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What Brexit tells us

gassor

gassor

There may be more posts after this.
I didn't want Brexit and argued against it. But rather than just rail about it being a disaster maybe it tells us something we need to deal with. Behind all the declarations of rising nationalism there is the failure of the economics of globalisation.

Trade should be good for all involved, but some people have undoubtedly suffered. During the week I was in Fife and saw how poor some people looked. I have seen this in many places up here. Heavy industry has died and manufacturing has disappeared. What jobs have replaced them, not much apart from zero hours contracts in distribution centres it seems. Not everyone can be a solicitor or a teacher.

I am beginning to think that the social cohesion I have seen most of my life could come apart. The haves and the have-nots are very easy to see around where I live. It is the have-nots who largely voted for Brexit ( the poorer C2DE category was almost two-thirds in favour of quitting, voting Out by 64% to 36%, according to Lord Ashcroft survey of 12,000). Was this not a message to say we don't trust the economic/political status quo to improve our lives now or in the near future.

If things don't work for them (and I doubt it*) where will they go in the future? To me they will lurch further to the right and then we could be in serious trouble.

To see what's happening take Dyson the world leading appliance maker. Innovative British company through and through, but where is it's manufacture now based - Malaysia. It is the periphery jobs that are created around a big producer like Dyson that we are missing out on as production becomes more mechanised. The industries that grow up around firms like Dyson will grow in Malaysia not in the UK.

Look at all the clothing industries that have disappeared overseas and the food manufacture and electrical producers as well. Can we revive them in some way? The obvious answer is to tax imports of certain kinds to protect home industries. The big problem is that countries will retaliate and the effects could be difficult for us.

At the end of the day we may have to put up with dearer prices in the shops to help UK industry and prevent the social fabric of the country being torn apart.

* Ceterus paribus
 
Dyson is made in Malaysia by a Singaporean company - profits from cheap labour in Malaysia (probably mostly Bangladeshi foreign workers) end up in Singapore

James Dyson was a prominent Brexit supporter
 
Two thoughts spring to mind here.

Firstly, the British obsession with getting a bargain has driven this process, so we can't just blame nasty capitalists for the job exodus, the general population must share some responsibility.

Secondly, even if the lost industry was re-onshored, the majority of the work will be done by robots anyway so not many new jobs will be created, it is too late now.

To ensure cohesion and a continuation of civilised society, we need to think more radically. Something like the universal basic income is one of the ideas that might lead us out of this mess.
 
NeilR said:
Firstly, the British obsession with getting a bargain has driven this process, so we can't just blame nasty capitalists for the job exodus, the general population must share some responsibility.
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Yes this has been humbug of the worst kind. Globalisation and automation have been driven by the need to keep costs down and basic things affordable. The total obsession with retail in the UK makes us more vulnerable than most, stand by for even higher levels of personal debt which is already at ludicrous levels. People in the UK owed £1.512 trillion at the end of November 2016. This is up from £1.460 trillion at the end of November 2015 – an extra £1017.04 per UK adult.

http://themoneycharity.org.uk/money-statistics/

Rather like a large chunk of people voting to stop or reconstruct immigration for jobs they have no intention of doing (shortage of skills being a red herring), we also have a demographic that are not able (or in most cases, willing) to pay the higher prices so this will be fun - not.
 
I'll be delighted and far beyond amazed if Brexit doesn't make life a heck of a lot worse for the C2DE categories, but their issue was never the EU. It is automation and the increasing obsolescence of human labour beyond the lowest common denominator third-world exploitation as practiced by Dyson etc. The EU is an entity that enshrined much of our employment law and workers rights, it is one of the key reasons we do not see these third-world-style sweatshops here. I do not have the slightest confidence in a Conservative government retaining or protecting these rights.

As NeilR says this is a far bigger issue, a far more complex question and requires going back to the drawing board and redefining how profits from our technological innovation are spread to benefit the whole of society. Anything less has to fail as without the need for labour the capitalist model collapses due to the vast swathes cast aside not having any real purchasing power. We are entering a very interesting phase in human history, one that could, should and I expect eventually will be amazing, but the way the cards are being played by the current elite (e.g. the current move to far-right fascist rhetoric and ideas) I fear we will only get there after a very serious blood-bath. We have a lot of exceptionally stupid people pulling the levers and it appears they will use any tool in the book to avoid the real issue...
 
The elephant in the room is still the impact of immigration. You can blame everything else all you like but it is damaging the country for the working class demographic in their opinion.
1. It is generally in their living area where migrants move changing their towns and cities.
2. It is high levels of unskilled workers driving down wages. I was part of a company in early 2000s bringing in polish lorry drivers.
3. Services are stretched by the increase in population.

The damage is done we now have to find the best solution for all.
 
It is all part of the same picture; semi and unskilled labour is of increasingly diminished value on the market, and if the indigenous population is not prepared/not suitable for these roles then alternates will be supplied. The sell-by date for lorry drivers, train drivers etc is maybe another five or ten years I guess as they can be automated fairly well with existing technology and this area is improving at breakneck speed. Under the existing capitalist model the only option for the lorry driver will be to undercut the machine, and that means theirs is a wage that won't be going up in the future for sure. There is only one direction of travel here and no amount of chanting "take back control" or whatever dumb slogans will halt it. We need to take a step back, assess this new world in an in-depth and rational maner and adapt.
 
The trouble is automation will not help to pay for state benefits, the NHS, state pensions and education. Without personal taxation the system collapses as it is highly unlikely that corporation tax will come anywhere near close enough to over the shortfall. If they tried to heavily tax them they would all relocate.
 
Rodrat said:
The trouble is automation will not help to pay for state benefits, the NHS, state pensions and education. Without personal taxation the system collapses as it is highly unlikely that corporation tax will come anywhere near close enough to over the shortfall. If they tried to heavily tax them they would all relocate.
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Then company tax will have to be raised and the profits from automation redistributed. How will anyone be able to pay for the products of automation otherwise?

There are two alternative futures: one where all but the very wealthiest (top 1% or even 0.1%) are squeezed and increasing levels of authoritarianism are needed to control the rest of the population; or one where mechanisms are put in place to distribute profits more evenly, everyone works less but no-one is destitute.

I know which one I'm fighting for.
 
Rodrat said:
The trouble is automation will not help to pay for state benefits, the NHS, state pensions and education. Without personal taxation the system collapses as it is highly unlikely that corporation tax will come anywhere near close enough to over the shortfall. If they tried to heavily tax them they would all relocate.
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Indeed, which is why a ground-up rethink is becoming increasingly essential. Left unchecked the system can only collapse as the logical conclusion is that a tiny minority will own all of the means of production yet have no customers as the masses are no longer needed as an employable commodity and therefore have no cash to spend, i.e. the end-game for conventional capitalism as the theoretical model no longer stands up. Capitalism is based upon consumers and end-users, punish the latter too much and it fails at a basic conceptual level.

I have no idea where we go, but it is abundantly obvious that protectionism will not work in this modern high-tech connected context regardless of the hard-right gobshitery currently in play. I'm struggling to see anything viable beyond adopting a Universal Basic Income and coming to the acceptance that many people will never be needed for work. I'm sure the real innovators, thinkers, artists and artisans will always find a role, but the working masses are pretty much screwed as I see it.
 
droodzilla said:
Then company tax will have to be raised and the profits from automation redistributed. How will anyone be able to pay for the products of automation otherwise?

There are two alternative futures: one where all but the very wealthiest (top 1% or even 0.1%) are squeezed and increasing levels of authoritarianism are needed to control the rest of the population; or one where mechanisms are put in place to distribute profits more evenly, everyone works less but no-one is destitute.

I know which one I'm fighting for.
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Most manufacturing had either gone bust or moved abroad. Do you really believe that adding another financial burden to the few reamining is the way forward.
 
Tony L said:
It is all part of the same picture; semi and unskilled labour is of increasingly diminished value on the market, and if the indigenous population is not prepared/not suitable for these roles then alternates will be supplied. The sell-by date for lorry drivers, train drivers etc is maybe another five or ten years I guess as they can be automated fairly well with existing technology and this area is improving at breakneck speed.
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Yes a lot of jobs that people's parents had are no longer here and there is an expectation that the future is not great for many groups of workers. If people were happy with future economic prospects they would not be looking for scapegoats and blaming the EU and immigrants. I realise this is all at a superficial level, but it seems to me the best way forward would be to invest in education and improving a lot of the superstructure of the country.

Maybe we should consider the Trump approach and try to limit buying from overseas to get UK industry back on it's feet. Whatever we do it seems that the continuation of laissez-faire globalisation is not the way forward and must be brought under some sort of control much like it does on a national scale in most countries. Yes prices of most goods will rise, but it would give hope to the people who presently see no future for their families.
 
gassor said:
Maybe we should consider the Trump approach and try to limit buying from overseas to get UK industry back on it's feet. Whatever we do it seems that the continuation of laissez-faire globalisation is not the way forward and must be brought under some sort of control much like it does on a national scale in most countries. Yes prices of most goods will rise, but it would give hope to the people who presently see no future for their families.
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As Trump will find protectionism just won't work. We are used to being able to own mobile phones for the price of a cheap contract, jeans and trainers etc for beer money, large widescreen TVs etc being available to all etc. Close the borders and these things will all cost hundreds/thousands if made by well-paid unionised British or American workers rather than machines or third-world cheap labour. This is just the simple reality of it. I'm prepared to bet that if Trump does manage to get any cars made in Detroit or wherever it will amount to little more than a handful of American workers pushing buttons on imported Japanese robots. I'd be amazed if it got that far to be honest as Trump himself gets all his own-brand shit made in the third-world for bottom dollar. Even his 'Make America Great Again' moron-identification hats were made in China and Vietnam!
 
Colin Barron said:
Most manufacturing had either gone bust or moved abroad. Do you really believe that adding another financial burden to the few reamining is the way forward.
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I'm thinking globally and long-term Colin. I don't know exactly how we get there but something needs to change.
 
Agree with all the sentiments in this thread that Brexit is a symptom of a looming crisis of economic division.

I suspect that eventually corporations will have a "Henry Ford" moment when they realize that in order to have customers for their products profits must be plowed back into society. I'm certain that governments will not be able to strong arm corporations since they'll just relocate to the latest tax haven. However governments can start the conversation about where we're headed and whether our future is utopian or dystopian (I agree with Droodzilla's binary future choice).

It's a worrying time, but also a time full of possibility.
 
Ah, another thread about protectionism. I asked what this means in another thread, as I still don't know where buying local ceases to be bad and becomes good, whatever mechanisms are put in place to encourage it. I don't reckon anyone knows actually. Because we have not got it right. When knobs like Trump make valid points about BMW building a factory on the Mexican border and pumping cars into the USA, it's tough to swallow. Agreeing with Trump, I mean.

I do know something abut Dyson build and material quality, though. It's shit.
 
sean99 said:
I suspect that eventually corporations will have a "Henry Ford" moment when they realize that in order to have customers for their products profits must be plowed back into society.
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Is that really a Henry Ford comment? I wonder what the people / robot ratio is in his factories now versus when he said it.
 
Tony L said:
As Trump will find protectionism just won't work. We are used to being able to own mobile phones for the price of a cheap contract, jeans and trainers etc for beer money, large widescreen TVs etc being available to all etc. Close the borders and these things will all cost hundreds/thousands if made by well-paid unionised British or American workers rather than machines or third-world cheap labour.
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Production a lot of what we buy will become completely automated in the next 10-20 years so that is not where I am seeing benefits. That would happen in the supply-chain firms that supply the materials and distribute the finished products. They would supply components and robotic technology. If clothes and IT products etc are not made here then we lose all the hi-tech skilled jobs that feed into the production of these and other goods.

Matthew has indicated on another thread that WTO rules would not favour us if we were to impose tariffs on some imports, that is something that would have to be looked into.
 
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