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Coronavirus - the new strain XIX

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gavreid said:
I'm get about a 14 day doubling time on admissions matching the rise in cases. Vaccines haven't yet broken the link as far as I can see...
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You haven't published the basis for understanding what you have fitted and how. Below is an alternative view with all of the details to reproduce the analysis and see if you agree or not:
You can get 14 days if you pick the most recent data and take the first fitted point from the very low and the second point from the very high. On a longer view as above there seems to not be an indication of statistically significant recent acceleration of the 29 days best fit to 14 days. The 29 days is loge(2)/(the exponential 0.0242 of the fitted curve). The data on vaccine effectiveness against Delta suggests we should not be seeing a significant acceleration in admissions as they increasingly come from Delta.

However I am DEFINITELY NOT saying your 14 days is wrong. But other answers are possible from the data we have.

Would you reveal what data set you used (UK or England, for example), what day was day 0, and how many points you fitted to your exponential curve.

The analysis of noisy data is uncertain and it is IMHO unwise to ignore the uncertainty in either optimistic or pessimistic analysis and insist that one answer is definitive. It is essential to deal with the likely range of possibilities.
 
mandryka said:
Is N really the same as it was in 2020, or in the first quarter of 2021? What I’m suggesting is (but I haven’t done the work) is that vaccination is already working as hoped on Hosp - if not Cases.
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It's less but not as much as you might think. At the end of September cases were running at about 8000 per day and hospitalisations at around 300, whereas we've been seeing 200 hospitalisation from roughly the same number of confirmed cases.
 
John Phillips said:
You haven't published the basis for understanding what you have fitted and how. Below is an alternative view with all of the details to reproduce the analysis and see if you agree or not:
You can get 14 days if you pick the most recent data and take the first fitted point from the very low and the second point from the very high. On a longer view as above there seems to not be an indication of statistically significant recent acceleration of the 29 days best fit to 14 days. The 29 days is loge(2)/(the exponential 0.0242 of the fitted curve). The data on vaccine effectiveness against Delta suggests we should not be seeing a significant acceleration in admissions as they increasingly come from Delta.

However I am DEFINITELY NOT saying your 14 days is wrong. But other answers are possible from the data we have.

Would you reveal what data set you used (UK or England, for example), what day was day 0, and how many points you fitted to your exponential curve.

The analysis of noisy data is uncertain and it is IMHO unwise to ignore the uncertainty in either optimistic or pessimistic analysis and insist that one answer is definitive. It is essential to deal with the likely range of possibilities.
Click to expand...

If you've been following the thread I've not attempted to fit the data (just because it raises these kinds of arguments, which detract from the real issue). I laid down the yellow line with a doubling time of 20 days to guide the eye a couple of weeks ago and superimposed the data as they've come through, the current rate is certainly faster than that.
 
U.K. Biobank are further testing those who gave a positive antibody test on their home test kits and who had been vaccinated. The secondary testing will reveal if the antibodies are to the vaccine or through infection.
 
I’m trying to reply to flapland but it looks like that thread is locked so am putting it here.

You were right. I had to use both the pin-pick devices to get close to the required amount. As I am on blood thinning meds I didn’t think it would be problem. Normally I only have to look at something sharp to start bleeding but on demand... Maybe next time I will use a clean knife to make the nick, as my contact rang me whilst I was doing the do presumably to check that I hadn’t passed out during the procedure. The docs said there would be a ‘straw’ if I was having problems but there wasn’t so ended up having to scrape the congealed stuff off into the container to make up the volume. It seems like a flaw to me.

https://pinkfishmedia.net/forum/threads/coronavirus-the-new-strain-xviii.254436/page-86#post-4385287
 
mandryka said:
If I understand things correctly the rate should decline as the number of fully vaccinated people increase

Where

Hosp= N*Cases​

the N should reduce. It should be visible in historical data by now.

That’s what I want you to track!
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This analysis can be done statistically with current data although I think it would be better with unpublished individual data. The graph below plots N in your equation versus time.
I often see the idea of breaking the link between cases and consequences such as hospitalizations discussed as though it were a binary matter. However in reality it is continuous. I think the graph shows a significant weakening of this link, although I also think this needs to get better if we are to declare the link "broken" - at least to a sufficient extent for comfort.

There is a similar curve for N in deaths = N*cases, which shows a very significant weakening of the link.
 
TalYWaun said:
I’m trying to reply to flapland but it looks like that thread is locked so am putting it here.

You were right. I had to use both the pin-pick devices to get close to the required amount. As I am on blood thinning meds I didn’t think it would be problem. Normally I only have to look at something sharp to start bleeding but on demand... Maybe next time I will use a clean knife to make the nick, as my contact rang me whilst I was doing the do presumably to check that I hadn’t passed out during the procedure. The docs said there would be a ‘straw’ if I was having problems but there wasn’t so ended up having to scrape the congealed stuff off into the container to make up the volume. It seems like a flaw to me.

https://pinkfishmedia.net/forum/threads/coronavirus-the-new-strain-xviii.254436/page-86#post-4385287
Click to expand...

I found the following helped:

A few star jumps;

Wash hands in warm/hot water;

Rib hands together vigorously;

Squeeze finger tightly just below the chosen stab point (like a tourniquet);

Stab with enthusiasm.

Result - blood in the tube, all over the kitchen table, down my shirt and over the envelope!
 
TalYWaun said:
I’m trying to reply to flapland but it looks like that thread is locked so am putting it here.

You were right. I had to use both the pin-pick devices to get close to the required amount. As I am on blood thinning meds I didn’t think it would be problem. Normally I only have to look at something sharp to start bleeding but on demand... Maybe next time I will use a clean knife to make the nick, as my contact rang me whilst I was doing the do presumably to check that I hadn’t passed out during the procedure. The docs said there would be a ‘straw’ if I was having problems but there wasn’t so ended up having to scrape the congealed stuff off into the container to make up the volume. It seems like a flaw to me.

https://pinkfishmedia.net/forum/threads/coronavirus-the-new-strain-xviii.254436/page-86#post-4385287
Click to expand...

My last one was a bit better but I did pin prick the side of my finger which seemed to flow more. You do though end up sort of scraping it in even then.

Its not perfect but much cheaper than dragging people in for a actual proper blood test.
 
What happens when you don’t close borders ‘cos you want a trade deal.

E909-DFD3-DC8-C-478-E-A1-E1-470-EECDB0-CA1.jpg
 
John Phillips said:
This analysis can be done statistically with current data although I think it would be better with unpublished individual data. The graph below plots N in your equation versus time.
I often see the idea of breaking the link between cases and consequences such as hospitalizations discussed as though it were a binary matter. However in reality it is continuous. I think the graph shows a significant weakening of this link, although I also think this needs to get better if we are to declare the link "broken" - at least to a sufficient extent for comfort.

There is a similar curve for N in deaths = N*cases, which shows a very significant weakening of the link.
Click to expand...

Excellent! That helps me understand a lot better. The thing that matters is that dN/dt is negative -- which should happen if there are no nasty surprises with variants.
 
Colin L said:
What happens when you don’t close borders ‘cos you want a trade deal.

E909-DFD3-DC8-C-478-E-A1-E1-470-EECDB0-CA1.jpg
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You're not being very fair there. I mean, borders were even less closed in France, Canada and Germany. But it is probably a stroke of bad luck for Britain that we got hit first (Sean would say good luck for the Tories I expect . . .)

To some extent there's a silver lining in the cloud because it has spurned on the government's vaccination programme -- the Tories have done a stalwart job there. And really all it has meant politically so far is that Freedom Day has been delayed for a month . . . no big political deal really.
 
mandryka said:
Excellent! That helps me understand a lot better. The thing that matters is that dN/dt is negative -- which should happen if there are no nasty surprises with variants.
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These kinds of analyses depend strongly on how you handle the lag between cases numbers and hospitalisations. See the indie Sage presentation from last Friday at around 8 minutes in.
 
Colin L said:
What happens when you don’t close borders ‘cos you want a trade deal.
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We are heading exponentially into the third wave while India and Europe are coming down. It’s ripping in Edinburgh out of nowhere with cases above any previous peak. It’s younger people and predominantly males- I’m guessing communal football watching is the source. We are about to see if the vaccines can stop the dam from bursting!

wyKTy08.jpg



hMrBvVL.jpg
 
TheDecameron said:
We are heading exponentially into the third wave while India and Europe are coming down. It’s ripping in Edinburgh out of nowhere with cases above any previous peak. It’s younger people and predominantly males- I’m guessing communal football watching is the source. We are about to see if the vaccines can stop the dam from bursting!

wyKTy08.jpg



hMrBvVL.jpg
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Yep, I posted as much yesterday, my son is self isolating after one of his mate’s contracted coronavirus following a stag do in Edinburgh at the weekend.
 
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