Coronavirus - the new strain XX

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

But you did and you failed to grasp that this is in addition to the 'flu. so at the moment that is 60,000 deaths on top of what we 'all used to living with'

I don’t think he did. But my suspicion is that we ‘live with’ c20k flu deaths a year, because we aren’t reminded of the count every day. And once the media stop reporting daily, or weekly, or cumulative Covid deaths, the public will not trouble themselves over the numbers further. So in that sense, we will ‘live with’ whatever the numbers are when it drops off the radar. So we should watch for any indication that the media intends to stop reporting these, and ask ourselves why it has decided that.

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

You reduce people’s expectations about NHS provision for elective procedures.

and cancer, heart disease, kidney disease, chronic pain etc etc. It's all fine until you need it. I can't even get a routine blood test at my local GP

I never said it was fine, I’m suggesting that it’s an strategy which may work as far as covid response is concerned, may be commensurate with conservative values, and may be sellable to the public.

Could you please specify which conservative value you are referring to?

I’m not going to put words into mandryka’s mouth, but relevant broader Conservative values include;

Small state - ie NHS to provide a ‘base level’ service only, all other services to be provided by the market.
Self reliance - people take responsibility for their own healthcare.
Minimum support/indulgence for the ‘undeserving’ - those who can’t afford to do as above probably don’t deserve it.

 

[Seanm]

Fully vaccinated adults can harbour virus levels as high as unvaccinated people if infected with the Delta variant, according to a sweeping analysis of UK data, which supports the idea that hitting the threshold for herd immunity is unlikely.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-delta-can-match-virus-levels-of-unvaccinated

New study, but it’s still the third time in as many weeks that we’ve had this bombshell dropped on us. This article more responsible than most in that it includes the following very important information:

“The implications of this on transmission remain unclear, the researchers have cautioned. “We don’t yet know how much transmission can happen from people who get Covid-19 after being vaccinated – for example, they may have high levels of virus for shorter periods of time,” said Sarah Walker, a professor of medical statistics and epidemiology at the University of Oxford.”

That’s maybe making too little of it. For those worrying about this kind of thing I can recommend following Muge Cevik on Twitter. Here’s her most succinct attempt to contextualise and explain the significance of this viral load revelation, from last time:

“Even if viral load may be the same, vaccinated people who become infected are less likely to be infectious than unvaccinated bc vaccines reduce virus shedding time, symptomatic infection, and the presence of immune response will suppress the viable virus.”

https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1423601882933698564?s=21

 

[Seanm]

Given this latest information coupled with the increased transmissible of Delta, I am really surprised to see the number of infections in the UK hovering around the 25-30k. I realise the little COVID spreaders who we used to refer to as our children in yonder-years are not rammed 30 to a classroom at the moment but are there any other reason why we are not in the 100k and rising scenario as I and many others predicted by now?

To be blunt, there’s a lot of misinformation around, not least about the capacity of certain scientists to predict the future in a situation of great uncertainty.

 

[Cav]

But you did and you failed to grasp that this is in addition to the 'flu. s

No, and no. Your comprehension of the written word is lacking.

 

[hc25036]

New study, but it’s still the third time in as many weeks that we’ve had this bombshell dropped on us. This article more responsible than most in that it includes the following very important information:

“The implications of this on transmission remain unclear, the researchers have cautioned. “We don’t yet know how much transmission can happen from people who get Covid-19 after being vaccinated – for example, they may have high levels of virus for shorter periods of time,” said Sarah Walker, a professor of medical statistics and epidemiology at the University of Oxford.”

That’s maybe making too little of it. For those worrying about this kind of thing I can recommend following Muge Cevik on Twitter. Here’s her most succinct attempt to contextualise and explain the significance of this viral load revelation, from last time:

“Even if viral load may be the same, vaccinated people who become infected are less likely to be infectious than unvaccinated bc vaccines reduce virus shedding time, symptomatic infection, and the presence of immune response will suppress the viable virus.”

https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1423601882933698564?s=21

Read that thread and there seems to me to be an invalid assumption that any virus that is shed has already met antibodies - one of the obviously expert comments talks about ‘virus coated in nAb’ (that’s neutralising antibodies). As Debs and I have pointed out in this thread, vaccination increases IgG levels (the antibodies) and IgG is not found in the mouth, nose and throat. So virus shedding is less in vaccinated people, but early on in the infection they are likely to be as infective as non-vaccinated people for transmission via spit, snot and mucus….

 

[gavreid]

Sticking to reality, the NY Times is running with this piece on Israel - I can only see the preamble (paywall)

Israel, Once the Model for Beating Covid, Faces New Surge of Infections
One of the most vaccinated societies, Israel now has one of the highest infection rates in the world, raising questions about the vaccine’s efficacy.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/18/world/middleeast/israel-virus-infections-booster.html

And the BBC for context

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-58245285

 

[mandryka]

I’m not going to put words into mandryka’s mouth, but relevant broader Conservative values include;

Small state - ie NHS to provide a ‘base level’ service only, all other services to be provided by the market.
Self reliance - people take responsibility for their own healthcare.
Minimum support/indulgence for the ‘undeserving’ - those who can’t afford to do as above probably don’t deserve it.

It's minimum state and minimum redistribution that I was thinking of, but everything you say is relevant. Thanks.

 

[Seanm]

Read that thread and there seems to me to be an invalid assumption that any virus that is shed has already met antibodies - one of the obviously expert comments talks about ‘virus coated in nAb’ (that’s neutralising antibodies). As Debs and I have pointed out in this thread, vaccination increases IgG levels (the antibodies) and IgG is not found in the mouth, nose and throat. So virus shedding is less in vaccinated people, but early on in the infection they are likely to be as infective as non-vaccinated people for transmission via spit, snot and mucus….

It’s a discussion between many experts and lay people (and experts in different fields) and if you follow it you’re going to encounter some assumptions: don’t try to read it as if it were a peer reviewed paper. The explanation in question comes from a well-respected virologist and simply adds to the point made by the scientist quoted in the article linked to by Gav. The point is that viral load =\= transmissibility and it’s an important one that should be stressed in the context of scary headlines.

 

[hc25036]

Thanks for your advice not to read a tweet as if it was a peer reviewed paper!

 

[Seanm]

Sticking to reality, the NY Times is running with this piece on Israel - I can only see the preamble (paywall)

Israel, Once the Model for Beating Covid, Faces New Surge of Infections
One of the most vaccinated societies, Israel now has one of the highest infection rates in the world, raising questions about the vaccine’s efficacy.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/18/world/middleeast/israel-virus-infections-booster.html

And the BBC for context

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-58245285

Gav, how about you at least stick to articles you’ve at least skimmed, you’ll have a much better claim on reality. There’s lots of scary stuff on waning immunity from Israel and lots of it is very sketchy indeed, as you might remember from the wandering-denominator report that you amplified.

There is better evidence for waning immunity than the Israel studies - in fact from the report you’ve already pointed us to this morning. This FT article offers an account, with useful context and qualifications.

https://www.ft.com/content/49641651-e10a-45f6-a7cc-8b8c7b7a9710

If I get the chance I’ll read the report itself, because at first glance it actually looks like it includes lots of good news, for instance on Moderna and the protection offered by vaccination + infection.

 

[Seanm]

Thanks for your advice not to read a tweet as if it was a peer reviewed paper!

You are getting extremely thin-skinned, if I may say. The advice seemed necessary because you seemed to be pouncing on a response to a Tweet as if it invalidated the point being responded to. Not how you get the most out of that kind of exchange.

 

[k90tour]

Perhaps "balance" was not the right term.

There are a range of views, which I think is good, but more importantly, we do have experts posting interesting and useful information.

A fully balanced thread (and that would be a very subjective view!) on a HiFi forum is extremely unlikely!

Who are these experts?

 

[gavreid]

Gav, how about you at least stick to articles you’ve at least skimmed, you’ll have a much better claim on reality.

Does it not fit with your narrative?

 

[Seanm]

Does it not fit with your narrative?

How would either of us know, given that neither of us can read it? In that sense it fits well enough with my narrative of you not reading or understanding at least half of the very low grade information you’re filling up this thread with. On waning immunity itself, let’s take some time to read today’s report on the vaccines, which certainly supersedes the small studies and rumours coming out of Israel.

 

[russel]

Thanks for your advice not to read a tweet as if it was a peer reviewed paper!

Sean has only just discovered science please excuse his youthful exuberance.

 

[mandryka]

Given this latest information coupled with the increased transmissible of Delta, I am really surprised to see the number of infections in the UK hovering around the 25-30k.

No, you're confusing positive tests and cases.

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

Hospitalisations seem to have plateaued lately, though, and deaths aren’t rising alarmingly, which does suggest a degree of stabilisation in case numbers, doesn’t it?

 

[mandryka]

Prevention of infection wanes over time, from ZOE

 

[mandryka]

Hospitalisations seem to have plateaued lately, though, and deaths aren’t rising alarmingly, which does suggest a degree of stabilisation in case numbers, doesn’t it?

Yes -- and that's why everyone says R is about 1.