brother in law example is silly, they can phone the brother in law.
The person on the bus seems seems more difficult, is the app supposed to help here? And why aren’t they just asking people to space out to 2m on busses?
But most strangely, there’s zero discussion of the most obvious failing of the Test and Trace system in theory - that people won’t want to grass up their friends to the system. I think the idea of asking close contacts to self isolate for two weeks even though they have no symptoms is “interesting”, but IMO without supporting them to self isolate, it’s unlikely to work. This is the distinctive feature of the UK system which makes the reliability of the app so essential and such a problem - we could well be making a rod for our own backs there.
Test and Trace is 'improving all the time' but there's nothing we can do about bad memory
I must say I find this disappointing. First, I though that they were only looking for close contacts -
These are surely more easy to identify.
The brother in law example is silly, they can phone the brother in law.
The person on the bus seems seems more difficult, is the app supposed to help here? And why aren’t they just asking people to space out to 2m on busses?
But most strangely, there’s zero discussion of the most obvious failing of the Test and Trace system in theory - that people won’t want to grass up their friends to the system. I think the idea of asking close contacts to self isolate for two weeks even though they have no symptoms is “interesting”, but IMO without supporting them to self isolate, it’s unlikely to work. This is the distinctive feature of the UK system which makes the reliability of the app so essential and such a problem - we could well be making a rod for our own backs there.
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