droodzilla
pfm Member
He forgot to say "Marxist".
Vast Brexit thread merge part V
- Thread starter TheDecameron
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stephen bennett
Mr Enigma
The worry is that those Northern Labour leavers that Johnson is wanting to capture to make up for the remainers in the south that will transfer to the LDs, will prefer the Brexit candidate to the Conservative one if they won't vote Labour anymore.
So Johnson won't have a majority, but the Brories will have one and that's even worse than the Tories alone.
Stephen
stephen bennett
Mr Enigma
Caledon1297
pfm Member
Apropos of nothing, Dick Briane, leader of something called UKIP, has resigned... apparently.
droodzilla
pfm Member
Don't believe the hype. Brexit Party support is quite wide but thinly distributed, so FPTP is heavily against them. In addition they're not a real party and have no "ground game" (something Labour excels at). I'll be surprised if they win a single seat, and amazed if they get into double figures (still too many, alas).
eternumviti
Insufficient privileges to reply.
Brilliant, he can come back and spend time on PFM arguing with TheDecameron about the relative merits of belt and direct drive turntables again.
Marchbanks
Hat and Beard member
...and soon someone from Labour will be along to say ‘a vote for any other party is a vote for Johnson as PM.’
And so the system continues...
rbrown
I think therefore I think I am
Dick Braine - nominative determinism in action!
droodzilla
pfm Member
Hi Stephen, do you have a link for this? I'm curious. I expect Lewis has hacked off a few of the hyper-partisan crowd but I don't think he's public enemy number 1, as far as Momentum is concerned.
Seanm
pfm Member
Vote tactically people to keep out the Conservatives. Whoever it takes.
Bear in mind though that central to the Lib Dems’ strategy is a deliberate misinformation campaign regarding their chances in Conservative/Labour marginals: they’re using their own polling data to suggest they stand a chance. Use a reliable tactical voting website.
wiresandmore
pfm Member
Yes - lots of data here, as you might expect new voters are overwhelmingly younger - https://www.gov.uk/performance/register-to-vote - interesting that the 25-34 age group registrations are as high as 18-25
droodzilla
pfm Member
I believe Stats for Lefties is going to compile a spreadsheet summarising the 2017 GE results. Presumably, it will be based on the raw data in the files on this webpage:
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7979#fullreport
It will be a good factual start to the process of deliberation (it need not be the end of the process, of course).
stephen bennett
Mr Enigma
I’m afraid I don’t. It was told to me by a party member/activist whose word I trust.
I assume that’s all over now anyhow? I was surprised as Lewis is one of heroes who voted against A50.
Stephen
matthewr
spɹɐʍʞɔɐq spɹoɔǝɹ ɹnoʎ sʎɐld
The GetVoting one is here, including an explanation of their methodology. I had no idea tactical voting was so complicated and contentious.
https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1189518504606736384
Seanm
pfm Member
Cheers Drood. I think last GE is usually best guide. Lib Dems talk up volatility, EU elections, their own polling to counter that.
I don’t know how the various tactical voting sites stack up. I’ve looked here:
https://tactical.vote/ Seems legit.
droodzilla
pfm Member
Sorry Matthew that site's an immediate fail for me.
Sheffield Hallam, my constituency, is a fiercely contested Lab/LD marginal (and pro-Remain) with Tories a very distant third. The site recommends I vote LD when a vote for either LD or Labour, depending on one's political affiliation, would be fine. Sean's link is much more sound (for this sample of one!):
https://tactical.vote/sheffield-hallam
I'm all for using sites like this but they need to be assessed critically.
Seanm
pfm Member
Very alarming. They recommend Lib Dems in Surrey Heath. Lib Dems got 11% in 2017, Labour got 21%.
The contentiousness I guess turns on the basic political model more than it does methodology. Lefties tend to focus on long term ideological and material trends, and 2017 doesn’t seem that far away in those terms: not enough has changed to support that kind of absolutely massive swing. Centrists just say “Volatility!” and basically everything’s up for grabs if that’s all that’s going on.
Anyway on this evidence: don’t trust tactical voting sites attached to single issue pressure groups (remain in this case, of course).
SteveS1
I heard that, pardon?
The 2017 is actually not a great guide.
In 2017 Farron/School fees hangover reduced Lib Dem votes markedly and people thinking UKIP were suddenly redundant reduced their vote quite drastically. It would be quite wrong to assume Swinson led Lib Dems and Farage led BP would poll as badly this time. There was also a May factor that simply won't exist to the same level with Johnson.
The Curtis comments and info that Drood pointed to looks a better place to start.
sean99
pfm Member
It is strange - GetVoting recommends LibDem in South Cambridgeshire (Heidi Allen's constituency, where I used to live), and tactical.vote recommends labour. Here are the 2017 results
2017 ELECTION RESULTS
Conservative 33,631 51.80%
Labour 17,679 27.23%
Liberal Democrat 12,102 18.64%
Green 1,512 2.33%
Heidi Allen was a moderate conservative, so perhaps GetVoting think the LibDems are more capable of peeling away voters who voted for her.
Here are the 2019 EU election results, just to add further confusion:
Liberal Democrats 20,975
The Brexit Party 13,174
Green Party 8,351
Conservative and Unionist Party 4,685
Change UK - The Independent Group 3,906
Labour Party 2,675
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