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Lance Armstrong to lose his TDF titles?

Except proceedings of some sort or another have been active against him for a long, long time. Tried, failed, tried, failed, tried, failed. You make it sound like he's bailing at the first hint of action against him. Not the case. (And I don't see where he has said anything similar to the "ploy" contrivance of yours; read his statement if you're interested in what he actually has said. It contains the words "enough is enough"...)
AFAIK that's not true: this is the first action brought by USADA. There have been other attempts by other bodies, but this is the first by USADA. Anyway, I didn't say he was bailing at the first hint of action - not his style. He certainly has, with the backing of UCI, tried (through his legal team) to question USADA's competence/jurisdiction in the case. He failed in that attempt when a US federal court recently dismissed his case. His latest statements, of course, don't dwell on this aspect.

Not the same at all. More like if the state brings a case against you based on "x" evidence, fails to get a conviction, then brings you up on the same or similar charges based on "y" evidence" fails again, etc., until finally they buy off some known crooks who will testify against you to save their own hides.

See the previous point: AFAIK this is the first case brought by USADA. As to your other point, you don't know who the 10 USADA witnesses are, so dismissing them all as known crooks might seem excessive at this stage. There are rumours that they include respected people like Hincapie (who has never tested positive). Besides, plea bargaining is a well-established practice in the US legal system.

Bizarre. Try "You're probably wondering why I pulled you over... well, I got you on radar 118 times and my radar gun said you were doing 5 under the limit each time. But I still know you were speeding, so I gave another guy a reduced fine to swear you were speeding too."
Nothing bizarre about it. Your defense of LA was that if everybody is doing it and nobody is getting caught, then it's OK and the anti-doping guys should go home. You are now suggesting a US agency is corrupting witnesses testifying under oath: pretty serious allegation, to put it mildly.

Presumably the testing body saw the evidence and made a ruling at those times, yes? If the ruling was He's Ok to ride, see previous directive to "get over it and move on". (And I can tell you have never worked in a lab environment, if you think samples that are "screwed up" should still be considered valid.)

Yes, the body in question ruled all OK, nothing to see here, ride on.
You're also right that I've never worked in a lab environment (not exactly one of my career priorities, TBH) but you will notice that I haven't said that screwed up samples should be valid for use in a court case. Besides the interesting nyvelocity article put up by Paul R and foxwelljsly (the second one) makes the point that the samples were actually not corrupted. The Australian doping expert interviewed in that article concludes he has no doubt in his mind that LA was using EPO in 1999. But these tests were conducted many years after the event.

It seems that it has been relatively easy for a well-organized team to test clean: EPO has a short half life, some of the designer drugs are hard to detect, transfusions can be masked, and some athletes seem to have enjoyed certain privileges when it comes to testing protocols (like 20' in the shower unattended or hard to find addresses). Cheaters only get caught when they make a mistake. Rather than just focusing on the vials and catching people red-handed, USADA has approached the matter through testimonials and circumstantial evidence. Nothing shocking about that: it happens in trials all the time when there is no smoking gun.

The defense of "never tested positive" is constantly trotted out. It was used by Marion Jones all the time, with some reason: she never failed a test either, despite confessing later to systematic doping (she had one positive towards the end of her career in 2006, but the B sample was negative, so case closed). The only thing it proves is that the team has a rigorous program. Come to think of it, Marion Jones was only really caught because she ran out of money and was involved in a check scam: despite being fingered in the BALCO investigation in 2004, being accused by Victor Conte (head of BALCO) as being one of his clients and by her then-husband who described her doping, she got away for several more years: "never failed a drug test". The case against her relied on circumstantial evidence and accusations from dodgy characters like Conte and Hunter. Here again, the USADA and federal investigators were persistent. Jones only folded when confronted with the check scam (2007) and accused of perjury. Do you seriously believe Marion Jones did not dope? ("yebbut Armstrong has not confessed so this is a lousy parallel")

Perjury in a federal investigation is serious: Marion Jones went to jail for it. I believe this is a big part of why Armstrong has just thrown in the towel, but this is just speculation for now. More facts will come out in the next 6 to 12 months (USADA have said they will go public once the cases against Bruyneel et alia are over). In the meantime, if you want to believe Armstrong has never doped, you are of course perfectly entitled to that point of view.
 
TDF titles are awarded by Amaury SO .. but I don't see how either could avoid stripping Armstrong of the titles if the UCI or the IOC accepts the WADA decision...

Isn't Amaury letting Riis' win stand even though he admits to doping?
 
Isn't Amaury letting Riis' win stand even though he admits to doping?

Good point. They seem to have first taken it away, then realized that they couldn't because of some statute of limitations (8 years). They have left his name on the record as a winner, with an asterisk on some tables showing he subsequently confessed to doping. All a bit complicated. Maybe the fact that number 2 was Ullrich and number 3 was Virenque made them realize the futility of it.

Riis was another one who used the services of Dr Ferrari.
 
Yeah, you're right. It was a pretty poor thing for him to have said, but there's more to the guy than this single lapse might indicate. I overstepped.

Thanks kh. I have a lot of time for Kimmage, not just because he's a local here, but if you read his full body of work from the book on through his press articles across the years, he comes across as a fairly open and honest individual, albeit one who feels bitter about - as he sees it - being forced out of the sport through not being willing to join in the doping culture.

There is as you say, a lot more to Armstrong. Fwiw I think he is an extremely capable, highly driven, and intelligent man - who would come to the top in the sport whether it was fully clean, or thrown open to the full bio/pharma set of tools and tricks. As an outsider to cycling, I just find it too much to believe that he, clean, consistently outran the best of the rest doped to the hilt.
 
That's the nub of the matter, could a clean Armstrong beat a doped everyone else- no, of course he couldn't.
 
If they were all at, as seems likely and Armstrong has supplied satisfactory samples for testing then he should be left with his TdF titles. The word of others, uncorroborated by forensic evidence is not enough.
 
If they were all at, as seems likely and Armstrong has supplied satisfactory samples for testing then he should be left with his TdF titles. The word of others, uncorroborated by forensic evidence is not enough.

Never thought I'd come round to that way of thinking, but based on your logic there - yes absolutely. Park the damn thing at this stage, leave Armstrong alone as the best rider of his generation (clean or unclean) and then either make sure the sport is genuinely clean from here on in, or go full open chemical warfare and let them get on with it.
 
The word of others, uncorroborated by forensic evidence is not enough.
But there is forensic evidence, as discussed up thread. And the word of others would be enough to get you life for murder, so why not for something as minor as cheating at sport?

More importantly this isn't about Armstrong, it's about the others on the list who are still active in professional cycling. Frank Schleck failed a drugs test at the TdF last month, his team is run by Johann Bruyneel and employs Dr Pedro Cela, who are both on the USADA list alongside Armstrong.

If there were a convenient place to draw a line, I would concur with drawing a line.

Paul
 
Agreed, the time to draw the line is now. ( If that is you believe this years winner was clean!)
 
As an outsider to cycling, I just find it too much to believe that he, clean, consistently outran the best of the rest doped to the hilt.
Despite the apparent perception that I'm an "Armstrong believer", I sort of agree, except that I do see it possible for someone to come along who is such a freak that they actually could, clean, defeat a dirty field. Is Armstrong that guy? Hard to say.

The thing is, Armstrong is a bit of a pop culture icon over here. He's in commercials, has cameo appearances in movies – in a lot of minds (mostly among people who don't follow cycling) he's an example of the whole American spirit, excellence in the face of adversity, git-r-done thing. I get that too - I really really want his story to be real, but I'm not naïve enough to stand up and proclaim he rode clean. As I've said before, I'm just a data guy. If the data doesn't show me dirt, if he rode drugged but beat the system, then it's Armstrong-1, system-0, and time for system to up their game.

What I am dead set against is the notion that winning the TDF is tantamount to signing on for a lifetime of expensive and emotionally damaging litigation and hounding. It is very much a case of guilty until proven innocent; everyone cheats, it's just a matter of catching them, and even if they aren't caught, they still cheated. When I say the whole thing is broken, that's what I mean.

"Congratulations - you won! Your life is now officially a living hell until we see fit to stop investigating you, and we never, ever will! Champagne?"

(I know the Brits will come back and say, "Untrue! Our Bradley won clean, fair and square!" Which puts us back to your question: can someone, clean, outrun the best of the rest doped to the hilt? If Wiggins can do/did it, why is it so hard to believe Armstrong did it?)
 
I have no idea if Wiggo was clean, I expect that he was based on the KW/H/kg figures from this year's tour. These were down 7% on previous years, the first time they have been this low for almost a decade.

So either riders were clean, or they all caught the same 7% cold as each other.
 
What I am dead set against is the notion that winning the TDF is tantamount to signing on for a lifetime of expensive and emotionally damaging litigation and hounding.
I don't think this is the case. There has to be cause.

Which puts us back to your question: can someone, clean, outrun the best of the rest doped to the hilt?
There is little evidence that there is very much 'doped to the hilt' going on nowadays. I think the innovation of the 'blood passport' is making it very difficult to successfully dope. It will be interesting to (eventually) see the USADA evidence regarding this aspect of their Armstrong case.

Paul
 
It will be interesting to (eventually) see the USADA evidence regarding this aspect of their Armstrong case.

Paul

Why bother with evidence, he is clearly a cheat and always will be until he proves to your satisfaction that he is not - i.e. never.
 
Do you really believe he was clean? That his steroid and EPO tests weren't real? Do you really think a clean Armstrong beat a dirty Jan Ulrich?

I agree we are quick to hang him out, but the weight of possibility (sic) just isn't in his favour.
 
I have no idea if Wiggo was clean, I expect that he was based on the KW/H/kg figures from this year's tour. These were down 7% on previous years, the first time they have been this low for almost a decade.

So either riders were clean, or they all caught the same 7% cold as each other.

Hang on , they've been dopng for years before that (2002) according to what I've read and what you've written ..
 
So either a clean Lance beat a load of doped-up riders who finished in 2nd/3rd/4th/whatever; or a doped-up Lance beat a load of other doped-up riders.

He's still the winner :)
 
Why bother with evidence, he is clearly a cheat and always will be until he proves to your satisfaction that he is not - i.e. never.
The evidence leads to the conclusion.

Until I read the Landis interview I thought it was possible he was clean. Clearly YMMV.

Paul
 
I don't think this is the case. There has to be cause.
Possibly now. But the Armstrong case is a high-profile legacy issue, and I believe it's one the agencies can't afford lose. Had Armstrong continued on with the case, and won, it still wouldn't be over. It would never be over.

There is little evidence that there is very much 'doped to the hilt' going on nowadays. I think the innovation of the 'blood passport' is making it very difficult to successfully dope. It will be interesting to (eventually) see the USADA evidence regarding this aspect of their Armstrong case.
I agree new regulations and awareness are likely having an effect. However, I think the effect is more one of re-defining what "to the hilt" means. I suspect drug cheats are still indulging to the maximum they feel they can safely get away with, even if that max is reduced compared to 20 years ago.
 


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