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Coronavirus - the new strain XVIII

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Let’s be clear. There’s no evidence that the new Indian variant is more transmissible than the Kent strain/any other one or that it’s vaccine resistant. Even if it was slightly resistant, there’s a good chance they will still be quite effective and we’ve already been told vaccines can be tinkered within months. Most scientists are of the view that there’s nothing in the data to hold back on the May 17 re-opening.

We’ve seen the same fears about the Brazilian and South African variant and they’ve not come to fruition. The way I see it is we could spend the rest of our lives worrying about new variants and the natural fact that all viruses mutate. That’s an argument for never coming out of lockdowns and realistically that just can’t be an option.

We’ve got to open up fully and live with this virus and this time there should be no going back.
 
gavreid said:
That's the official message but at the same time there is also no evidence that the vaccines do work. There are already signs that B.1.617.2 is out-competing the Kent variant in the hotspots - London, Bolton, Blackburn. Again, it's averages across the country vs peaks. Clearly the spread of 1.1.7 is being controlled both by the vaccines but also the control measures. It makes a great deal of sense to delay 17th May by a month and to review the scene then.
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I wonder if the low uptake of Covid-19 vaccine in certain communities, such as the Indian / Pakistani / Bangladeshi communities has improved (https://www.understandingsociety.ac...rity-groups-less-likely-to-take-covid-vaccine). Higher transmissibility, low uptake of vaccine and community size could account for these hotspots rather than effectiveness of the vaccine.
 
Bjork67 said:
Or a taxidermist.
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If they are, tell 'em to get stuffed.

badum-tish.jpg
 
Seeker_UK said:
I wonder if the low uptake of Covid-19 vaccine in certain communities, such as the Indian / Pakistani / Bangladeshi communities has improved (https://www.understandingsociety.ac...rity-groups-less-likely-to-take-covid-vaccine). Low uptake of vaccine and community size could account for these hotspots rather than effectiveness of the vaccine.
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It's early days. Sefton also btw. Interesting because case numbers were lower in the Liverpool area. I guess 617.2 is driving the increase in cases that we're seeing this week, the other data are probably from 10 days ago and earlier now.
 
gavreid said:
That's the official message but at the same time there is also no evidence that the vaccines do work. There are already signs that B.1.617.2 is out-competing the Kent variant in the hotspots - London, Bolton, Blackburn. Again, it's averages across the country vs peaks.
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Not exactly sure how long the India strain has been in the UK, but it seems to me cases may be rising, but hospitalisations and deaths are not (or at least, not yet) following suit, which might be thought an early indication that the vaccines are having the required effect.
 
Bjork67 said:
Do you work in the funeral business Deej? Or a taxidermist.
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I liked the joke in the old Colditz Story film where the Germans ask for volunteers to help with the German economy. The French Officer volunteers, much to everybody's surprise. So what did you do for a trade? He replies 'Coffin maker'.
 
Sue Pertwee-Tyr said:
Not exactly sure how long the India strain has been in the UK, but it seems to me cases may be rising, but hospitalisations and deaths are not (or at least, not yet) following suit, which might be thought an early indication that the vaccines are having the required effect.
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The numbers are far to small yet to see anything in hospitalisations or deaths. That's a dead end.
 
It's been around for a few weeks and, yes, it's spreading fast in some pockets. Do we have any data on the demographic groups it is spreading among? Any significant numbers within the vaccinated cohorts, or is it mostly still younger, unvaccinated, people?
 
Sue Pertwee-Tyr said:
It's been around for a few weeks and, yes, it's spreading fast in some pockets. Do we have any data on the demographic groups it is spreading among? Any significant numbers within the vaccinated cohorts, or is it mostly still younger, unvaccinated, people?
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It's still too small for that too. I think we'll know more tomorrow with the weekly phe data. Watch secondary school attendance too.
 
Yes, point taken, but there again, secondary school attendance largely reflects the unvaccinated cohorts.

The trouble is, really, that the precautionary principle would have us close down again whenever a new strain shows signs of being virulent, just in case the vaccine is ineffective. We know that delays cost dearly in terms of lives and health, and the hit to society and the economy of a harder response at a later date.

But, but... we also need to be alert to the possibility of overreacting. Locking down also affects lives and health, and the economy, in the short term too, so we need to avoid knee-jerk responses every time there's a virulent new strain. Frankly, we're never going to be able to vaccinate for strains we don't know about, so we're always behind the curve on this. So if we act like we're unvaccinated every time there's a new strain, we'll never recover.

Glad it's not me making the call, frankly, but I'm horrified at the shower we do have making that call for us.
 
deej92 said:
Let’s be clear. There’s no evidence that the new Indian variant is more transmissible than the Kent strain/any other one or that it’s vaccine resistant. Even if it was slightly resistant, there’s a good chance they will still be quite effective and we’ve already been told vaccines can be tinkered within months. Most scientists are of the view that there’s nothing in the data to hold back on the May 17 re-opening.

We’ve seen the same fears about the Brazilian and South African variant and they’ve not come to fruition. The way I see it is we could spend the rest of our lives worrying about new variants and the natural fact that all viruses mutate. That’s an argument for never coming out of lockdowns and realistically that just can’t be an option.

We’ve got to open up fully and live with this virus and this time there should be no going back.
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You still peddle this half baked crap.
How many more times?
 
Sue Pertwee-Tyr said:
Yes, point taken, but there again, secondary school attendance largely reflects the unvaccinated cohorts.

The trouble is, really, that the precautionary principle would have us close down again whenever a new strain shows signs of being virulent, just in case the vaccine is ineffective. We know that delays cost dearly in terms of lives and health, and the hit to society and the economy of a harder response at a later date.

But, but... we also need to be alert to the possibility of overreacting. Locking down also affects lives and health, and the economy, in the short term too, so we need to avoid knee-jerk responses every time there's a virulent new strain. Frankly, we're never going to be able to vaccinate for strains we don't know about, so we're always behind the curve on this. So if we act like we're unvaccinated every time there's a new strain, we'll never recover.

Glad it's not me making the call, frankly, but I'm horrified at the shower we do have making that call for us.
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They hid the news of the Indian variants last week because of the elections - it's honesty we need, as ever...
 
Sue Pertwee-Tyr said:
It's been around for a few weeks and, yes, it's spreading fast in some pockets. Do we have any data on the demographic groups it is spreading among? Any significant numbers within the vaccinated cohorts, or is it mostly still younger, unvaccinated, people?
Click to expand...

A month ago there were warnings anticipating the arrival of the Indian variant around here (Derby, Nottingham, Leicester area). A week ago infections started rising rapidly centred on an outbreak at a local school. The infection rate looks as if it is going to grow well beyond the national maximum seen recently. Don't know if it is the Indian variant (or some other) or if there is something particular about the area beyond people not taking much interest in preventative measures. Nobody I have come across seems particularly bothered even now including the local testing station which waited a week before offering the more reliable lab tests. Prior to that it was 10 mile round trip. Can't see many people doing that unless forced (e.g. schools were only accepting the lab results not the quick ones). There were 6 staff/volunteers and no patients when I went on Monday for a test and to pickup some home test kits. At least those without symptoms don't have to pay anymore to be responsible and get tested regularly.

I don't know how large the outbreak is going to grow or if local people will modify their behaviour a bit more. In a few days the rules ease which really isn't going to help around here. I had arranged to visit relatives elsewhere in the country next week but have now cancelled. I wonder how many of my neighbours have done likewise.
 
Interesting nugget from ECDC.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/de...iants-in-India-and-situation-in-the-EUEEA.pdf

The United Kingdom has seen a rapid increase in the proportion of this variant, associated with travel to India and onward community transmission [9]. There is an increasing trend in some EU/EEA countries, but the variant remains at low levels, with the highest proportions being reported by Ireland (1.5%), France (1.0%), and Belgium (0.8%) in GISAID EpiCoV, for week 16. If these countries would follow the same pattern of increase of B.1.617.2 as the United Kingdom, they are at least two weeks behind in the evolution of the increase (Figure 3). When a variant is associated with travel, its proportion in the community can be overestimated as travellers and their contacts are more likely to be tested than others, so these data should be interpreted with caution.
 
Seeker_UK said:
Interesting nugget from ECDC.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/de...iants-in-India-and-situation-in-the-EUEEA.pdf

The United Kingdom has seen a rapid increase in the proportion of this variant, associated with travel to India and onward community transmission [9]. There is an increasing trend in some EU/EEA countries, but the variant remains at low levels, with the highest proportions being reported by Ireland (1.5%), France (1.0%), and Belgium (0.8%) in GISAID EpiCoV, for week 16. If these countries would follow the same pattern of increase of B.1.617.2 as the United Kingdom, they are at least two weeks behind in the evolution of the increase (Figure 3). When a variant is associated with travel, its proportion in the community can be overestimated as travellers and their contacts are more likely to be tested than others, so these data should be interpreted with caution.
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That's an interesting point but we shouldn't be looking for excuses or justifications to be accepting of the status quo. Our role is to question and to keep our eyes open...
 
gavreid said:
That's an interesting point but we shouldn't be looking for excuses or justifications to be accepting of the status quo. Our role is to question and to keep our eyes open...
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Agreed - it just makes for a more complex picture. As ever.
 
gavreid said:
I'm sorry but that is mistaken, there's no proof within the UK there's plenty of evidence from India.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E1HXZTrVcAU4XKh?format=jpg&name=large
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That may be so (the evidence isn’t clear), but the most important thing has to be how effective the vaccines work against the Indian variant. The big test will be if they continue to significantly reduce hospital admissions and deaths or keep them at a low level.

If the variant is considerably more vaccine-resistant and we do see a marked rise in hospitalisations and deaths, then yes that could be the time to consider rowing back on the roadmap. It’s too early to tell at the moment and I’m sure we’ll find out in the coming weeks what effect the May 17 re-opening has and how well the current vaccines work.
 
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