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By how much should the Bank of England increase interest rates in a traditional monetarist economy

The government would be better off accelerating the move to renewables or non fossil-fuel power generation so as a country we're less vulnerable to shocks in the oil and gas markets. The last major shock rippled through the UK for a couple of decades from the '70s and we're still feeling the consequences of the political repercussions. As oil and gas resources dwindle, these shocks are only going to get worse.
 
Yes agree there are structural (supply side!) policies the govt should be doing to improve the long term outlook but the Bank seem to have one hand tied behind their back by their remit and the nature of the current bout of inflation.
 
I think you're asking the question you want to answer rather than the question I'm asking. So if you were going to predict what UK monetary and economic policy will look like in the next couple of years what would your prediction be? That the BoE and Govt will suddenly subscribe to MMT and do the things I suspect you think they should? I personally think that's unlikely.
I thought MMT was off topic? The BoE already does subscribe to MMT, because the government does issue currency. The only part that it not MMT is claiming that tax funds government spending, which is monetarism, not the BoE
 
I thought MMT was off topic? The BoE already does subscribe to MMT, because the government does issue currency. The only part that it not MMT is claiming that tax funds government spending, which is monetarism, not the BoE
So MMT just says that central banks issue currency with no assumptions about anything else? It seems so trivial that I can't see what all the discussion is about then.
 
So MMT just says that central banks issue currency with no assumptions about anything else? It seems so trivial that I can't see what all the discussion is about then.
Thought you didn’t want to discuss MMT? Yes, MMT says that government issues currency. No, it does not say it should do so without assumptions about anything else.
 
We've kinda already covered this, Jim. It's more that our governments are wedded to this ideology, so looking at what tools do they have in their box, and what will they be likely to do with them?

Again, I doubt that's the correct approach because we are faced with a choice of PM between a glove-puppet and a chancer. The problem is that their toolbox omits the tools they'd need. One has faith in 'cut taxes' the other is more vague, hoping inscrutability will be taked for wisdom. Why try to mindread a muppet?

The changes to interest rate, income tax, etc, are all missing the point. Why discuss if you want to be shot or hung? Better to focus on how to survive and become well.

The *specific* question needs an answer like "however much they fancy *IF*" and then explain the need for other changes because simply changing the base rate in isolation is largely irrelevant if not damaging.

Madness is doing the same thing again and again and expecting a different outcome.
 
I think you're asking the question you want to answer rather than the question I'm asking. So if you were going to predict what UK monetary and economic policy will look like in the next couple of years what would your prediction be? That the BoE and Govt will suddenly subscribe to MMT and do the things I suspect you think they should? I personally think that's unlikely.

So do I. But given the potential PMs being selected by < 0.5% of us I have no idea how spectacularly they will mess things up even more. Even if I was a mindreader I'd probably find Truss has no output to read! And Sunak is using vaugness as a way to dodge being caught out.

Both are putting us in the situation of bringing a knife to a gunfight. That's what 'conventional wisdom' here does. Then buries its mistakes later, blaming any victims who are still alive.
 
One thing that might help address the coming storm might be tax cuts. But rather than those proposed by Truss, raising the tax threshold to the average wage, or mean wage, which ever is higher, so that anyone earning less than £25,971, pays no income tax. That would put more money where it is needed and stimulate consumer spending which will stimulate the private sector.

Problem solved!
 
The equation MV=PT originates from classical economics in the 19th century. In a given period the money supply, multiplied by the number of times it is used, equals the price level multiplied by an index of the quantity of goods and services produced. In other words, the total value of money that changes hands (MV) is the same as the money value of goods and services that changes hands (PT).
Close, T is the actual number of transactions rather than an index, and P is the transaction weighted average price of those transactions. Therefore the equation forms a trivial identity of two equal numbers but split into their interesting components. Eg. If there's £10 of money in the economy and it's spent twice a year (velocity of 2) then it can support 2 transactions a year of £10 each, 4 of £5 each etc. (£10/£5 being the price of those transactions.)

T at some point became Q to fit in with the income/expenditure/output model of the economy and it still holds conceptually so I don't have an issue with that as long as the price level P is defined to match the way Q is calculated.

It's worth noting here that Q represents real output while PQ represents nominal output (think nominal GDP). This is why you will hear a lot of talk about targeting nominal GDP rather than real, as that's the RHS of the equation. To actually target either component requires some control of the other. Eg. If you want to increase real output (so what we actually consume rather than just its value at current price levels that fluctuate) then it's not much use to increase M if P then goes up the same. If you could keep P the same though then you will increase real output. Unfortunately P is determined by markets so you can't really control it (price controls just leading to market distortions and supply/demand imbalances and prolonged inefficient disequilibrium). So the balance is really letting the market and government combined production keep Q at a desired and attainable rate of growth and managing M to keep P steady. (Note that this isn't saying that govt spending should be reduced, that ties into crowding out which is outside the scope of this basic equation. Also should mention, another development of the early equation was to change P to inflation rather than price level, I think Q became GDP growth for the units to balance.)

So you can see that if one of the variables changes, say V increases, then money is being spent more often and that will be reflected in either or both of a rise in the price level and and a rise in goods and services produced.

Monetarists use an assumption, that V (the number of times money changes hands) and T (the quantity of goods and services) are fixed. This is because they assume that an economy is always at full employment. So an increase in the money supply will only have one effect, it will increase the price level. Hence, reduce the money supply to reduce inflation.
They don't assume V is fixed but that it is measurable, therefore at any time the authorities can know what money supply is needed to control inflation. They certainly don't assume T (or Q) is fixed as GDP growth fluctuates, it's about managing M to keep inflation low. Nor do they assume full employment as there is a natural level of unemployment in the system (eg people moving job or companies/industries contracting to keep the economy efficient). This was before the NAIRU came into being but is a similar concept without the inflation expectations element.


Of course, monetarist economies always have mass unemployment so the assumption is invalid and therefore monetarism is invalid, because once you allow for goods and services to be variable, then an increase in money supply increases output. This is typically the case where there is unemployment. The government increases the money supply / issues currency to employ unemployed people, they spend their wages in Tesco who sell more goods so need to employ more people and so on. The money supply is increased and inflation is not the result.
I'm not sure where the "always suffers from mass unemployment" comes from. The natural rate is not "mass" if the economy is efficient and at equilibrium. Unemployment grows when there are shocks and monetarists say it's important to limit contraction in the money supply as this can make output (and employment) fall more than otherwise. Monetarism is about managing the economy with awareness of money supply and inflation not about minimising public spending.

I think there is some conflation of traditional monetarism with other theories of free market economics in the criticisms I've read on here. The reason that the equation isn't so useful is that the authorities only control a narrow measure of the money supply, but credit expansion also causes inflation. Also that V may not be stable or as easily measured as thought.

There also seems to be some assumption in the above that the government just has to increase spending to reach full employment, but there's no mention about what other inputs are needed to produce something. Eg. A nurse requires years of training, and equipment and a hospital when they are actually working. But a hospital building program increases demand for building materials and medical equipment so causes inflation. If there are no new resources available for these new workers to do something useful, will they just be diverted to counting pigeons in Trafalgar Square like the famous example from the New Deal? That will get unemployment down but won't increase wellbeing in the economy.
 
One thing that might help address the coming storm might be tax cuts. But rather than those proposed by Truss, raising the tax threshold to the average wage, or mean wage, which ever is higher, so that anyone earning less than £25,971, pays no income tax. That would put more money where it is needed and stimulate consumer spending which will stimulate the private sector.

Problem solved!

I’ve always been an advocate of this, it’s a very simple way for lower earners to keep more of what they earn. In fairness, it was the lib dems who pushed this onto the Tory’s and they’ve stayed with it. Just look at the tax free personal allowance now compared with 2010. Increasing it further now would be a good policy IMHO.
 
One thing that might help address the coming storm might be tax cuts. But rather than those proposed by Truss, raising the tax threshold to the average wage, or mean wage, which ever is higher, so that anyone earning less than £25,971, pays no income tax. That would put more money where it is needed and stimulate consumer spending which will stimulate the private sector.

Problem solved!
That's the recession problem solved but what about the inflation problem? True it's currently primarily externally driven, but adding domestic demand to the equation will drive it even higher surely?
 
That's the recession problem solved but what about the inflation problem? True it's currently primarily externally driven, but adding domestic demand to the equation will drive it even higher surely?
Well the inflation is currently caused by external factors, so not automatically going to be driven higher by internal ones if those internal ones don't themselves drive inflation. And as much of the problem is around affordability of basic living costs for the lower paid, it doesn't feel to me that taking them largely out of tax will drive up demand to any inflationary degree.
 
I’ve always been an advocate of this, it’s a very simple way for lower earners to keep more of what they earn. In fairness, it was the lib dems who pushed this onto the Tory’s and they’ve stayed with it. Just look at the tax free personal allowance now compared with 2010. Increasing it further now would be a good policy IMHO.
Yes. I would however like to add the big caveat that my post was said very much tongue in cheek as I do not know enough about economics to dismiss the notion that there may be good economic reasons why raising the threshold is not a good idea.

PS. I never use smilies and I only ever use an exclamation mark when I am not being entirely serious.

PPS. I’m still working out what all the other punctuation marks are
 
That's the recession problem solved but what about the inflation problem? True it's currently primarily externally driven, but adding domestic demand to the equation will drive it even higher surely?
Why? Surely the more people who have an income that meets the prices of essentials, the less the inflation? Inflation is just when prices rise above peoples capacity to pay those prices?

Yes, the value of the numbers that get transacted will go higher, but so what, the worst that will happen is that the price of dollars for us will go up. But a great number of transactions are done by trade, so the cost of buying dollars is relatively low.

Besides, whatever the price of dollars, it is lower than the price of misery to peoples lives
 
I love the idea of an explanation mark, could be very useful, is it the grammar equivalent of mansplaining?
Can’t even blame it on predictive text. When I read back I read what I I think I’ve written and miss obvious spelling mistakes. Spelling, pah!

What words mean is important. ‘Literally’ does not mean ‘really, really bigly’, there are lots of other words to describe a thing that is more important than another thing, but ‘literally’ is not one of them.
 
Can’t even blame it on predictive text. When I read back I read what I I think I’ve written and miss obvious spelling mistakes. Spelling, pah!

What words mean is important. ‘Literally’ does not mean ‘really, really bigly’, there are lots of other words to describe a thing that is more important than another thing, but ‘literally’ is not one of them.
I’ve just realised that a big ballon is ‘literally’ smaller than a big one.
 
Why? Surely the more people who have an income that meets the prices of essentials, the less the inflation? Inflation is just when prices rise above peoples capacity to pay those prices?

Yes, the value of the numbers that get transacted will go higher, but so what, the worst that will happen is that the price of dollars for us will go up. But a great number of transactions are done by trade, so the cost of buying dollars is relatively low.

Besides, whatever the price of dollars, it is lower than the price of misery to peoples lives
I'll not say any more but you might want to take offline with SP-T or one of the other posters coming from your angle to ensure consistent messaging ;)
 
Well the inflation is currently caused by external factors, so not automatically going to be driven higher by internal ones if those internal ones don't themselves drive inflation. And as much of the problem is around affordability of basic living costs for the lower paid, it doesn't feel to me that taking them largely out of tax will drive up demand to any inflationary degree.
Yeah fair point I was thinking that higher total demand will drive further inflation if it already exists (so capacity has been reached) but hadn't thought that a. we may not be at capacity in domestically produced goods and services (although lower participation levels in the labour market and hence low unemployment is limiting any further capacity for output growth, but this may be tempered by falling demand due to higher spending on energy, food basics etc) and b. marginal increases in domestic demand for globally priced goods will have a lower impact on their prices.

So I think the idea has legs, it might lead to higher inflation just not much compared to a more "typical" scenario. Maybe Truss has hit the nail on the head with this one I was veering towards Sunak's take on inflation ;)
 


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