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Coronavirus - the new strain XI

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Laura Kuenssberg on 6 o’clock news blaming the governments failure to deal with Covid on public ‘fatigue’. Nothing to do with government incompetence, mixed messages and not listening to advice then?
 
ks.234 said:
Laura Kuenssberg on 6 o’clock news blaming the governments failure to deal with Covid on public ‘fatigue’. Nothing to do with government incompetence, mixed messages and not listening to advice then?
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Cummings will have text her to say that before she went on.
 
The Moon is in a Waxing Gibbous phase and the Aries-Libra polarity is a relationship axis, where Aries represents “self,” and Libra represents “other.” Where Aries is about self-assertion, Libra is about compromise.

Does that mean I can meet up with friends in a cafe after 10 in a group of 666 or more/less/fewer?

Stephen
 
ks.234 said:
Laura Kuenssberg on 6 o’clock news blaming the governments failure to deal with Covid on public ‘fatigue’. Nothing to do with government incompetence, mixed messages and not listening to advice then?
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Fatigue-

kUC140K.jpg


Stan’s out and about while Boris threatens flouters with fines.
 
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The latest swab survey suggests that R might decreasing.

The lead author of the study, Professor Paul Elliott, said that the research shows “some early evidence that the growth of new cases may have slowed, suggesting efforts to control the infection are working.”

However, he explained, “the prevalence of infection is the highest that we have recorded to date. This reinforces the need for protective measures to limit the spread of the disease and the public’s adherence to these, which will be vital to minimise further significant illness and loss of life from Covid-19.”

I think the issue maybe to do with the survey itself, they write to you and then you register to take part, so it has that element of self selection. Only half of those selected accept. I still think they're undersampling the hotspots and therefore overweighting the colds, as I argued a couple of months ago.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...08865dbde1120d#block-5f7564d58f08865dbde1120d
 
gavreid said:
Only half of those selected accept
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I design surveys to expect 50% participation, so I invite double the people

gavreid said:
undersampling the hotspots and therefore overweighting the colds
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it is random survey, and so shouldn't focus on either. It is useful to understand the spread in the general population.

I would expect this survey to show R as lower than others.
 
gintonic said:
I design surveys to expect 50% participation, so I invite double the people



it is random survey, and so shouldn't focus on either. It is useful to understand the spread in the general population.

I would expect this survey to show R as lower than others.
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You need to sample sufficiently to record the peaks, just like converting analogue music to digital music. 80 000 samples is approximately 1 per 1000 but at least 1 per 200 are infected presently in the hotspots. Undersampling has the effect of running a big smoothing function over the data.
 
gavreid said:
You need to sample sufficiently to record the peaks, just like converting analogue music to digital music. 80 000 samples is approximately 1 per 1000 but at least 1 per 200 are infected presently in the hotspots. Undersampling has the effect of running a big smoothing function over the data.
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yes
 
An intrinsic qualification for being a politician in the 21st century is that you have to think you're better than everyone else and above the law!
 
ks.234 said:
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Stanley explained that he ‘wasn’t up to speed with the regulations’. He previously stated he would keep going to the pub despite ‘rules’ as indeed his son said at the time- ‘that he’d keep shaking hands with people’ in flat contradiction of his own public guidance at the time.
One might say that the Johnsons are rule breakers not takers.
 
gavreid said:
The latest swab survey suggests that R might decreasing.

The lead author of the study, Professor Paul Elliott, said that the research shows “some early evidence that the growth of new cases may have slowed, suggesting efforts to control the infection are working.”

However, he explained, “the prevalence of infection is the highest that we have recorded to date. This reinforces the need for protective measures to limit the spread of the disease and the public’s adherence to these, which will be vital to minimise further significant illness and loss of life from Covid-19.”

I think the issue maybe to do with the survey itself, they write to you and then you register to take part, so it has that element of self selection. Only half of those selected accept. I still think they're undersampling the hotspots and therefore overweighting the colds, as I argued a couple of months ago.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...08865dbde1120d#block-5f7564d58f08865dbde1120d
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Sadly, it’s being met with some scepticism:
https://twitter.com/bristoliver/status/1311540989362872325?s=21
 
You've just gotta love surveys, the statistics they generate, and then how many different explanations you can attribute...
 
Seanm said:
Sadly, it’s being met with some scepticism:
https://twitter.com/bristoliver/status/1311540989362872325?s=21
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The problem is such an average is pretty meaningless because the virus spreads from the hotspots. It's not like it spreads into the low areas and dries up like water bursting a dam. When there's more infected it's important to grow the sample size (and test many more negatives to get at the positives,) which they've not had the capacity to do.
 
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