Trouble is I'll realistically be too old for a mortgage by then. There is no way I am saddling myself with having to work into my 70s, especially in a job that relies on fully functioning knees and crawling around on the floor for hours on end.
Housing market
- Thread starter matt j
- Start date
Trouble is I'll realistically be too old for a mortgage by then. There is no way I am saddling myself with having to work into my 70s, especially in a job that relies on fully functioning knees and crawling around on the floor for hours on end.
Post covid levels? They were too high then and the interest rates were too low. When covid came the government made things worse by messing with the stamp duty. It’s nuts.
It's pretty certain from where I'm sat that any government is keen to keep this ponzi going at any cost. Praying for a huge market crash is wasted time and energy, if such a crash occurs then something so horrific will have happened that buying a cheap house will be bottom of the priority list.
simon g
Older, wiser but no longer retired
I think you're right to query those figures. Actual job ads below. Glassdoor suggest around £43k.
https://www.totaljobs.com/jobs-at/british-gas/jobs
Southeastern
She called me baby, like an old romantic
They didn't mess things up for Tory donors and members who are the biggest landlords in the country...it was all very intentional. The Tories will always stabilise the housing marketing for their pals, so a big crash will (sadly) be unlikely happen but boy I hope I am wrong and it does.
andyoz
pfm Member
But they didn't manage that in the early 90's...well at least not without years of pain in between.
This issue is too big for even a government to sort....Caveat Emptor with any purchase. No one moans when their house price is on the upside...
This is why the government, all governments, work so hard to prop up domestic housing values. People use them as a barometer for financial well being. Any government that allowed (say) my house value to decline by (say) £40k would have caused me to lose £40k in many homeowners minds (It's me pension, innit?) so they would not be reelected.
mandryka
pfm Member
House purchases are sizeable long term investments, not a way to get rich quick. I guess that what will happen is that interest rates will fall and in 2024 they will be very low again. House prices will fall and in 2024 they will start to rise again.
Crisis. What crisis? Some figure I saw said that mortgage payments will increase for the average family by £5k a year. That's the same as the average spend on a two week holiday and only slightly more than the average spend on cars. So, they'll go to Blackpool instead of Mallorca and they'll keep the old banger a bit longer. BTL landlords will just increase the rent a bit and make a bit less profit -- BTL is a business, like all businesses there's feast and famine. This is not a crisis, it's just a time to tighten the belt.
The election will be at the end of 2024. By that time house prices will be on the up again and interest rates will be coming down. There will be tax cuts. Sunak will present himself as the man who got Britain back on the rails. A safe pair of hands.
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martin clark
pinko bodger
I've been playing Cassandra to younger colleagues for the last couple of years on this. Brings me no pleasure to see the actual trends, now baked-in due to rampant idiocy.
And re - various reporting of 'there may be a recession coming' NO. Its been baked-in, and here, and observable in last 5months + if you work in anything allied with Construction. I can post graphs if asked. And that is a shite state of affairs because - while Construction - and everything allied, professions and suppliers - is always the first to fall over the cliff: £ 1 spent on it in the UK, is £3.50 of wider economic activity generated, wholly within the UK.
tl;dr: We've ...lost one of our largest remaining engines.
you know - remaining after than that self-inflicted Brexit utter ****ing idiocy. which has also significantly contributed to present issues in construction uk.
And re - various reporting of 'there may be a recession coming' NO. Its been baked-in, and here, and observable in last 5months + if you work in anything allied with Construction. I can post graphs if asked. And that is a shite state of affairs because - while Construction - and everything allied, professions and suppliers - is always the first to fall over the cliff: £ 1 spent on it in the UK, is £3.50 of wider economic activity generated, wholly within the UK.
tl;dr: We've ...lost one of our largest remaining engines.
you know - remaining after than that self-inflicted Brexit utter ****ing idiocy. which has also significantly contributed to present issues in construction uk.
mandryka
pfm Member
Why won't inflation get back to 2%? When America forces through a negotiated settlement in Ukraine energy prices will fall, grain prices will fall.
But yes, if interest rates stay at 5% for a while then I am sure property prices will adjust, and growth will be slower than it was in 2021, 2019 . . .
Ponty
pfm Member
If we start seeing mass repos with inflation sub 5%, I reckon they’ll cut. As you say the problem will be the pound. A 6% base rate is going to wipe out an awful lot of people (absurd as that sounds), which is the only way those who want a proper crash are going to get one.
andyoz
pfm Member
Some people I talk to (younger ones mainly) literally think this is a wee blip and it'll return to sub 2% mortgage rates....the game has changed.
Ponty
pfm Member
They could be right. There’s so much debt that to flush it out would (will?) cause armageddon. Too many moving parts to know how it will play out. The days of throwing mortgage holders (I hesitate to call them home owners) to the wolves are probably behind us IMHO.
Ponty
pfm Member
From the evening standard…
Persimmon reports rising cancellation rates as rising interest rates bite
FTSE 100 house builder Persimmon has pointed to “recent elevated cancellation rates” in a trading update in which it stood by its existing guidance to sell between 14,500 and 15,000 homes this year.
The York-based company said “rising interest rates and broader economic uncertainty are clearly impacting mortgage lending and customer behaviour” as it described market conditions as “more challenging”.
Its rate of cancelled sales rose to 28% from 21% in the last six weeks as rising interest rates made mortgages more expensive and introduced “uncertainty” in the market, while the government’s Help to Buy scheme, designed to help open access to the housing ladder, is now closed to new applicants.
Persimmon reports rising cancellation rates as rising interest rates bite
FTSE 100 house builder Persimmon has pointed to “recent elevated cancellation rates” in a trading update in which it stood by its existing guidance to sell between 14,500 and 15,000 homes this year.
The York-based company said “rising interest rates and broader economic uncertainty are clearly impacting mortgage lending and customer behaviour” as it described market conditions as “more challenging”.
Its rate of cancelled sales rose to 28% from 21% in the last six weeks as rising interest rates made mortgages more expensive and introduced “uncertainty” in the market, while the government’s Help to Buy scheme, designed to help open access to the housing ladder, is now closed to new applicants.
farfromthesun
pfm Member
Apart from mortgages, credit cards, or loans - what was there back then that was so easily available and enticing as the myriad schemes that are around today? HP cars, Klarna, Buy Now Pay later and all that stuff...if it had existed, people would have used it. The notion (and I am not suggesting it is your notion) that people were more frugal or financially responsible back then was likely a lot to do with the fact that these schemes simply did not exist.