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Coronavirus - the new strain XX

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gavreid said:
We know the numbers are increasing for a start. A couple of weeks ago most of you claimed ignorance over the numbers
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Am I right to say that we don't know whether they were admitted because of covid symptoms, rather than being admitted for something else and then diagnosed with covid? I'm not clear about this.
 
mandryka said:
Am I right to say that we don't know whether they were admitted because of covid symptoms, rather than being admitted for something else and then diagnosed with covid. I'm not clear about this.
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80+% of people in hospital for covid are there for their covid. There's very little in hospital infection these days
 
gavreid said:
80+% of people in hospital for covid are there for their covid. There's very little in hospital infection these days
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Sure, it may not be acquired in hospital but some may have been admitted for other reasons, either showing no or extremely mild covid symptoms. It's not important, I just remember thinking that it's not totally clear. I think (but I haven't checked) the spreadsheet said "admitted with covid" , if that's right it's ambiguous, presumably deliberately so. But it may not be right, I'm too lazy to check!
 
mandryka said:
Sure, it may not be acquired in hospital but some may have been admitted for other reasons, either showing no or extremely mild covid symptoms. It's not important, I just remember thinking that it's not totally clear. I think (but I haven't checked) the spreadsheet said "admitted with covid" , if that's right it's ambiguous, presumably deliberately so. But it may not be right, I'm too lazy to check!
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That's was just propaganda from 6 weeks or so ago that's been put to bed
 
Dogberry said:
US judge orders hospital to administer anti-parasite drug invermectin to Covid ICU patient.
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UTTER madness! The IC 50 (half maximal inhibitory concentration) of Ivermectin versus Covid19 during the in vitro tests show that it would be toxic (lethal) to humans were it to be used as an anti Covid drug!
 
Sue Pertwee-Tyr said:
No, that’s not what I’m saying. I think the government will at some point decide not to release daily figures any more, and the media will just stop reporting. At which point, the general population will just go back to doing its thing and not trouble itself unduly. They may notice if a colleague, friend or family member succumbs, but otherwise unless there’s another massive surge people will not look too deeply.
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That's exactly how I understood your post. The undertone of the post was that you think it's a bad thing that at some point it'll have to be just 'business as usual'?
 
gavreid said:
Unfortunately being a right wing idiot is one of the qualifications accepted with the JD over there
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Such impartial credentials....
udge Howard is a member Ohio State Bar Association, Middletown Area Republican Club, Past President of the both the Butler County Bar Association and Mid-Miami Valley Bar Association. He has also served as former Regional Chair of the Butler County Republican Party, Chairman of the Butler County Bar Association’s Criminal Law Committee, and was a participant in the Lawyer to Lawyer Mentoring Program established by the Ohio Supreme Court.
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...not!
 
mandryka said:
As far as I know we don't know anything about the children in hospital other than that they received a covid diagnosis. We don't know how long they were admitted for, we don't know whether they were admitted partly because of some other condition, maybe an acute one, we don't know nuffink.
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No we don’t, but it is reasonable to suggest that they will not deviate significantly from population trends rather than assume they will come from the relatively small population of children with comorbidities compared to adults.
 
hc25036 said:
No we don’t, but it is reasonable to suggest that they will not deviate significantly from population trends rather than assume they will come from the relatively small population of children with comorbidities compared to adults.
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I wasn't sure about precisely that question in fact. And I wondered whether asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic covid was more common in young children - some more of them admitted for another reason and diagnosed after. I also wondered whether hospitals admit children more quickly.

In fact I'm not sure what the symptoms are in children, I don't know if ZOE has released anything about that. Just 30 seconds googling came up with Although COVID-19 in children is usually of short duration with low symptom burden in a Lancet paper. So I guess it's often unnoticed in them -- more grist to the mill - they come to hospital for something else and get a covid diagnosis there.

Illness duration and symptom profile in symptomatic UK school-aged children tested for SARS-CoV-2 - The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health

There are a lot of unknowns in the public domain.
 
mandryka said:
I wasn't sure about precisely that question in fact. And I wondered whether asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic covid was more common in young children. I also wondered whether hospitals admit children more quickly.

There are a lot of unknowns in the public domain.
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This guy (paediatrics, vaccines, maybe propaganda who knows) reckons “incidental positives” are much higher in children than in older patients:

https://twitter.com/apsmunro/status/1428728568339734529?s=21

(Haven’t read the articles he links to, so not inviting a cross-examination on them :))

Makes sense: older people more likely in general to have other things wrong with them of course, generally speaking; but since they’re also much, much more likely to get seriously sick with Covid than children they’re also more likely to be admitted *for* Covid.

As you suggest, complicated, lots of unknowns.
 
For a while in August, the Isle of Bute had one of the highest infection rates in the U.K. It looked like it might have been the influx of tourists into a small population but in fact public health have traced it to an interesting source. Bute Young Farmers held their annual jamboree on a day where exceptionally this year it rained heavily all day in the Meadows,11 August. The company running the bar tent announced record takings because everyone was inside drinking. It’s been traced as the source of a large number of cases.
 
Seeker_UK said:
That's exactly how I understood your post. The undertone of the post was that you think it's a bad thing that at some point it'll have to be just 'business as usual'?
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Then you’ve misunderstood the undertone. We all hope for a return to business as usual, but I fear our government is going to declare that prematurely, for political and economic reasons.

Covid is going to be endemic, so BAU will have to factor that in, and we know the annual 10-20k death toll from flu passes without much comment so that’s a fair indication of what society already tolerates. Whether the NHS can cope with combined flu/covid burden is another question but my guess is that if the combined figure is <50k annually, that’ll be accepted. We’re currently seeing an annual death toll for Covid running at around 100 per day, which is around 35k p/a and many people are behaving like it’s already over, so you probably have your answer there.
 
Sue Pertwee-Tyr said:
Then you’ve misunderstood the undertone. We all hope for a return to business as usual, but I fear our government is going to declare that prematurely, for political and economic reasons.

Covid is going to be endemic, so BAU will have to factor that in, and we know the annual 10-20k death toll from flu passes without much comment so that’s a fair indication of what society already tolerates. Whether the NHS can cope with combined flu/covid burden is another question but my guess is that if the combined figure is <50k annually, that’ll be accepted. We’re currently seeing an annual death toll for Covid running at around 100 per day, which is around 35k p/a and many people are behaving like it’s already over, so you probably have your answer there.
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I've picked you up on this before. The death toll from flu is not just tolerated. We have a growing vaccination programme, this year to include all under 16s and the over 50s, while PHE was tasked with operating a full surveillance programme. There is annual outrage over hospital overcrowding in the winter and a backlog of operations that has been growing since 2010.
 
It’s tolerated by the population because it happens every year and the government survives, every year. There’s a bit of tutting in the shires, but that’s about as far as it goes. So yes, that’s a BAU situation that is tolerated. And how dare you ‘pick me up’ about something that is a matter of opinion. Feel free to disagree, but get off that high horse and lose that air of moral superiority out of your tone.
 
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