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Records as investments

Tony L

Tony L

Administrator

An interesting perspective from Mike at In Groove. I don’t agree with him on everything, and from my own perspective some ‘90s audiophile reissues are amongst the most valuable vinyl I own (Nimbus, DCC, Classic etc), but I think his take on ‘manufactured collectables’ e.g. RSD is about right. FWIW I think Dinked, Rough Trade exclusives etc, which he didn’t mention are a vastly better bet as they are highly limited first pressing of new stuff, so if any of the bands make it long term you have the most desirable first issue. That aside, I think he’s about right. Very different to my approach, though I’ve been doing it a lot longer so bought a lot of now very valuable stuff new when it came out. An interesting discussion though.

I also found it rather amusing that it was centred around an arguable (see Mike’s video) first pressing of Coltrane’s Blue Train which made $12,600 recently. I think he called Ken Micallef “a tool”, in fact I’m pretty sure he did, though it may have been someone else. Anyway here’s Ken’s video on the same auction:


It certainly looks like value for the really good stuff is heading up and in the case of jazz, and I suspect some classic rock, I can’t see it coming down again. As ever from a collector perspective first press, or very close to it, from country of artist origin is what you want.

That logic obviously includes brand new current stuff, so pick your versions wisely! From a personal perspective I will always take a signed copy over a colour vinyl variant, though these days one often gets both if fast enough off the mark. It is certainly worth shopping around with new releases and I’ll certainly pay a bit more for the signed Bandcamp copy etc. These are the future collectables if that band makes it.
 
That's a great video. I seem to recall Mike ran a business selling trading cards before he got into records so it's really interesting to get his take as he's coming at it from a modern collectibles perspective, not a traditional record store owner.

I kind of agree with him that anything marketed as a 'collectors edition' probably isn't going to be worth a whole lot. I remember the 90s comics boom when hyped titles would come with twelve 'rare' cover variants, ashcan edition, limited edition sealed in a bag (so you can't actually read it without destroying the value!). It was common practice for collectors to buy two copies of even standard titles - one to read and one to keep pristine and mint.

A lot of that stuff is worth pennies now because it sold by the truckload and was kept mint bagged and boarded.

What's worth money is early issues of independent comics, with limited print runs, that then became a big hit.

Easy to see the parallels.

His comments on grading are interesting too. Watch some videos on comic book grading - the firms that do it are super precise. I get the reassurance it gives to an investment buyer that your DSOTM has been independently graded 9.4. But it's kind of sad to me to see comic books, and now records, slabbed so they can never be enjoyed for what they are.
 
P.S. I was thinking about all of this stuff the other day when I was looking at the prices of death metal records and wishing I'd bought more 35 years ago. The snag of course is I may not have another 35 years left to wait for any records I buy now to appreciate in value...
 
paulfromcamden said:
I kind of agree with him that anything marketed as a 'collectors edition' probably isn't going to be worth a whole lot. I remember the 90s comics boom when hyped titles would come with twelve 'rare' cover variants, ashcan edition, limited edition sealed in a bag (so you can't actually read it without destroying the value!). It was common practice for collectors to buy two copies of even standard titles - one to read and one to keep pristine and mint.
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I think it depends what it is, and I certainly think Mike is missing Bandcamp. I agree with him entirely about RSD, I personally view it as a grift and don’t consider the numbers involved to be “limited” as they are usually in the multiple thousands. Speaking as an indie fan from the Peel era many bands never pressed that many of a title in total.

As a good example of a ‘manufactured collectable’ I’d cite Utopia Strong. Their self-produced live albums, limited to 250 numbered copies with their hand screen-printed covers and fully signed by the band will never go down in value. They sell-out on Bandcamp in about 10 minutes. That’s a good manufactured collectable! Andy Hay with his limited jazz albums with beautiful individually hand-painted sleeves too. This is the sort of stuff I want and I’ll happily take a risk on.

Similarly interesting 1st pressings, e.g. EBTG knocked the ball out of the park with Fuse recently, a surprisingly good comeback album from an old band. The copy one wants of that one is the Rough Trade exclusive with different cover art and signed by the band. IIRC the 500 copies sold-out on pre-order. This is the category Mike has missed IMO, but I notice from his weekly new stock video he gets very little if any signed stuff. It seems more a Bandcamp, Rough Trade, Assai kind of thing.

I’ve bought more signed vinyl in the past few years than the rest of my life combined. The internet seems to have brought artists far closer to their customers. I have got some older stuff bought new signed at the time (Smiths, Wedding Present, Wire etc) and found more second hand, but the sheer quantity available if you are fast enough out the gate now is really cool. Certainly my favourite category at the moment to the point I’m kind of pissed off if I can’t find a signed copy of a new/pre-order title that interests me!
 
Tony L said:
I think it depends what it is, and I certainly think Mike is missing Bandcamp.
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As a good example of a ‘manufactured collectable’ I’d cite Utopia Strong. Their self-produced live albums, limited to 250 numbered copies with their hand screen-printed covers and fully signed by the band will never go down in value.
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Agreed. And to me that's broadly similar to the small press indies of the 90s putting out comic books in editions of a few hundred - though pre-interwebs you'd have to order in advance from your local comic shop and cross your fingers they'd get a copy.

Of course 30 years later most of that stuff is forgotten and it's only the odd title that later because a hit that's worth anything...

Major labels like UME and Concord putting out 'limited' coloured vinyl editions of new releases just feels like the latest X-Men relaunch. Though it doesn't stop me buying them : )

What's your take on grading and slabbing?
 
paulfromcamden said:
Agreed. And to me that's broadly similar to the small press indies of the 90s putting out comic books in editions of a few hundred - though pre-interwebs you'd have to order in advance from your local comic shop and cross your fingers they'd get a copy.
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It’s also nothing new, e.g. the first issue of Electric Warrior came with a poster, various late ‘70s records were on coloured vinyl (Devo, Television, Police etc) and some came with a free 7” e.g. Elvis Costello, OMD’s Organisation etc. Some, e.g. OMD’s first album have so many different cover variants you can pretty much tell when and where they were bought! Inserts too, e.g. if you want a copy of Pixies Dolittle the first press with its 12”x12” lyric book and carrier bag is the one. They weren’t around for long.

As such I have no issue with manufactured collectables, but I’m incredibly wary of any reissues sold as such. They will always be secondary to the first press to my mind.

That said audiophile cuts have done exceptionally well for me. If I sort my collection on Discogs in descending median value 7 audiophile cuts get in the top 25. Including the #1 spot (Nimbus WYWH). I’ve only got these audiophile pressings as finding good originals of them was all but impossible even back in the ‘90s. Stuff like the Hoffman DCC Doors, they cost £30-35 a throw in the late ‘90s and no way in hell could you find a mint US 1st press in the UK for that. They’ve proven very good as US 1st pressings are even more rare and expensive and as maybe the next best thing they’ve increased in value very well. The one that surprises me is Deep Purple Made In Japan as a 1st press isn’t an impossible find in the UK. I’d expect £30-50 would get a pretty nice one with a bit of hunting. I saw the DCC at a hi-fi show and just bought it as I remembered liking it as a school kid. It’s a £250-400 record now!
 
For Bandcamp, if the music is aimed at 20 year olds, in 20 years time it may be very valuable. If it is aimed at 60 year olds, I doubt it will soar.
 
I've bought a few (new) Blue Orchids and House Of All releases recently. These are definitely aimed at a particular older demographic & I play 'em without any regret. I also have a few signed releases from the last couple of years (mostly from gigs & 'in-stores at Rough Trade); Do Nothing, Folly Group, Yard Act and the like. I, like Tony, am a bit gutted that I miss out on these from time to time, right now I'm on a hunt for releases by 'Deadletter', a great live act (with sax!) and I would very much like some physical copy in my hands...
 
Once the generation(s) of listeners that were in their teens to mid twenties when these albums were fiirst released have gone beyond their collecting years I think that the price of vinyl will absolutely plummet…. the demand just simply won’t exist.
 
Rug Doc said:
Once the generation(s) of listeners that were in their teens to mid twenties when these albums were fiirst released have gone beyond their collecting years I think that the price of vinyl will absolutely plummet…. the demand just simply won’t exist.
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That's the million dollar question isn't it - and has come up on PFM before.

The observation Mike makes that the prices for US punk records are being driven by people in their 50s/60s who always wanted the records but could never afford them is about right I reckon (a lot of Misfits 7"s were already insanely collectible when I started listening to them in the late 80s). Same for rare jungle 12"s.

But how many of the people paying $1000+ for grail Blue Note records were even born when they were released?

My guess is some stuff will fall away, some stuff will hold it's value and some stuff will be worth even more. Same as antiques, paintings, cars, etc.
 
paulfromcamden said:
The observation Mike makes that the prices for US punk records are being driven by people in their 50s/60s who always wanted the records but could never afford them is about right I reckon (a lot of Misfits 7"s were already insanely collectible when I started listening to them in the late 80s). Same for rare jungle 12"s.

But how many of the people paying $1000+ for grail Blue Note records were even born when they were released?

My guess is some stuff will fall away, some stuff will hold it's value and some stuff will be worth even more. Same as antiques, paintings, cars, etc.
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There is truth in all of it. It is also worth noting some stuff that failed to find any substantial market in its time is now highly sought-after, e.g. a lot of garage, psyche, Velvet Underground, obscure prog, Krautrock, punk, indie, techno etc. Far more people know who Sun Ra, Ash Ra Tempel, or Throbbing Gristle are right now than ever did in their time. To my mind once stuff like this comes back into focus it will never not be collectable.

My guess is it is the big stuff that will fade in and out over the years, not the rediscovered obscurities. As an investment I’d not swap my stack of Can albums for say a stack of Elvis or Buddy Holly. I really can’t see good condition original Can vinyl ever going down in value as there just wasn’t a lot of it to start with and musically it is highly influential right now. It has got to that ‘timeless’ status that jazz has where it appeals over multiple generations.

I’m sure Mike is exactly right about now wealthy aging people recapturing their youth, that is unquestionably a factor, but I think the long+-term stable will be that which has broken through culturally to all generations. Jazz is now the benchmark. I can say that pretty confidently as even at 60 I am way too young to have ‘been there’, the first jazz album I bought was Miles Davis Tutu in the mid-80s! My fairly vast collection of Blue Notes etc attained since (mostly reissues) are all back-cataloguing stuff that existed before I was born or when I was a tiny kid. Same with Velvet Underground, Can etc, I went back-cataloguing stuff I wasn’t around for, just as folk half my age or younger are doing now. This stuff is solid. Annoying as I know I will never find a mint US 1st press ‘unpeeled banana’ of the first VU album, and I’d love a copy. I’ve never even seen one in real life. Mike’s looked perfect, and I know he has a whole stack of them!
 
I would never view records as 'investments' any more than wine or vintage watches. I just want to be able to buy the music and enjoy it and hopefully move it along once I am bored without having to take a big loss. For people who think that you can't lose with some records, I suggest you study the history of tulips and baseball cards etc.

For investment, I prefer to have my money in conventional assets such as stocks and bonds that give me a yield and capital gain anyday.
 
Yeah I guess records as investments only works if you’re planning on selling one day. I’m not. (I’ll leave that job to some lucky offspring!).
 
For me, its more of a pride of ownership thing with collecting - Sort of a means to an end for some really...
 
It has always been very fluid with me; stuff comes in, some stuff stays forever, other stuff goes back out again. I have always bought, sold and traded to fund my own collecting and hopefully stick a few quid in my pocket. I’ll never walk past something I know I can double or treble my money on, it pays for the stuff I want to keep. It kept me afloat through the ‘80s and largely funds the hobby as a secondary income since. If I‘d never sold anything I’d need a proper warehouse to hold the stuff I’d bought. And a very rich donor! I have always sold a lot more than I keep.

PS Most record collectors are traders, most record dealers are collectors IME. The ones I know certainly are.
 
A very successful record store owner I know estimates he has something like 2,000-3,000 records. And no, he doesn't reckon he needs any more than that...
 
Tony L said:
It has always been very fluid with me; stuff comes in, some stuff stays forever, other stuff goes back out again. I have always bought, sold and traded to fund my own collecting and hopefully stick a few quid in my pocket. I’ll never walk past something I know I can double or treble my money on, it pays for the stuff I want to keep. It kept me afloat through the ‘80s and largely funds the hobby as a secondary income since. If I‘d never sold anything I’d need a proper warehouse to hold the stuff I’d bought. And a very rich donor! I have always sold a lot more than I keep.

PS Most record collectors are traders, most record dealers are collectors IME. The ones I know certainly are.
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In this respect I think it's quite similar to other vintage collectibles markets. My wife deals in vintage and high-end lighting and some mid century furniture and artefacts, and there's definitely an aspect of fluidity to ownership. Some stuff stays around longer, some doesn't, there's not that sense of possessive or permanent ownership.
 
hockman said:
A very successful record store owner I know estimates he has something like 2,000-3,000 records. And no, he doesn't reckon he needs any more than that...
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My current Discogs count is 3894 for everything, thats vinyl (including 7”, 10” & 12” singles etc), CDs and even the handful of music DVDs etc. I’ve not found how to sort by category in Discogs so no idea how it splits, but my guess is around 50/50 vinyl/CD (CD certainly far higher in playing length as I have a lot of classical and jazz box sets etc).

That isn’t a huge collection by any stretch, but that is because I curate heavily. I’ve no interest in having a foot and a half of DSOTM the way In Groove Mike has. I just want the best copy I can find of a given title, I’ll sell on the next best. Hardly any duplicates in my collection at all, though I do have a fair bit of stuff on both vinyl and CD.
 
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