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Oh Britain, what have you done (part ∞+25)?

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I think that fairly broad consensus has it that the Euro is one small financial crisis away from being seriously stress-tested.

What do you see coming down the line?
No different from the pound or however many other currencies then. Come October, are you betting on sterling or the euro? I'll give you a clue, I have savings in France. I earned them when a euro was worth 67p. It's now worth 91p. Oh, but the euro is struggling. Course it is. Excuse me while I leave about a year's salary in the Euro in preparation for the coming shitstorm.
 
I've converted a year's salary into tinned food, UHT milk, bottled water and a sack of doorknobs.
 
What the UK has at the moment is all the benefits of EU participation, minus the euro (which I gather you’re not keen on), minus Schengen (ditto), plus a rebate (which you presumably approve of), plus various other opt outs. Please explain how this is significantly different from what the EEC (aka common market, as joined by the UK in the 70s) used to be.

Please explain what these benefits are? Not much was mentioned ahead of the referendum, only negatives of leaving.

Regards the second section in bold. Are you suggesting there is no significant difference between the EU now and the EEC (aka common market, as joined by the UK in the 70s)?
 
No different from the pound or however many other currencies then. Come October, are you betting on sterling or the euro? I'll give you a clue, I have savings in France. I earned them when a euro was worth 67p. It's now worth 91p. Oh, but the euro is struggling. Course it is. Excuse me while I leave about a year's salary in the Euro in preparation for the coming shitstorm.

When I was working in France my contract was in sterling, but I was paid in Francs and then Euros. When the Euro launched it was around €1.60 to the pound, it’s currently €1.11.
 
No different from the pound or however many other currencies then. Come October, are you betting on sterling or the euro? I'll give you a clue, I have savings in France. I earned them when a euro was worth 67p. It's now worth 91p. Oh, but the euro is struggling. Course it is. Excuse me while I leave about a year's salary in the Euro in preparation for the coming shitstorm.

Quit while you are still ahead. Take it out and put it into gold.
 
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Please explain what these benefits are? Not much was mentioned ahead of the referendum, only negatives of leaving.

Regards the second section in bold. Are you suggesting there is no significant difference between the EU now and the EEC (aka common market, as joined by the UK in the 70s)?
Benefits: world’s largest free trade zone, so more trade between members. Common (highish) standards. Savings through shared central functions. Critical mass to defend own interests versus other world economies and largest multinationals. Etc.

No, i’m questioning Colin’s point that there are massive differences between the EEC that the UK joined and the UK’s current status. The really big differences between the EEC/EC and the EU have been either desired by the UK (Single Market) or dodged by the UK (euro, Schengen). There are differences, of course, but they don’t seem massive to me (most people would struggle to list many without resorting to Google). But let’s see what Colin comes up with.
 
This seems almost completely back to front:
- The EU is not throwing any client to the lions: the client decided to exercise its right to leave to investigate sunny uplands etc.
- “dated and pointless ideology” seems a perfect description of the core beliefs of UKIP, ERG and other Brexit movers and shakers.

But I do agree with you that these are dangerous times to be embarking on experiments.
Etc

Yes, fair enough, but what I meant that the EU is deliberately blocking progress towards negotiating a trade deal with the UK for the sake of ideology. All the Irish border stuff can wait, what the two sides should be throwing their all into is getting a trade deal tied up, and this for the sake of everyone. No one is getting any value from this standoff, and when the merde hits, it's going to hit us all much harder for it. Too much time has been uselessly squandered.

As for ideology on the brexit side, what is it? UKIP is spent, the current leader probably having spent too much of his career comparing the relative virtues of classic turntables on pfm, or some such.. Sure, Farage still needs to have his teeth drawn. There are the seeds of speculation that the next evictions from the Cons may well be from the hard-brexit faction and that Johnson will ditch the NI presbytarians in order to agree an all-Ireland regulatory area for food and agriculture and thus find a compromise. For all of his manifest faults, Johnson isn't an ideologist, he is a pragmatist.
 
EV,
The free trade deal, assuming that IS what the UK wants, will take years to negotiate (FTAs always do, because they’re complicated) so we have the WA -a temporary structure to accommodate the UK outside the EU proper while all this goes on. It reflects each side’s red lines in a reasonably rational way. The reason it has not been ratified is because the UK can’t decide which of the realistic options it prefers.

I have no doubt that Boris Johnson is ideologically “flexible”.
 
Yes, fair enough, but what I meant that the EU is deliberately blocking progress towards negotiating a trade deal with the UK for the sake of ideology. well, we started it with those Red Lines
All the Irish border stuff can wait, True it can, the Backstop will not happen unless the two sides do not reach an agreement
what the two sides should be throwing their all into is getting a trade deal tied up, and this for the sake of everyone but that cannot happen until we really leave

For all of his manifest faults, Johnson isn't an ideologist, he is a pragmatist NOW, THAT IS FUNNY.
 
Yes, fair enough, but what I meant that the EU is deliberately blocking progress towards negotiating a trade deal with the UK for the sake of ideology. All the Irish border stuff can wait, what the two sides should be throwing their all into is getting a trade deal tied up, and this for the sake of everyone. No one is getting any value from this standoff, and when the merde hits, it's going to hit us all much harder for it. Too much time has been uselessly squandered.

As for ideology on the brexit side, what is it? UKIP is spent, the current leader probably having spent too much of his career comparing the relative virtues of classic turntables on pfm, or some such.. Sure, Farage still needs to have his teeth drawn. There are the seeds of speculation that the next evictions from the Cons may well be from the hard-brexit faction and that Johnson will ditch the NI presbytarians in order to agree an all-Ireland regulatory area for food and agriculture and thus find a compromise. For all of his manifest faults, Johnson isn't an ideologist, he is a pragmatist.

I'm sitting here watching “The Death of Stalin” and frankly the revisionism, double-think and the sheer warped logic and world view in your post complements it perfectly.

EU blocking a deal. They agreed one but the Tories couldn’t confirm their side.
Irish border not important and can wait!
UKIP has been replaced with the Brexit Ltd Co. And there’s every chance they will have a pact with the tories in the next election.
Expelling the hard Brexiteers for the Tory party!
Johnson a pragmatist!

ET, you inhabit in a different world from the rest of us.
 
Yes, fair enough, but what I meant that the EU is deliberately blocking progress towards negotiating a trade deal with the UK for the sake of ideology. All the Irish border stuff can wait, what the two sides should be throwing their all into is getting a trade deal tied up, and this for the sake of everyone. No one is getting any value from this standoff, and when the merde hits, it's going to hit us all much harder for it. Too much time has been uselessly squandered.

As for ideology on the brexit side, what is it? UKIP is spent, the current leader probably having spent too much of his career comparing the relative virtues of classic turntables on pfm, or some such.. Sure, Farage still needs to have his teeth drawn. There are the seeds of speculation that the next evictions from the Cons may well be from the hard-brexit faction and that Johnson will ditch the NI presbytarians in order to agree an all-Ireland regulatory area for food and agriculture and thus find a compromise. For all of his manifest faults, Johnson isn't an ideologist, he is a pragmatist.
Johnson is a narcissist and a nihilist.
 
Taxi for Amber (not before time and presumably not with Johnson driving).

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...signs-from-cabinet-and-quits-tories-06dqxcjct

At least six cabinet ministers are understood to share her views and at least one is still considering whether to resign as well.

Rudd says she took a job in Johnson’s cabinet “in good faith” and accepted that “no-deal had to be on the table” because that was the “best chance” of getting a new deal from Brussels.

But she goes on: “I no longer believe leaving with a deal is the government’s main objective.”
 
Taxi for Amber (not before time and presumably not with Johnson driving).

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...signs-from-cabinet-and-quits-tories-06dqxcjct

At least six cabinet ministers are understood to share her views and at least one is still considering whether to resign as well.

Rudd says she took a job in Johnson’s cabinet “in good faith” and accepted that “no-deal had to be on the table” because that was the “best chance” of getting a new deal from Brussels.

But she goes on: “I no longer believe leaving with a deal is the government’s main objective.”

Rudd will slime into the Cabinet again, if the Tory Party remain in power when Johnson is chopped out.

Jack
 
EV,
The free trade deal, assuming that IS what the UK wants, will take years to negotiate (FTAs always do, because they’re complicated) so we have the WA -a temporary structure to accommodate the UK outside the EU proper while all this goes on. It reflects each side’s red lines in a reasonably rational way. The reason it has not been ratified is because the UK can’t decide which of the realistic options it prefers.

I have no doubt that Boris Johnson is ideologically “flexible”.

FTAs do indeed take years to negotiate, and that is exactly why negotiating one is what they should have been doing for some long while now. Three years have been squandered over ideology and 'red lines'. As I recall agreement of a WA would have roughly preserved the status quo whilst those talks were progressing. The problem is not in the deciding which option, because there is only one on offer, and it is utterly unnacceptable to the UK by any reasonable definition.

I'm sitting here watching “The Death of Stalin” and frankly the revisionism, double-think and the sheer warped logic and world view in your post complements it perfectly.

EU blocking a deal. They agreed one but the Tories couldn’t confirm their side.
Irish border not important and can wait!
UKIP has been replaced with the Brexit Ltd Co. And there’s every chance they will have a pact with the tories in the next election.
Expelling the hard Brexiteers for the Tory party!
Johnson a pragmatist!

ET, you inhabit in a different world from the rest of us.

Well, that is the first time I have been compared to Stalin. Not entirely sure that I'm flattered, but such comparisons slip off the tongue quite easily in the febrile nowadays, so I shouldn't be surprised.

Yes, the EU are blocking a deal. They might have agreed one amongst themselves and offered it as the only option, but an agreement is not an agreement until and unless it is actually agreed, until which time it is merely a proposal. Whilst the EU side doesn't involve the actual people who will be affected by it, just the rigid strictures of the EU27s political leadership immovably presided over by the unelected EU executive, over here in our just about functioning actual democracy it is required first to win the approval of the parliamentary representatives of the people. On three occasions those representatives rejected the proposal for the very good reason that it was littered with elephant traps, man traps and, most importantly, cage traps that would have left the UK at the mercy of EU oversight without representation, potentially in perpetuity.

The Irish border could indeed have waited. The FTA might well have rendered the problem defunct, its ratification could have been conditional upon a border settlement, and the status quo would anyway have continued.

I have acknowledged Farages teeth, but they can be drawn by good strategy.

Yes, and yes.

Johnson is a narcissist and a nihilist.

I didn't say that he wasn't.
 
My understanding is that the defence mechanisms that have been put in place since the last crash are far more robust, but I grant you that the express train that is bearing down on us may well overwhelm everything, and make Brexit look like a summer picnic in the process. The BoE is nominally independent, but I think you'll find not quite as much so in practical terms. The government, after all, appoints the governor, and the current incumbent has been behaving as though he were actually a part of the government, and very much not independent. However, the UK is still threoretically in a better position to respond to crisis than, say, the French, Greek, Spanish, Irish or Italian governments, because their hands are fully tied both by their membership of the Euro, and by EU/ECB defict rules, whereas the UK is in charge of its own fiscal levers. The ECB, under the current rules, and already with QE wound up and negative interest rates, has absolutely no fiscal ammunition left it its bunkers, and the combination of a stonking world recession and Brexit could easily prove decisive for the end of the Euro. This is all widely acknowledged amongst economists, I'm not just making it up.

Anyway, we'll all see in due course. It just does look to me as though the EU is going to be willing to throw its best client to the lions at the very moment that the global financial cesspit is about to explode in its face, all for the sake of a dated and pointless ideology to which it is fatally and inseperably wedded.

I think that is wishful thinking
 
Yes I think we all see that the Irish border bit is particularly jarring. Easy comment as he is completely unaffected by it but that is how a true brexiteer works.It is all about themselves and being insulated from their actions.

Elsewhere Soames comments are so apt. I have a sneaking regard for him. Heard him speak a few times in parliament and their appears to be a sharp working mind. His line about Boris showing the way in relation to voting against ones party was priceless.

Does anybody know how large the marches were today? The BBC seem to be ignoring it whilst RTE have it on their front page https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0907/1074455-brexit/

No doubt Blowjobs behaviour is causing a mess. One can only guess but maybe he will replace all the resigners with Brexit party candidates to cement the new Tory party direction.
Even ET is choking a bit on his fine wine at how it is unfolding. He endevours to lighten the proceedings here with ramblings of strange thoughts etc to keep our mind and his off the smell of poo all round the place.

I'm sitting here watching “The Death of Stalin” and frankly the revisionism, double-think and the sheer warped logic and world view in your post complements it perfectly.

EU blocking a deal. They agreed one but the Tories couldn’t confirm their side.
Irish border not important and can wait!
UKIP has been replaced with the Brexit Ltd Co. And there’s every chance they will have a pact with the tories in the next election.
Expelling the hard Brexiteers for the Tory party!
Johnson a pragmatist!

ET, you inhabit in a different world from the rest of us.
 
Yes, the EU are blocking a deal. They might have agreed one amongst themselves and offered it as the only option, but an agreement is not an agreement until and unless it is actually agreed
What planet are you on? The EU agreed May's deal. It was the UK that rejected May's deal - 3 times. Or did that not happen?
 
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