Vast Brexit thread merge part III

[ff1d1l]

Tut tut you are being emotive.

Being accurate...

 

[35451]

Doesn’t this contradict the Brexitier view that the UK will be better off out from under the yoke of the EU, too, though? If it’s global factors that have the biggest influence, then what we do with our neighbours (ooer, missus) isn’t material. So where’s the argument for leaving the EU in that case?

Agree in the main, but I

You mistake is to think of this in terms of forecasts rather than actual well understood (and empirically supported) effects. So yes while you are correct about the futility of forecasts, you are wrong about the absolute levels of growth in the UK economy which we know will make our economy smaller in the medium and long term.

This has of course been the primary economic misunderstanding of Brexiteers and why they have essentially abandoned this line of argument and why the only economic support for Brexit is from Patrick Minford and Andrew Lilico.

The future is only forecast. Empirically, you can only look backwards to see how inaccurate forecasts have historically, the project forwards, factoring in all your cause and effect modelling and influencing. Thing is that you think you know, based on these. But reality suggests it's Rumsfield known unknown.

We are better at forecasting weather than economics

 

[Brian]

It's the principle of what he said that you should engage with, Brian - and you haven't - because it is inarguable. I can only assume that you don't think a second referendum is democratic because you're worried that this time people will see sense and vote to remain.

Your assumption is, not surprisingly, incorrect.

 

[Mullardman]

No. I'm just wondering what the criteria is for having a follow up referendum to the 2016 one given as we had one back in 1975. A lot of people say we would be disobeying the will of the people to have a follow up to the 2016 one yet the 2016 one was a follow up to the 1975 one. So is it a time thing? In which case how long do we wait before another referendum is OK?

Don't think there actually is a criterion. ISTM that Referenda are 'in the gift of' whoever controls Parliament. The more telling issue to me is that people are getting all 'will of the people' about the last referendum, but apparently don't give a f*** about being dragooned into a no deal Brexit, denied a second vote now the facts are clear and otherwise pushed around by a minority Govt 'led' by a lying corrupt bastard 'advised' by a psychopath.

The opportunities for Godwinery..are endless...


* Pedantry Alert!!: Criteria = plural = 'are'. Criterion = singular = 'is' .

 

[wacko]

But of course, they are our friends, allies and trading partners.
Having said that i don't want the UK to be one of a handful of countries that rebuild Macedonia and build motorways in Romania.

Either you rebuild Macedonia (tiny country, population 2m) and build motorways in Romania et al and sell them Services/Stuff as they prosper.
Or the citizens of those temporarily messed up places come over to the UK (& Germany, France etc) looking for jobs.
To me the first option is Win/Win, the second is Lose/Lose.

 

[Brian]

You mistake is to think of this in terms of forecasts rather than actual well understood (and empirically supported) effects. So yes while you are correct about the futility of forecasts, you are wrong about the absolute levels of growth in the UK economy which we know will make our economy smaller in the medium and long term.

This has of course been the primary economic misunderstanding of Brexiteers and why they have essentially abandoned this line of argument and why the only economic support for Brexit is from Patrick Minford and Andrew Lilico.

Can’t agree, Matthew.

From what I’ve heard over the last 3 years, mainly in tv debates it has to be said as brexit is not a topic of general conversation in my life, is that leave voters fully understand the economy will be smaller in the long term for leaving versus remaining. They included other factors than the economy in their decision making at the ballot box.

 

[Mullardman]

But of course, they are our friends, allies and trading partners.
Having said that i don't want the UK to be one of a handful of countries that rebuild Macedonia and build motorways in Romania.

While you're at it Colin.. would you like the UK to start re-paying all of the EU money that was spent in re-generation/employment/training/environmental measures, etc., etc.,. in areas of the UK just left to rot by the Tories and scum such as Johnson, Rees-Mogg, Farage and all the other lying entitled bastards?

 

[farfromthesun]

Your assumption is, not surprisingly, incorrect.

Well, that's very difficult to quantify given that you never directly engage in the subject matter, but persist with your enigmatic pseudo rubbish instead.

You should be a politician!

 

[Brian]

Either you rebuild Macedonia (tiny country, population 2m) and build motorways in Romania et al and sell them Services/Stuff as they prosper.
Or the citizens of those temporarily messed up places come over to the UK (& Germany, France etc) looking for jobs.
To me the first option is Win/Win, the second is Lose/Lose.

Sounds fine but the reality has been a combination of one and two.

 

[Mullardman]

Can’t agree, Matthew.

From what I’ve heard over the last 3 years, mainly in tv debates it has to be said as brexit is not a topic of general conversation in my life, is that leave voters fully understand the economy will be smaller in the long term for leaving versus remaining. They included other factors than the economy in their decision making at the ballot box.

So what you are saying is that Brixiteers are selfish bastards, willing to sacrifice the well being of their fellow citizens, in order to implement their fantasy of a resurgent Empire and a mythical Sovereignty? Yep.. I think we already knew that.

 

[farfromthesun]

From what I’ve heard over the last 3 years, mainly in tv debates it has to be said as brexit is not a topic of general conversation in my life

haha, good one!

is that leave voters fully understand the economy will be smaller in the long term for leaving versus remaining. They included other factors than the economy in their decision making at the ballot box.

Such as not being partial to hearing Polish spoken on the bus?

 

[HairyHaggis]

But of course, they are our friends, allies and trading partners.
Having said that i don't want the UK to be one of a handful of countries that rebuild Macedonia and build motorways in Romania.

you mean like the way china (inscrutable yet shrewd) is doing is africa? railways, motorways, infrastructure...increasing their stake in the world and harvesting trading and business partners while at the same time increasing the ability of said partners to be future customers? it's called investment i believe? win-win

brexit? for the few, not the many

 

[Brian]

Well, that very difficult to quantify given that you never directly engage in the subject matter, but persist with your enigmatic pseudo rubbish instead.

You should be a politician!

Pseudo rubbish?

The bit I directly engaged with is in bold below. The reason you assume I am against a second referendum is not why I am against a second referendum, so I said so. In what other way do you want me to ‘directly engage?’

It's the principle of what he said that you should engage with, Brian - and you haven't - because it is inarguable. I can only assume that you don't think a second referendum is democratic because you're worried that this time people will see sense and vote to remain.

 

[farfromthesun]

Such as not being partial to hearing Polish spoken on the bus?

Looks like they'll get what they want.

This is absolutely despicable - though not really surprising.

https://twitter.com/the3million/status/1182203372574822402

 

[matthewr]

Agree in the main, but I


The future is only forecast. Empirically, you can only look backwards to see how inaccurate forecasts have historically, the project forwards, factoring in all your cause and effect modelling and influencing. Thing is that you think you know, based on these. But reality suggests it's Rumsfield known unknown.

We are better at forecasting weather than economics

You just restated the same error you made before. This argument is not based on economic forecasts but rather on trade economics. Indeed on the very trade economics that underpins neoliberalism, globalisation, Tatcherism etc. You can tell it's not based on forecasts because there is near unanimity amongst academic economists on this point -- if it were just based on forecasts then most of them would be saying "Who knows?" and the rest all disagreeing with each other.

The easiest way to think of it is like the UK suffering a recession of something like 1.5% to 2.5% over the next few years but instead of recovering from this, this just being the future reduced baseline for all our growth in future years.

 

[Brian]

haha, good one!

Such as not being partial to hearing Polish spoken on the bus?

Never come across it. Is that the type of person you mix with?

 

[notaclue]

Myths from a small island: the dangers of a buccaneering view of British history
https://www.newstatesman.com/politi...and-dangers-buccaneering-view-british-history

"The rhetoric of “Global Britain”, with its breezy insistence that a nation stripped of its colonies, its military power and its dominance of the global financial system can enjoy the same power today as at its colonial zenith, has set Britain on a dangerous collision-course with reality. Nemesis will surely follow."

 

[farfromthesun]

Never come across it. Is that the type of person you mix with?

Ever thought of doing stand up? No? Thank goodness for that.

 

[matthewr]

Can’t agree, Matthew.

From what I’ve heard over the last 3 years, mainly in tv debates it has to be said as brexit is not a topic of general conversation in my life, is that leave voters fully understand the economy will be smaller in the long term for leaving versus remaining. They included other factors than the economy in their decision making at the ballot box.

This has not been my experience, Brian. Indeed such has been the extensive debate on the topic amongst my friends and family that the subject is now banned because it ends up making my Mother (a working class Tory ) cry. Also I have been fielding questions on the subject of Brexit economics on here for years and yet the same incorrect views and assumptions keep coming up, not least today!

I also think, although I believe you disagree, that given that the policy will have this effect it is perfectly reasonable for Remainers to ask Brexiters to explain the benefits that outweigh this loss of jobs and money. I also firmly believe that, in such a close result, if it was clear that the country would be worse off from Brexit then the country would have voted the other way. I just don't think one can credibly argue that people voted to be worse off and/or unemployed.

 

[Brian]

So what you are saying is that Brixiteers are selfish bastards, willing to sacrifice the well being of their fellow citizens, in order to implement their fantasy of a resurgent Empire and a mythical Sovereignty? Yep.. I think we already knew that.

Righto. 17.4m voted selfishly, everyone else voted without a thought for anything but their neighbour. Makes a change from the thick racist nonsense.