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Grexit - will it happen or not?

More incisive Europe commentary from The Telegraph, by their very own Katie Hopkins (without the txt speak)- Judith Woods.

Judith Woods: Why we won't be holidaying in the Med this year-

Forget the uncertainly surrounding the Grexit - I can’t face confronting the migrant misery on the beaches of Sicily
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When I take my children abroad to sample other cultures, I picture long al-fresco lunches and picturesquely crumbling churches, not the sight of the desperate and the dying being fished from the waters.
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Pity the Welsh- she's going there this year instead.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/f...-wont-be-holidaying-in-the-Med-this-year.html
 
Hook said:
The IMF says there will be no deal without further cuts to the pension system (and/or increases to the VAT). On the other hand, the current Greek government insists they've been dealt a bad hand by previous incompetent administrations, and are asking for more time to deal with systemic corruption and tax evasion by its wealthiest citizens.

The IMF says they are done negotiating, and the ball is in the Greek court. IMO, the Greek government has little to no room for further cuts, not without risking riots in the street, the falling of the government, and even the possibility of a National Socialist-style coup. The pipeline deal with Putin is chump change compared to what's needed for long-term investment and growth of the Greek economy, but it is a reminder that a Greek exit could have more than just a financial impact on Europe.

I sincerely hope that what we are hearing from the IMF is mostly public posturing. The smart thing for them to do is extend the June 30th deadline, continue with the short-term relief, and develop a strategy for long-term replacement of government subsidies with job creation. If the pension system only supported the pensioners, then additional cuts (e.g., raising the minimum retirement age north of 60) could again be considered. But the only real way out of this mess, as in so many other poor countries around the world, is jobs (and hope) for young people.
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I don't normally take part in these arguments, because dealing with the pfm pro-austerity club is too depressing. However, I agree with most of the things you have said in your post.

I am glad that the Greeks have finally told the IMF to shove their interfering right-wing claws up their ideological arses and have gone to the Russians for help. I don't trust Putin, but I trust the IMF even less.

If Greece financially fails and leaves the EU, it will show the rest of the countries that they are all potentially expendable.

International banks are the only institutions that the UK government thinks should be impregnable. Hence we keep having to pay up when things go wrong, due to the criminal acts of the people who work for them, instead of jailing the f*****s.

If there is a Grexit, I hope it galvanizes the people of the UK to vote to leave the EU.

I am half German, half English and was born in Holland, so in a real sense I am a true European. However, I value political and economic independence. Why the hell should England have decisions made for it by people and institutions outside of the country?

Vivienne Westwood's fashion campaign this year is called Politicians Are Criminals. I haven't got a clue what she thinks about the EU, but she is right about politicians.

The current government steals money from us via their policies and makes sure we get less and less in return. Labour would do exactly the same thing, which is why I don't bother voting for them any more.

Cameron and Osborne are probably laughing at the British people right now, actually to be more precise the English and Welsh, because the Scots have got rid of most of their Tory MPs. The pair must think that we are morons for letting them get away with it.

It was great to see Charlotte Church and Caroline Lucas put forward an anti-austerity message at the London demo today. Meanwhile Osborne and IDS are going to cut welfare for the disabled. What nasty, horrible ****wits they are.

Jack
 
Massive anti-austerity march in London and I expect the same in Greece, do we have so much in common? Is it rising debt ratios that place a leading economic power in Europe in the same basket as the basket case of Europe?
 
merlin said:
Greece. The father of democracy. Failing, as democracies world wide sail headlong towards similar implosions.

What lesson does the world take from this?
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You must pay your taxes. High earners cannot be allowed to avoid taxes. Corruption impoverishes the whole nation. Your ratio of civil servants to total population cannot exceed a certain percentage. Etc.

Greece might have invented a form of democracy 2500 years ago, but that was a long time ago and not very relevant to Greece today. The country has since been occupied by every empire in the book. One of the consequences of this is that the Greeks (on the whole; generalizations are always exaggerated) have developed a great skill at resisting any form of central authority.
 
I do hope the Greeks can hold on until the Spanish elections in December. And I suspect a lot of the CRISIS! CRISIS! approach of the Troika is based on hoping to have this sorted before there are potentially 2 committed anti-austerity governments.
 
KC Cantiaci said:
Arghhhhhhh........how many friggin times have you got to be told.....IT WASN'T £27BN!!
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The point of the ERM mistake though is not really the monetary cost but the impact it had on the economy and the recession it caused, or at best massively exacerbated, and the associated unemployment, hardship and hysteresis effects. Arguing about the number is like arguing about how gently or not someone shot you in the face.

Was it more or less damaging than the Austerity mistakes of 2010 to 2012? Hard to say although they are both huge, elective, self-inflicted blunders and clearly in the handful of very worst mistakes by UK Chancellors and *many* orders of magnitude worse than mistakes made by Gordon Brown.
 
matthewr said:
The point of the ERM mistake though is not really the monetary cost but the impact it had on the economy and the recession it caused, or at best massively exacerbated, and the associated unemployment, hardship and hysteresis effects. Arguing about the number is like arguing about how gently or not someone shot you in the face.

Was it more or less damaging than the Austerity mistakes of 2010 to 2012? Hard to say although they are both huge, elective, self-inflicted blunders and clearly in the handful of very worst mistakes by UK Chancellors and *many* orders of magnitude worse than mistakes made by Gordon Brown.
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Frankly this is bollocks. Given that the ERM was the precursor to monetary union and the Euro, and several EU member states have managed subsequently to get themselves locked in to the Euro at the "wrong" rate with diasterous consequences all round, it is disingenuous to blame Lamont for the ERM debacle, which was at least short term and transitory.
 
I assume matthew means the mistake of being in the ERM, against Thatcher's best instincts. It's essentially why she was chucked.

I think the ERM had cross-party support. If Brown had been chancellor he would have made the same 'mistake'.

Paul
 
Lamont's mistakes are less "bollocks" and more commonly accepted facts of economic history. It was his policy, his ill-chosen rate against the DM and his mishandling of the whole thing up to and including Black Wednesday. Certainly he doesn't get a pass because of other mistakes made by other people years later.

Go back and read his Mansion House speech in 1991 when you have a moment.
 
There is plenty of cash sloshing around to sort the Greek crisis.
The EU will resist to the death because Italy, Spain, Portugal and then perhaps the French deciding they too don't wish to play this stupid game any more.

Now that would be a massive crisis, and just what is required.

Cash can always be found for wars or for bailing out the finance sector, but never for paying pensions, wages or keeping hospitals open.

Many in Europe are waking up to this reality and God help those who've imposed this austerity when they do.
 
Paul R said:
I think the ERM had cross-party support. If Brown had been chancellor he would have made the same 'mistake'.
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Except his closest economic adviser was a certain FT leader writer who was against the ERM and drafted Brown's "Golden Rules" and "Key Tests" that kept us out of the Euro when Blair wanted us to join.

Which is why Ed Balls is on the two most important people who kept us out of the Euro (the other being John Major).
 
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