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Infected Cummings travelled around England with disease. Fire him now.

Seanm said:
If they're not working, they might as well be sick and dying.

Also the vast majority of deaths have been and will continue to be amongst older, economically unproductive people. That will have economic consequences of its own, but these people and those they represent are not deep thinkers. The main thing is, get things up and running, and if that works out great, if it doesn't we'll try something else, who knows something might come up. Much easier than learning how to actually run a country during a crisis.

They're winging it, with only their own malign priorities and habits for guidance.
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Yes I agree with all of this, if only the labour party, or someone else, would come up with an opposing strategy.
 
TheDecameron said:
Welcome to pfm OptimusPrime! Tell us a bit about your hifi and music interests by way of introduction.
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Thank you for the warm welcome. I have settled upon the following Naim system for the past few decades:

CDS2:XPS:82:NAPSC:HC:250:SL2:NACA5:Fraim

I am contemplating having a dabble at streaming with a preloved NDX or NDS.

In terms of music, I have a preference for Bowie, Hendrix, The Doors, Led Zepplin, The Rolling Stones, Eagles, Santana, Steely Dan etc.
 
At what threshold will it be accepted that R has increased to a dangerous level I wonder? I think the daily deaths figure is critical and we know that the care home deaths were "adjustable" to the convenience of the politicians before. I would say politically the government can get away with a headline figure of below 1000 deaths a day, especially now as the media has stopped comparing the UK death rate with other countries. I'm amazed at how quietly everyone has seemingly accepted a still unacceptable UK daily death rate that may still be an underestimate. The UK and the USA are out on their own in front on total deaths now. We most certainly haven't got this under control yet.
 
The opposition parties really need to start focussing more on the excess death statistics, not the government’s published figures IMO. The message needs to get out that the UK is a terribly dangerous place at present and our strategy has failed entirely when held to comparison with say NZ. I find the hopeless blustering Johnson and gurning #DeathMinister wanting to ease lockdown beyond terrifying. Even by their failed maths the daily bodycount will be over 1000 again within a week or two. I am also concerned by how little we are hearing from other parliamentary voices, the Lib Dems, Greens etc. This isn’t all about Johnson vs. Starmer.

The virus remains exactly the same. Without a vaccine or rigid containment it will return to doing it’s thing. It will continue doing so until everyone has had it and those most susceptible have all died.
 
We need to take June as day one.

If (big if) we get T&T together we could ease lockdown in a month and concentrate support on the vulnerable and vulnerable businesses.

Stephen
 
A good takedown of Cummings in the FT highlighting that over 1m people have lost their jobs thanks to Covid 19, and the utter absurdity that he remains in his unelected post. Also highlights the sheer spineless moral-compass-free sycophancy of the Tory cabinet.
 
Boris should be firing Cummings for the poor planning and advice he has given let alone eye test gate .After all most policy is made by him , starting with the abandoned herd immunity , late lockdown ,inadequate testing , lack of ppe .If he was the genius he is supposed to be this would all have been sorted and we would be saying what a good job Boris had done instead of the exact opposite
 
john.luckins said:
At what threshold will it be accepted that R has increased to a dangerous level I wonder? I think the daily deaths figure is critical and we know that the care home deaths were "adjustable" to the convenience of the politicians before. I would say politically the government can get away with a headline figure of below 1000 deaths a day, especially now as the media has stopped comparing the UK death rate with other countries. I'm amazed at how quietly everyone has seemingly accepted a still unacceptable UK daily death rate that may still be an underestimate. The UK and the USA are out on their own in front on total deaths now. We most certainly haven't got this under control yet.
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I thought R of 1.1 was unacceptable.
 
Tony L said:
The opposition parties really need to start focussing more on the excess death statistics, not the government’s published figures IMO. The message needs to get out that the UK is a terribly dangerous place at present and our strategy has failed entirely when held to comparison with say NZ.
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NZ is a bit of a backwater, though - hardly a global transportation hub. It's a bit easier for them to pull up the drawbridge for a bit. But on your first point, focussing on the excess deaths is not risk-free. A proportion of those excess deaths will be due to lockdown - reduced treatments for cancers and other chronic or acute diseases, or delayed treatment for strokes and heart attacks due to reluctance to go to A&E, etc. So focussing on those will give scope for a rejoinder: 'yes, and we can't help those poor people until we relax the lockdown'.
 
john.luckins said:
At what threshold will it be accepted that R has increased to a dangerous level I wonder? I think the daily deaths figure is critical and we know that the care home deaths were "adjustable" to the convenience of the politicians before. I would say politically the government can get away with a headline figure of below 1000 deaths a day, especially now as the media has stopped comparing the UK death rate with other countries. I'm amazed at how quietly everyone has seemingly accepted a still unacceptable UK daily death rate that may still be an underestimate. The UK and the USA are out on their own in front on total deaths now. We most certainly haven't got this under control yet.
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Can't like that post but completely agree. Tough lot and both countries contain a chunk of a population that don't like following sensible rules.
 
tiggers said:
No you are completely missing the point. In March there was a virus deadly enough that the government chose to close businesses and schools and tell just about everyone to stay at home. In June while we know more about some aspects of the virus we still don't know the key things about exactly how contagious it is (and therefore how likely kids are to catch it and pass it on), whether or not viral load is a factor, or even what the genuine incubation times are. Sure there's a heap of anecdotal evidence and some models, but peer reviewed scientific evidence? Nope! So given the risk is the same as it was in March opening schools and businesses is clearly madness OR the threat didn't warrant the 23 March 'lockdown'. It's one or the other!



Nope, but that is a whole different discussion and should not be used as a lever to senselessly lift pandemic restrictions. After all what happens to these kids in the 14 weeks a year they are not at school anyway? And why are people that would not normally even acknowledge this problem suddenly interested in it (not you)? Because they want to use it to justify their decisions! It's the usual political bullshit we get from these people... if they're genuinely worried why weren't they doing something about it before the pandemic? Will they ever acknowledge the problem again? Unlikely!



Agreed, but it's too soon ... just listen to the scientific advisors who are on SAGE... even they, despite being in the government's pocket, are saying the very same!
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I agree with most of what you say in isolation but infection rates are varied across the country, Sheffield has taken a decision to keep the schools ‘closed’ for another two weeks but yet the provision is still there & has been all through the crisis for key workers. However, the Schools do need to be ‘Covid ready’ for when children are able to come back, no problem with having the schools ready & delaying the return in line with local conditions.

The R rate in London is probably the lowest in the country so I have no issue with a staggered return.

We know more about the virus now than we did in March. I know the Govt probably doesn’t give a shit about deprived kids but educators do. Ultimately the virus will be with us for some time & we as citizens will have to manage it as best we can as the Govt cannot be relief upon, sad but true.
 
john.luckins said:
At what threshold will it be accepted that R has increased to a dangerous level I wonder? I think the daily deaths figure is critical and we know that the care home deaths were "adjustable" to the convenience of the politicians before. I would say politically the government can get away with a headline figure of below 1000 deaths a day, especially now as the media has stopped comparing the UK death rate with other countries. I'm amazed at how quietly everyone has seemingly accepted a still unacceptable UK daily death rate that may still be an underestimate. The UK and the USA are out on their own in front on total deaths now. We most certainly haven't got this under control yet.
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Winter flue has an R of about 1.2, CV is more like 2.6 which is why it is so difficult to contain. If you keep the R below 1 you can manage it. Obvs it is far harder to keep CV down below 1 than other infections.
 
Woodface said:
I agree with most of what you say in isolation but infection rates are varied across the country, Sheffield has taken a decision to keep the schools ‘closed’ for another two weeks but yet the provision is still there & has been all through the crisis for key workers. However, the Schools do need to be ‘Covid ready’ for when children are able to come back, no problem with having the schools ready & delaying the return in line with local conditions.

The R rate in London is probably the lowest in the country so I have no issue with a staggered return.

We know more about the virus now than we did in March. I know the Govt probably doesn’t give a shit about deprived kids but educators do. Ultimately the virus will be with us for some time & we as citizens will have to manage it as best we can as the Govt cannot be relief upon, sad but true.
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Fair enough, but I just think we've got 3 good months between now and September in which we could do a lot in terms of availing ourselves of the various virus transmission studies being completed in June/July and implement some proper semi-permanent school changes rather than the cobbled together affairs (like those at my partner's kid's primary a la the email we've just been sent). We will also know more about treatment by then and if we had preserved some of the lockdown measures longer we'd have genuinely lower R rates, but.....anyway I think we're on the same page broadly and I do take your point about education/deprived kids etc.
 
tiggers said:
Fair enough, but I just think we've got 3 good months between now and September in which we could do a lot in terms of availing ourselves of the various virus transmission studies being completed in June/July and implement some proper semi-permanent school changes rather than the cobbled together affairs (like those at my partner's kid's primary a la the email we've just been sent). We will also know more about treatment by then and if we had preserved some of the lockdown measures longer we'd have genuinely lower R rates, but.....anyway I think we're on the same page broadly and I do take your point about education/deprived kids etc.
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I see it from the other side as my wife is a Headteacher. She has been working towards making the School CV ‘safe’ for the last 3 weeks. They received confirmation from the Govt on Thursday & then a contrary instruction from council on the Friday so the communication to parents was late but at least the prep work had been done.

Personally I am not happy with Schools opening & other restrictions being relaxed at the same time. I think the next phase is too soon but I see this as a slightly different argument.

As I work in the commercial sector I am probably a little more impatient than some. Unfortunately there is no way I can see to get rid of this government or even the PM, how depressing is that?
 
Tony L said:
The opposition parties really need to start focussing more on the excess death statistics, .
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If they do that then everyone will think that they're presenting themselves as more competent to manage their way through this crisis than the Tories, and there's no reason at all to believe that. Or worse, people will think that they're troublemakers at a time when the government have a very difficult job to do and we should all be pulling together and singing from the same hymn sheet.

The problem for opposition parties is much harder than just drawing people's attention to Tory failures. I think they have to present a different approach to the crisis, and not just say: "Our plan is to open up the economy as much as possible while keeping enough of a lid on hospitalisations to ensure that the health system doesn’t look overwhelmed. We'll just do it better than BoJo."
 
mandryka said:
If they do that then everyone will think that they're presenting themselves as more competent to manage their way through this crisis than the tories, and there's no reason at all to believe that. Or worse, people will think that they're troublemakers at a time when the government have a very difficult job to do and we should all be pulling together and singing from the same hymn sheet.

The problem for opposition parties is much harder than just drawing people's attention to Tory failures. I think they have to present a different approach to the crisis, and not just say: Our plan is to open up the economy as much as possible while keeping enough of a lid on hospitalisations to ensure that the health system doesn’t look overwhelmed. We'll just do it better than BoJo."
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This is a joke right?

How much harder would it have been to lockdown sooner, not brag about shaking hands with COVID patients, not allow major sporting events when Italy and Spain were already in trouble, not trigger massive last drink pub evenings by giving notice and just 'advising' people not to go! How much harder would it have been not to underfund and generally neglect the care system in the name of 'austerity'? How much harder not to allow patients to be released from hospital and into care homes without knowing their COVID status?

The idea that nobody could have done better would be just laughable if the situation wasn't so serious. Of course people with different priorities could have done better, many countries have.
 
SteveS1 said:
The idea that nobody could have done better would be just laughable if the situation wasn't so serious. Of course people with different priorities could have done better, many countries have.
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No one is saying that no one could have done better on the health side of this crisis, and no one is saying that the Tories haven't made mistakes.

But bear in mind that there are two sides to this crisis: health and economy. And it's a real crisis -- real difficult. Labour, Greens etc have no track record in either. Do they have any ideas?
 
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