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Ukraine II

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tones said:
I'm hoping that this event produces a whole sea change with respect to how we acquire energy. When the German Greens are prepared to keep going with nuclear, you know something is happening...

The West believed that improved economic/commercial ties will automatically lead to western-style liberal democracy. Both China and Russia have now proved this to be completely wrong. We should therefore not make ourselves beholden to failing petro-states.

I find it astonishing that we are busily buggering up the planet for the entire human race and all some people can think of doing is shooting at and blowing up other people. We don't actually deserve to survive.
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Germany has moved more in the last week than in the previous 20 years. It is amazing. We could well see a budget deficit again.
 
sean99 said:
The earth has a human problem, but humans have a psychopath problem. Solve the latter, and I think humans will find a way to solve the former.
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I'd love to think that is the case, but I'm not so sure. I'm always mindful of Nikita Khruschev's comment that, when it came time to hang the last capitalist, the capitalist would sell him the rope. The comment of Mr. Smith (of Matrix fame) that humanity is a cancer of the planet seems quite apposite. We shall undoubtedly continue to assault nature, but at one point nature will hit us back really hard, and then it'll be too late. I wish the planet's next dominant species better luck.
 
DonQuixote99 said:
Good question. Any number of commentators are saying the Western policy must offer Putin an out, but I haven't heard what this 'out' might be. Agreeing that the Ukraine must give up all it's armored divisions?
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My gut feeling is that Putin has thought about this for a long time and isn't looking for anyone to offer him an out. I think that we are kidding ourselves by hoping for things like that, or saying things like 'he's lost his mind'. I want to believe that he's signed his own p45, but what bothers me is he must have an awful lot of backing to be able to mobilise the entire military, whilst seeming to keep his own population under very tight control via the police and state media. Independent media outlets are being shut down and they are about to introduce a law that can give people up to 15 years in jail for spreading fake information about the war in Ukraine. Thats a lot of complicit people to make all that happen. Granted, some of them may have their doubts, but Putin seems to have zero credible opposition from within.

This has been building for a long time. If all the data we've seen on this thread about Russias modernisation of their nuclear weapons is true, specifically the tactical warheads, it feels like we're either going to war, or we're going to see the map re-drawn.

Personally I don't imagine that Putin wants a nuclear war because it will interfere with his horse riding, but I don't see him backing down from anyone who challenges him either.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022...terms-for-fakes-about-ukraine-invasion-a76687


At least the International cat federation has finally got involved.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022...-shows-over-russias-actions-in-ukraine-a76739
 
-alan- said:
What worries me of late is that there doesn't seem to be any way to turn this thing off.

If Putin's concerns are around how the changing political landscape around the old Warsaw Pact countries has left Russia vulnerable economically, leaving him with massive reserves of military power and relatively little else - and he's being rendered a pariah by the West and large parts of the rest of the world - how do you get him back to the table ?

If we deploy effective economic sanctions, it proves his case for him internally. He can't realistically be defeated militarily, and will use hardships arising from the current sanctions as further justification as to why he has to press on militarily.

For the life of me, I can't see a way out for him diplomatically - which means barring him being overthrown internally, we're looking at an ever more desperate leader with a strong military and little else to bargain with other than further actual or threatened military aggression.

Anybody on here have any other more optimistic insights into what other ways this might go ?
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I'm really beginning to believe that Putin doesn't want a way out, he knows damn well that we don't want a war with him but I do believe he is willing to have that war if we try and step in at any time. Hence when Ukraine is annihilated he will regather his troops and move on to the next country and call our bluff once again, I'm wondering if he actually wants this war to happen and will continue to push until we step in and provoke it in his eyes.
 
Dinovector said:
I'm really beginning to believe that Putin doesn't want a way out, he knows damn well that we don't want a war with him but I do believe he is willing to have that war if we try and step in at any time. Hence when Ukraine is annihilated he will regather his troops and move on to the next country and call our bluff once again, I'm wondering if he actually wants this war to happen and will continue to push until we step in and provoke it in his eyes.
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Social collapse back in Russia, driven by inflation and pressure on the Ruble, is a very real possibility. That could be dangerous too but 'interesting' on the other hand...
 
Dinovector said:
I'm really beginning to believe that Putin doesn't want a way out, he knows damn well that we don't want a war with him but I do believe he is willing to have that war if we try and step in at any time. Hence when Ukraine is annihilated he will regather his troops and move on to the next country and call our bluff once again, I'm wondering if he actually wants this war to happen and will continue to push until we step in and provoke it in his eyes.
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You would think that if this is the case he'd lose his support within Russia, because if it escalates to nuclear conflict then all of his minions will also suffer (mostly die).

Why die a fiery death when you're running a profitable gangster operation ?
 
sean99 said:
You would think that if this is the case he'd lose his support within Russia, because if it escalates to nuclear conflict then all of his minions will also suffer (mostly die).

Why die a fiery death when you're running a profitable gangster operation ?
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You would hope so but maybe their as daft as him, scared of him, I really don't know. I do feel that he will keep pushing until he either has the whole of Europe (of at least the former USSR) or we end up in conflict. He either gets what he wants or goes down in a blaze of glory (read nutterdom)

I do hope I'm very wrong, I often am
 
I wasn't sure whether to link this here or in the Brexit thread; maybe I'll put it in both. Anyway, I found this an interesting read :

https://www.theguardian.com/world/c...ladimir-putin-war-eu-ukraine-european-project

I suspect that it's a blessing that we are no longer an EU member. It means that they can get on with their sanctions on Russia without us being a dead weight holding things back. We look rather pathetic and out of the mainstream as history swirls around us.
 
The BBC are running some drone footage of an area of Kyiv and it is looking more and more like Aleppo. Vast swathes of flats and homes reduced to rubble in what can only be described as war crimes.
 
eisenach said:
I suspect that it's a blessing that's a belssing that we are no longer an EU member. It means that they can get on with their sanctions on Russia without us being a dead weight holding things back. We look rather pathetic and out of the mainstream as history swirls around us.
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This ongoing situation seems to be unifying and strengthening the EU whilst only highlighting the grubby little kleptocracy the Tories have facilitated here for their owners. I’m pleased to see the EU acting with so much integrity and compassion and utterly ashamed and disgusted by what the UK has become.
 
Tony L said:
This ongoing situation seems to be unifying and strengthening the EU whilst only highlighting the grubby little kleptocracy the Tories have facilitated here for their owners. I’m pleased to see the EU acting with so much integrity and compassion and utterly ashamed and disgusted by what the UK has become.
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Indeed, if social media is any guide Priti's catching the public mood rather well in terms of ( not)helping refugees. It makes me feel utterly ashamed to be British.
 
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